NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Patrick Mahomes - $8,000 - GPP Projection: 31.1
There is a good chance Patrick Mahomes is far and above the best quarterback this weekend when it comes to scoring. What if the Chiefs faders are just absolutely out of it because the ceilings hit for the key guys. This is a great matchup and the projections are bonkers for the Chiefs options this week. Over the last seven games, Mahomes has averaged 26.9 points per game and has a ceiling of 33.9. The only ceiling higher on the slate is Josh Allen at 37 but faces a tougher Baltimore defense. Cleveland has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and has a struggling secondary.
Tom Brady - $6,300 - GPP Projection: 22.1
Tom Brady is the 5th most expensive quarterback on the slate. Recency bias might keep his ownership down, especially with Jackson/Mahomes/Allen on the slate as well. He offers a discount and has some solid stacking partners as well. He had a 22.4 DK point game in the Bucs opener against the Saints, which the rushing touchdown helped mask a pretty dreadful display and then he put up the 5.3 DK point game. The range of outcomes are very wide but on a small four game slate, Brady has 20+ DK point potential at what should be lower ownership.
Cam Akers - $5,700 - GPP Projection: 16.2
I was stuck between JK Dobbins and Cam Akers in this range but both are fantastic options this week. The positive for Akers is that he doesn't have to compete with a rushing quarterback in the red zone and also Gus Edwards. In terms of upside, Akers has the better path and also an equally good matchup against the Packers run defense that hasn't improved much since last season. Green Bay gave up the 5th most fantasy points per game to running backs this season and Akers is a full-time workhorse now.
Kareem Hunt - $4,800 - GPP Projection: 13.6
Kareem Hunt is surprisingly cheap in a game where he is going to need to have some receiving production if the Browns have a chance. You can miss me with all that revenge jazz as anyone will be motivated in a playoff game. The Chiefs allowed 25.7 PPR points per game to running backs and a 93-846-5 line to backs in the passing game. That is the 4th most receptions and most receiving yards.
Tyreek Hill - $8,000 - GPP Projection: 22.3
In the same theory as Mahomes, Hill's ceiling is absurd this week and the only one who can keep is Davante Adams, but he has to deal with Jalen Ramsey this week. Hill will face a Browns secondary that allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and 20 touchdowns. Hill is coming off an 87-1276-15 line and he scorched bottom-12 secondaries as expected this season. $8,000 actually isn't bad, given he was $9,000 in week 16 when he last played, and the week he was below $8,000, he went for 60.9 DK points.
Chris Godwin - $6,100 - GPP Projection: 16.7
Chris Godwin has scored in four straight games and has five in his last four games. He has 12, 7, and 9 targets in the last three games. His prior two games against the Saints were very meh but the offense was in general. With Lattimore giving Evans a tough time, Godwin and Brown are the interesting names in this Bucs receiving core. This is still a Saints secondary that allowed some massive games to receivers in fantasy this year. The $6,100 price tag is really reasonable as well.
Gabriel Davis - $4,000 - GPP Projection: 10.2
It was Gabriel Davis who had the better day compared to John Brown who sunk a ton of lineups, including my own. Buffalo is going to roll out heavy wide receiver sets this week and Humphrey and Peters should be focusing on Diggs and Brown. This is still a really good secondary outside of those two, but Davis is a field-stretcher, averaging 17.5 yards per reception this season. He produced 12.5 DK points in Week 18 and 21.7 in Week 17 on just a combined nine targets.
Mark Andrews - $5,000 - GPP Projection: 12.9
Mark Andrews is second to Travis Kelce in fantasy points this season, for tight ends on this slate. Andrews has had some single-digit performances this week but most of the position has been like that. Buffalo has not been good against tight ends and we saw it last week against the Colts but this season they have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends and have not really faced a good tight end schedule.
Robert Tonyan - $4,200 - GPP Projection: 11.6
The Packers are going to need some secondary options to step up this week and Robert Tonyan is one I am expecting him to. He isn't a huge yardage guy but I like the touchdown upside he brings given he was tied with Kelce for the most at the position (11). Adams is going to have Ramsey on him and be a primary focus for the Rams defense, who is first in red zone targets by a wide margin, but Tonyan is second.