NBA Winners from Downtown 12-3-15

By: Justin Elick, Updated December 03, 2015

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Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.

Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.

Vegas Notes

- Tonight is a rare occasion where we get 6 games on a Thursday night! Celtics-Kings leads the way with a 215-point total and the Celtics favored by 2 points on the road.

- Spurs-Grizzlies may be one of the least appealing games we'll see all week, with the Spurs favored by 3.5 points in a game with just a 184 point total.

- Thunder-Heat (200.5, +2), and Pacers-Blazers (201, +2.5) are the only other games with totals of 200 or more.

- Nuggets-Raptors (193.5, -10), and Magic-Jazz (190, -3.5) are home to a few small totals as well.

- We have a lot of teams on a back-to-back tonight, including the Spurs, Pacers, Nuggets, and Raptors.

Top Picks

DeMarcus Cousins (PF/C), Kings
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
vs BOS	36	1.47	93.4	35.5	51.9	101.5	48.60

Salary: FD: $10,600 DK: $10,600

The only issue with DMC this season has been his health. When he has been on the court, he has been a usage MONSTER, trailing only Russell Westbrook for the top spot the NBA with a 35.5% usage rate in 2015-16. He is averaging just under 51 DK points per game, and even better, he is listed as a PF on DK. He has at least 44 FP in each of his last 10 games that he has finished (he had 26.75 in 15 minutes against LAC before leaving with an injury). Boston is a fine team defense, but they don't have the individual talent to match up with Cousins down low. Expect him to dominate once again.

Kevin Durant (SF), Thunder
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
at MIA	36	1.43	100.6	29	37.8	101.25	51.48

Salary: FD: $10,500 DK: $10,100

While I wouldn't fault you for rostering teammate Russell Westbrook instead, there are plenty of cheaper options at the PG position tonight. Durant stands with Paul George among the SF rankings for me tonight, but with a slightly better matchup. Durant has been tremendous since his return from injury, posting 45.5, 52, 65.75, and 51.5 FP in 4 contests. Luol Deng is officially questionable for tonight's game, but RotoWorld reported that Deng believes it is "unlikely" that he plays. That means Durant will see Gerald Green and Justice Winslow on defense tonight, and either one is a mismatch in favor of Mr. Durant.

Isaiah Thomas (PG), Celtics
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
at SAC	32	1.10	103.1	30	50	108.5	37.40

Salary: FD: $7,300 DK: $7,500

The Kings/Celtics tilt has the highest total on the board by a wide margin tonight, and I want as many pieces as possible. Despite some poor shooting (2/11 from 3, 12/35 overall) over his last 2 games, IT2 has still managed 34.75 and 33.25 FP. Rajon Rondo has allowed some monster games due to his lack of (desire to play) defense. Thomas has a fine floor tonight, and a big ceiling if his shot is falling. He also comes at a discount of between 3-4 K from Westbrook, depending on the site.

Derrick Favors (PF), Jazz
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
vs ORL	35	1.13	99.8	23.1	48.2	97	39.55

Salary: FD: $8,000 DK: $7,200

With Rody Gobert out, Favors takes on a much bigger role in the offense, and is averaging 43.1 DK points per contest when Gobert sits, compared to 34.5 DK PPG when Gobert plays, per StatMuse. The Magic have struggled against both PF and C, and it is possible we see Favors draw the start at the 5, which would match Favors up with defensively-inept Nikola Vucevic. His price is simply too low on DK, and he'll be one of the first players into my cash game lineup there tonight.

Jared Sullinger (PF), Celtics
Opponent	Minutes	Fantasy Points Per Minute	Defensive Efficiency Rating	Usage Rate	Opposing Fantasy Points Allowed	Vegas Team Total	Projection
at SAC	32	1.18	103.1	19.8	37.3	97.5	32.9

Salary: FD: $6,100 DK: $6,400

Sully has been one of the many benefactors of Marcus Smart's absence, as he is averaging 32.2 DK FPPG without him, while posting just 27.4 with him on the court, per StatMuse. He will have a less than ideal matchup down low against the Kings bigs, but he has been a consistent contributor down low for the Celtics, with at least 30 FP in 4 straight contests. If Sully sees minutes in the 30s tonight, he could be one of the better values on the board in the game with tonight's highest total and closest spread.

Value Plays

Trevor Booker (PF- UTA) FD: $4,000 DK: $4,000

Booker is one of those players I hate to roster, but tonight's situation and matchup dictate that he will be a solid value play. With Rudy Gobert out, Favors will likely draw the start at the 5, with Booker sliding into the open 4 spot. It's possible that Trey Lyles draws a start at the 5, sending Favors back to the 4 and Booker to the bench, but either way Booker should see mid 20s in minutes tonight against a soft Orlando frontcourt. If you need a cheap PF, he's your guy, even if he comes off the bench.

Andre Nicholson (PF - ORL) FD: $4,000 DK: $3,700

Nicholson stands out as a viable alternative to, or ideal pairing with Booker tonight. He is drawing a solid amount of minutes (24, 25, 25, 23, 31) in his last 5 games, and has 22+ FP in 3 of 5. Utah is a great defensive team, so his upside is certainly capped, but if he sees 25ish minutes tonight, he could easily post the 18-22 FP you're looking for in a near-minimum PF.

Omri Casspi (SF - SAC) FD: $4,200 DK: $4,700

Boston has been among the worst in the NBA at defending the SF position this season, and Casspi has been quietly consistent. Like I mentioned above, this game has the highest total by far, and Casspi has seen 27+ minutes in 7 straight games, eclipsing 22 DK points in all but one. He's a nice way to get a cheap piece of BOS-SAC.

Cory Joseph (PG - TOR) FD: $4,400 DK: $3,900

While he isn't a premier FPPM performer, Joseph has seen huge minutes over his last 3 games (34, 33, 34), and now draws a Nuggets team that is allowing the 5th-most DK points to opposing PG this season. He doesn't have huge upside, but brings a floor around 20 FP at a low cost on a night with a lot of studs you want to pay up for in all formats.

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