NBA Winners From Downtown: 12-5-15

Winners From Downtown is bringing the top daily picks for your cash games, alongside some value plays, and Vegas notes. Be sure to check out our minutes tool, and Colossus lineup optimizer.

Projections show DraftKings prices and fantasy points.

Vegas Notes

- Kings-Rockets are the two highest projected scoring teams, the Celtics, Bucks, and Cavs are the lowest.

- Knicks-Bucks, and Cavs-Heat are easy games to avoid in cash games, but feel free to take a shot or two in tournaments.

- Spurs have the biggest spread, being favored by nine points, but should stay close for starters to get their usual minutes.

Top Picks

Salary: FD: $9,500 DK: $8,900

A lot of high upside point guards on today's slate, but Damian Lillard is by far the safest option. Even against a tough Pacers' defense, Lillard dropped a 26-9-3 line. He has scored 25+ real points in three of the last four games, with the one game being where left injured. Lillard is averaging 24-7-5 this season, and his usage rate is among the tops in the league. Minnesota is allowing the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Lillard dropped 54 fantasy points on Minnesota in an earlier matchup. Minutes, usage rate, and matchup has everything lined up for another big Lillard game.

Salary: FD: $10,800 DK: $10,500

Sacramento has been consistently bad against shooting guards for a few years, and now they face the best shooting guard in the league. Harden torched the Kings with 43 real points earlier this season, tacking on 13 assists, and six rebounds. Opposing shooting guards have the third highest FG% against the Kings this season. Harden is averaging nearly 30-7-7 per game this season, and has scored below 20 points just once in the last ten games. At the weakest position on the slate, Harden is the easy plug and play, especially in this matchup.

Salary: FD: $8,900 DK: $8,700

Kawhi Leonard leads the league in three point shooting percentage (59%), and hitting seven of nine in the last game. Leonard is just as consistent as it gets, averaging 22-7-3 this season. He is shooting over 50% from the field, averaging three steals+blocks per game. Boston has allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards, and allow the third most steals to SF as well. With Paul George and Lebron James in slower paced games, I rather save a $1,000 with Leonard, and get a similar floor.

Salary: FD: $7,900 DK: $7,500

Blake Griffin is your top PF play on FD, while DeMarcus Cousins is on DK. Going a bit cheaper here, Derrick Favors delivers a steady floor, averaging 16 and 9 this season. Favors has moved to the five, with Rudy Gobert on the shelf, and Indy has struggled against big men this season. Indy has allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers, and rank 17th in rebound differential. Favors is shooting 62% in the last three games, and 54% on the season. Favors usage rate dropped last game due to Utah chasing the game with outside shooting, but his usage rate should tick upwards a bit as the threat down low.

Salary: FD: $7,300 DK: $6,800

I love Nikola Vucevic's price tonight, and the matchup is one I want in cash games. The Clippers have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers, and rank 28th in rebound differential. Vuc is averaging 16 and 10 in the last five games, and is starting to look like the center we rostered numerous times last year. Clippers are allowing the third most rebounds to opposing centers, and the 5th highest FG%. While Cousins trumps all, and is a cash game play, I can't get away from his price.

Value Plays

Omri Casspi missed the last game due to sickness, but George Karl has named him as the likely starter tonight against Houston, suggesting he is good to go. It looks like they are shifting Boogie to center, Gay to the 4, and Casspi at the 3. Casspi has been very efficient this season, and has seen a healthy 29 minutes in the last four games. He is shooting 50% on the season, averaging 14 and 6 in the last four games.