NBA GPP Green Light: 3-9-18

Happy Friday everybody, we have a big 10-game slate on our hands, which all changed drastically with the injury news that came out last night. Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, and Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier are the big names that are out tonight, which puts much more usage and fantasy production into other hands. Willie Cauley-Stein, Otto Porter, D.J. Augustin, and De'Aaron Fox are all questionable tags to keep an eye on. Once again the west coast is where we are going to want to hammer fantasy options, as games in Denver, LA, Sacramento, and Portland are all sitting with attractive totals. However, Washington-New Orleans and Houston-Toronto sit around a 220 total. With so many options opening up, I will dive into a few team situations like New Orleans, Golden State, and Orlando.

DK Salary: $8,300 / FD Salary: $9,200

Orlando is dealing with some injuries, as Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier are both ruled out for tonight's game. That is a ton of usage and minutes up for grabs. We should see Jonathon Simmons, Jonathan Issac, and Mario Hezonja pick up a bulk of the minutes. Issac is the least preferred given we have seen Simmons and Hezonja thrive in this role, but Issac wasn't healthy back then, and creates a tad more risk if Frank Vogel decides to give him more run. I would still stick with Simmons and Hezonja. Simmons has seen a 30% usage rate with Gordon, Fournier, and Payton off the floor this season. Hezonja has averaged 0.90 FPPM in that scenario. Both are cheap viable options in good spots against the Kings. The big beneficiary from all of this is Nikola Vucevic. In a small 69 minute sample size with Payton, Gordon, and Fournier off the court, he has seen a 35.7% usage rate and 1.61 FPPM. Even when Payton was on and those two were off, which is a 177 minute sample size, he averaged 1.40 FPPm with a 28.2% usage rate. Give me a 30% usage rate Vucevic tonight against a Kings defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency against opposing centers over the last ten games.

DK Salary: $9,400 / FD Salary: $9,700

Golden State ranks 21st in defensive efficiency against opposing PG over the last ten games. It is hard to overlook Damian Lillard's incredible run. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 35-3-5 with 1.3 steals per game. He is shooting 49% from the field, and 43% from three. Lillard has gone head to head with Golden State twice this season, shooting 49% over the two games, and averaging 41 real points per game. With many of us looking to get Warriors exposure, I want to correlate Lillard on the other side. Lillard has averaged 46 fantasy points per game over the last five meetings, shooting 45%. Even at higher price tags, I am looking to jam in Lillard, expecting another big outing out of him. With the amount of value opening up on the slate, and decreased price tags of the Warriors, you shouldn't have an issue locking in Lillard tonight.

DK Salary: $7,400 / FD Salary: $7,700

When we look at the Golden State injury report, it is a little lengthy. Jordan Bell and Stephen Curry are already ruled out, and then we have Andre Iguodala and David West questionable as well. Keep an eye on Klay Thompson, he is expected to play, but is dealing with hip soreness. Whenever one of the key players for Golden State is out, it heightens the ceilings of the surrounding stars. We saw that last night with Kevin Durant and Draymond Green, as both surpassed 50+ fantasy points. With Curry off the floor this season, Durant has a 35.8% usage rate, and is averaging 1.48 FPPM. Durant is $8,900 on DK and $9,800 on FD. You are going to want to build around Durant as well. However, I am looking at Green, who has been a problem for Portland. Over the last five meetings, Green has averaged 50.1 fantasy points per game. Over the last ten, it drops to just 43.7 fantasy points per game. With Curry out, Green sees a small 1.3% usage bump, and has averaged 1.11 FPPM. If the other names on the injury report are out, his FPPM jumps to 1.25. Green has not shown ill effects of back-to-backs, and Portland ranks just 17th in defensive efficiency against opposing PF over the last ten games. We are getting bargains on both Durant and Green tonight, and I am willing to overlook the ownership factor.

DK Salary: $4,400 / FD Salary: $4,700

Anthony Davis is doubtful, which will set back this team a bit. We are likely going to see Nikola Mirotic and Jrue Holiday lead the show, but E'twaun Moore is a nice value option in this spot. With David and Cousins off the court this season, these are the three starters that see the biggest bump, which is as expected. Mirotic has seen a 28.5% usage rate in 118 minutes, averaging 1.32 FPPM. Holiday has seen a whopping 35.4% usage rate, averaging 1.45 FPPM. Getting to Moore, he has seen a 25% usage rate with those two off the floor, averaging 1.05 FPPM. Moore takes a dip with Mirotic on, but Moore is still viable at his prices. Moore might see some ownership, but with Simmons and Hezonja right there, maybe not as much as you think. Washington ranks 25th in defensive efficiency against opposing SF over the last ten games, and are allowing them to shoot .425% from three in that span. Moore has had some hot shooting games when the bigs have been injured, and we are hoping for more of that tonight.

DK Salary: $5,500 / FD Salary: $5,800

This is where I am looking to make a small ownership move. There are some cheaper point guard options available, and nobody will be looking at Tomas Satoransky. This is a tremendous matchup, despite New Orleans ranking 9th in defensive efficiency against PG over the last ten games. They allow plenty of peripheral stats, allowing the most rebounds per game to opposing PG, and the seventh most assists per game. Overall they allow the second most fantasy points per game on the season, and the 9th most over the last ten games. We can count on the big minutes for Satoranksy, and while he has been a bit more volatile of late, the upside is still there as we saw against Miami last game. He is a sneaky option, and you have the 35+ fantasy point upside that some of the other cheaper point guards lack. You also have the option of using him at SG on DK.