NBA Winners From Downtown: 1-27-16

Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.

Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.

Vegas Notes

- Warriors-Mavs have the highest total on the slate, and Golden State is favored by 17 points. I am not intrigued with this game in cash due to the Warriors' high price tags, and the likelihood of them blowing Dallas out at home.

- Celtics-Nuggets is your next highest total, and is a great place to find value tonight.

- The only unappealing game on the slate is Charlotte-Utah, sitting at a 191 total. Every other game is sitting above 200.

Top Picks

Salary: FD: $10,100 DK: $9,700

On FanDuel, CP3 is pretty close to Westbrook, so I don't mind swerving on that site. On DraftKings, CP3 is about $1,000 less than Curry and Westbrook tonight. I will take the slight discount and use elsewhere. Paul has been phenomenal of late, averaging 23-9-5, with 2.3 steals per game in the last six. He is shooting 50% from the field, and 52% from three in that span. Paul is going to have to continue to carry this team for the next few weeks, given Blake Griffin's underground fight club has landed up off the court for another 4-6 weeks. The Hawks have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. CP3 is a lock for another 40+ fantasy game tonight.

Salary: FD: $5,800 DK: $5,700

Shooting guard is ugly tonight, especially given James Harden is taken off the map playing the number one defense in the league. He has been held to an average of 31 fantasy points the two games he has played the Spurs this season. I will pass at his price. Instead I am paying down a bit for KCP, who continues to be a great cash game option, logging 25+ fantasy points in eight of the last ten games. KCP logs big minutes as always, and has a nice matchup with Philly tonight. Detroit has a monster 107 team total, and Philly has allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game in the last ten games. KCP is averaging 17-1-4, with 1.5 steals per game in the last six. This is about where he will land tonight.

Salary: FD: $10,200 DK: $9,800

Kevin Durant continues to be extremely efficient, as well as consistent. He is coming off of an overtime game, but has averaged 27-4-6 on the second nights of back-to-backs this season. I am not overly concerned. He is averaging 30-5-9 in the last six games, shooting 45% from the field. OKC have one of the higher totals as always on the slate, and you can always count for him and his partner in crime to lead the way. Minnesota is allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game in the last ten games, and have allowed the 6th highest FG% to opposing SF. Durant is still my top SF tonight.

Salary: FD: $6,400 DK: $6,400

With Jahlil Okafor already ruled out tonight, Nerlens Noel gets a big bump, especially at his price. In five games without Okafor this season, Noel is averaging 13 and 7, with 4.4 blocks+steals per game. His usage rate takes a small bump, but nothing significant. Noel has been great this month, averaging 10-1-9, with 4.2 blocks+steals per game. His defensive stats help his floor, as we have seen much of this season. I expect Philly to start Noel at the five again, which the Pistons have allowed the third most fantasy points to in the last ten games. They have also allowed the 4th most blocks, and rank in the bottom half for steals allowed. I am on Noel at these prices.

Salary: FD: $7,800 DK: $7,100

On FanDuel, I don't mind bumping up $400 to pay for Andre Drummond, but DeAndre Jordan is at a pretty good discount on DraftKings. Atlanta has been horrendous against centers this season, allowing the third most fantasy points per game, and rank dead last in rebound differential. Jordan is averaging 14 and 14 in the last five games, shooting an extremely efficient 70% from the field. Jordan has double-doubled in eight of the last ten games, and the two games he did not, he missed by two points and a board. Drummond is a solid option on FD, but Jordan is my guy on DK tonight.

Value Plays

Archie Goodwin (PG/SG - PHX) FD: $4,100 DK: $4,800

We expect the Suns to be big time underdogs against Cleveland tonight, but regardless the backcourt will see big minutes with the injuries. I like Goodwin on DK where he is shooting guard eligible, due to the weak position tonight. Cleveland has allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards in the last ten games, which bodes well for Goodwin. Averaging 16-2-2 in the last five games, and scoring 20+ real points in the last three, he is still a safe option.

Marcus Smart (PG - BOS) FD: $5,500 DK: $5,100

I love Marcus Smart tonight, who is a nice value play to get exposure to one of the higher totals on the night. He is averaging 12-3-5 in the last six games, shooting 46% from the field. This is a healthy upgrade from his season 35% field goal percentage. He is also averaging nearly two steals a game in the last six. Denver has allowed the third most fantasy points per game this season to opposing guards. With a 110 team total for Boston, I am all over it.

Shabazz Muhammed (SF - MIN) FD: $4,200 DK: $4,700

Shabazz continues to see increased minutes, averaging 29 in the last five games. He is averaging 23 fantasy points per game in that span, and has averaged 23 in the two games against OKC this season. He still sits at a cheap price tag, and has more value on FD where you have to roster two.