NBA Winners From Downtown: 12-11-15

Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.

Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.

Vegas Notes

- Celtics-Warriors have the highest total tonight at 216, with a six point spread. Pelicans-Wizards come second, with a 213 total, and a 2.5 point spread.

- Nuggets-Wolves, Jazz-Thunder, and Suns-Blazers are all games with over a 200 game total. Attack these five games, and you can do no wrong.

- Spurs are favored by 15 points tonight against the Lakers, and this is likely to be a blowout.

- Lakers, Bucks, and 76ers have the lowest projected team totals.

Top Picks

John Wall (PG), Wizards
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Pelicans	37	1.17	28.8	28.1	55.4	105	43.2

Salary: FD: $9,500 DK: $9,100

Point guard is incredibly deep tonight, from top to bottom, but John Wall stands out as my favorite. play. He can give you 60 fantasy point upside, and a stable 40 point floor like the rest of them. He comes in a shade cheaper than Westbrook and Curry, which is why I like him. He is in a great spot, with New Orleans allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Wall is averaging 27-9-5 in the last six games, shooting 54%. He also has 21 steals in that span. The Pelicans are allowing the highest FG% to opposing point guards this season, and Wall's impressive run should continue tonight.

O.J Mayo (SG), Bucks
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Raptors	34	0.71	16.5	17.8	37.3	93	24.1

Salary: FD: $4,800 DK: $5,400

If you want to go up and get a safe floor player at this position like Eric Bledsoe, go for it. You will need value, and SG is the best spot for it. O.J. Mayo has been fairly consistent since coming back, and Milwaukee is very thin in the back court. Mayo has played 34+ minutes in the last four games, hitting 25 fantasy points in each. He will see some time at the one and the two tonight, against Toronto who has been average defenders against guards in the last ten games. Overall on the season, Toronto has been a solid defensive unit, but minutes, and price considered, make Mayo a safe play.

Paul George (SF), Pacers
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Heat	38	1.35	20.2	31.9	37.8	101	51.3

Salary: FD: $10,400 DK: $10,200

I tend to stay away from targeting the Heat, but how can I with how Paul George has been playing? He is averaging 30 and 8 in the last four games, shooting 42% from three. He is also averaging 2.3 steals per game in that span. Miami has been missing Luol Deng, which might be why they have given up the most fantasy points per game to small forwards in the last five, but George torched them earlier this season, going 36 and 12. Outside of his dud against Portland, George has hit 60 DK points or more in three of the last four games. With Kevin Durant in a a matchup against Utah, and also having Russell Westbrook on his side, I prefer George. Lebron is also playing tonight, but is not on the same level as George right now.

Draymond Green (PF), Warriors
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Celtics	33	1.10	24.0	18.3	44.6	111	36.3

Salary: FD: $8,100 DK: $8,200

Could the streak end tonight? As a Celtics fan I like our odds, but realistically the Warriors should prevail. No shocker here, as Golden State has a 111 team total tonight. Boston should keep this game close, and Vegas believes so as well, with a six point spread. Boston has allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing PF, and a trending downwards in rebound differential, despite the efforts of Jared Sullinger. Green is averaging 14-7-10 in the last five games, and is a triple-double threat on any given night. Boston is allowing a 51 FG% to opposing PF, which Green could use a bump in that department, shooting 40% in the last five games. He has a very safe floor, but also can deliver high upside.

Marcin Gortat (C), Wizards
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
@Pelicans	33	1.02	30.7	19.4	53	105	33.6

Salary: FD: $6,300 DK: $6,000

Marcin Gortat is one of my favorite plays tonight, and his price tag is one of the main reasons. He missed some time with personal reasons, but came back and picked up where he left off. He is averaging 17 and 11 in the last three games, with two blocks per game. He is shooting 65% in that span, and it is about time his minutes have come up. It was a struggle for him to see over 28 minutes for most of the season, but now is playing into the mid-30's. New Orleans ranks 25h in rebound differential, and is allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing centers. Washington has a juicy 106 total tonight, and Gortat, Beal, and Wall will be a big part of it.

Value Plays

Jrue Holiday (PG - NOP) FD: $5,100 DK: $4,500

Jrue Holiday is now priced like a guy who sees around 25 minutes per game, making him a sneaky value play tonight. He has a 26.8% usage rate this season, and is now coming off the bench of late. He is averaging 13-5-3, in 25 minutes per game, in the last three. He is shooting 50% from the field, also averaging 1.3 steals per game in that span. With no tremendous value PG's tonight, Holiday stands out as one of top value plays.

Manu Ginobli (SG - SAS) FD: $4,800 DK: $4,500

This game could get ugly, which is why I am avoiding for the most part. Manu Ginobli is just a value guy who will come off the bench and notch 25 fantasy points, and has 30 fantasy point upside. He is averaging 11-3-3 in the last five games, and has a 25.7% usage rate off the bench. Great matchup against one of the worst defenses in the league.

Jon Leuer (PF - PHX) FD: $4,500 DK: $5,200

The Markieff Morris time is ending in Phoenix, and I guess you could say the Jon Leuer era has begun. He is averaging 28 minutes in the last six games, shooting 50%, averaging 12 and 6. He has double-digit shot attempts in four of the last five games, showing he is a part of the Phoenix offense. Portland-Phoenix has a 210 total tonight, and tons of value plays up front.

This is more of a play on DK, with him being PF eligible only on FD, which is unfortunate. Mirza Teletovic is another guy who has seen a bump in minutes, and is starting to solidify himself over guys like P.J. Tucker, and T.J. Warren. He is shooting 48% from three in the last six games, averaging 13 and 4. At a SF position where there is not much in between the top options, and value, Teletovic stands out as the best "cheap" SF.

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