NBA GPP Green Light 3-6-18

Welcome to another Tuesday edition of the NBA GPP Green Light! Unlike most Tuesdays, we have a healthy eight games on tonight's slate, and the rest of the schedule remains fairly balanced the rest of the week. All of tonight's games have projected totals over 200 points, with the Nets at Warriors and Pelicans at Clippers topping the charts at 230 and 237 points respectively. The only game that comes in below 215 points is the Heat at Wizards, making tonight a slate with a lot of great games to target. The Raptors, Trail Blazers, Warriors, Clippers, Rockets, Nuggets, and Pelicans all have team totals projected over 110 points, making them great teams to attack. We only have three teams on this slate that are engaged in the Great Tank Race of 2018, plus the Nets, so we should get close games across the board.

DK Salary: $7,500 / FD Salary: $7,900

Tonight's matchup between the Clippers and Pelicans has a lot of fantasy goodness to attack, along with playoff implications, and is an absolutely amazing game to target as one of the late night hammers. I love pretty much everyone from both sides of this game, but Tobias Harris is my favorite option of them all (outside of Brow, of course). Harris has been outstanding since joining the Clippers 12 games ago and he is averaging 19 points on 48.3 percent shooting in those games. He is coming into tonight's game on the heels of a huge outing against the Nets, where he posted 26 points with eight rebounds, three blocks, three steals, and two assists in 38 minutes. He has been great over the last ten games, with at least 35 fantasy points in six of them, and he has scored 20-plus points in five of those games. He has pulled down at least eight rebounds in six of those ten games, as well. Harris has been the beneficiary of Danilo Gallinari and Avery Bradley being sidelined by an injury, as he is averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute on a 25 percent usage rate in 139.3 minutes without them on the floor. While the thought of using a frontcourt player against the Pelicans and Anthony Davis sounds daunting, the matchup numbers tell a rather different story. The Pelicans have been bad against power forwards all season long, allowing 48.03 fantasy points per game to the position, and over the last ten games, they have been especially bad. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency to power forwards over the last ten games, giving up 28.1 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.4 blocks and 44.7 percent shooting, including 41.7 percent from three, over that span. They really struggle against spot-up shooters, as well, ranking as a 24th percentile defense against the play. Tobias is spotting up on over 30 percent of his possessions this season, where he is averaging 5.8 points per game. I am hoping that Harris is one of the overlooked players from this game, as he is someone I will have a lot of exposure to.

DK Salary: $8,000 / FD Salary: $7,900

As I mentioned above, tonight's nightcap games are two that have a lot of fantasy goodness, but the matchup between the Clippers and Pelicans is expected to stay much closer than the Nets at Warriors. Because of that, getting multiple players from both sides of this game is a very viable strategy. I already outlined my favorite Clipper tonight, Tobias Harris, but now I am going to outline my second-favorite one here. Jordan's performances of late have been a mixed bag, as he went off against the Knicks and Nets while struggling against teams like Houston and Denver, but tonight he gets an excellent matchup that he should have no issues producing in. Outside of the poor Denver performance, Jordan has pulled down double-digit rebounds in each of his last ten games and he has scored at least 40 fantasy points in six of his last ten games. Jordan is seeing a significant boost since the All-Star break with Blake Griffin gone, with Bradley and Gallinari off the court as well, as he is averaging a massive 1.36 fantasy points per minute in 116.5 minutes. While the Pelicans look like a league-average matchup on paper, the story is entirely different if you narrow it down to the "post-Cousins" stretch of games for them. Over the last ten games, the Pelicans have been one of the worst rebounding teams, as they have allowed opponents to gobble up 50.4 rebounds per game. They are also allowing 52.2 points in the paint and 13.8 second-chance points per game during that span. Because of his increased production post-All-Star break, and the improved matchup, Jordan seems just a touch underpriced tonight, making him a great GPP target.

DK Salary: $6,800 / FD Salary: $7,300

Because the Charlotte Hornets are a team that no one ever likes to talk about or pay attention to, for the most part, you may not realize that Nicolas Batum has been a tear recently. Batum is averaging 9.4 assists per game over the last five games, a 4.1 assist increase over his season average, and he has notched three double-doubles in his last four games. He has been crashing the boards, as well, and has pulled down at least five rebounds in eight of the last ten games. His ability to rack up peripherals across the board has always made him an interesting option for DFS but now that he is racking up assists, he has a really high ceiling. He has notched at least 40 fantasy points in three of his last five games, including 46.25 against the Sixers two games ago. He is playing a solid amount of minutes, as well, with at least 33 in three of his last four outings. While the Sixers are a solid defense and have been about league-average against shooting guards this season, they have really struggled against the position over the last ten games. They have ranked 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 23.6 points, on 47.7 percent shooting, 6.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and a combined 2.2 blocks and steals over that span. Batum's floor is further boosted by Philadelphia's tendency to turn the ball over, as they are averaging a league-high 17.3 turnovers per game. While there isn't a lot to like about Batum, and the matchup, on paper, sometimes you have to ride the hot streak and tonight is one of those nights.

DK Salary: $4,900 / FD Salary: $5,500

It has been an up-and-down season for Covington, at least since he signed his extension, which has really soured the DFS industry on using him each night. He hasn't performed very well of late, outside of a few games, and that has caused his price to plummet around the industry. He has been slightly better of late, however, as he has notched at least 30 fantasy points in two of the last three games and he has reached double-digit scoring in two of those games. He has posted double-digit field goal attempts in three of the last four games, and seven of the last ten, so we know he is still getting the chance to produce, he just isn't doing a great job of connecting on those shots. Charlotte has struggled against small forwards all season long, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position, which bodes well for Covington. They have ranked 28th in defensive efficiency over the last ten games against the position, as well, allowing 20.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and .7 blocks per game during that span. Opposing shooting guards are connecting on 51.1 percent of overall field goal attempts in those ten games, and 41.5 percent of three-pointers, making this a spot where Covington's shooting woes shouldn't be a problem. They have surrendered 23.4 points per game to spot-up shooters this season, as well, and Covington is spotting up on 37.2 percent of his possessions this season. I am expecting a solid game out of Covington here, although he only needs to hit the 30-32 point mark to pay off his salary tonight.

DK Salary: $4,200 / FD Salary: $4,800

I rarely try to predict when players will get extra run due to blowouts, mostly because it almost never works out, but tonight I believe the Toronto bench is in an outstanding spot to get extra run against a terrible Atlanta team. The Raptors have played the Hawks a total of three times this season and they have posted a margin of victory of 34, 13, and 15 points in those three games. Outside of the 34 point victory, the matchups haven't been big blowouts at the end of the games, but in those two games, the Raptors have led by 19 and 20 points at the end of the third quarter. If the Raptors get out to a big lead again tonight, that could lead to Fred VanVleet getting extended run in a great matchup. VanVleet went off against the Raptors in their most recent matchup, with 47.3 fantasy points in just 18.5 minutes, and he has seen 19 or minutes in five consecutive outings. He is averaging 24.5 minutes per game and 20.5 fantasy points during that span but was able to notch 25 and 24.75 fantasy points in two of those games. Over 50 percent of his possessions come in the pick-and-roll or on spot-ups, two huge weaknesses for the Hawks defense this season, and the Hawks rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. Using a player and hoping for a blowout is generally not a great idea, that being said, VanVleet has a solid role even if this game stays close and the matchup is just outstanding tonight.