NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Week 7 is already off to a crazy start between the injury report and now the movement of a few games. Seattle-Arizona was moved to the Sunday night game and the Las Vegas-Tampa game is moved to the afternoon slate. Both games are not added to the DraftKings main slate, although Tampa-Vegas still needs to be watched because the Covid cases. Emmanuel Sanders was added to the Covid list and will be out this week. Aaron Jones popped up on the injury report as well. It is going to be a hectic but high scoring week as several games have over a 50 over/under set.
Justin Herbert - $6,400 - GPP Projection: 19.6
The Jaguars have allowed 20+ performances to quarterbacks three times this season. Over the last five weeks Justin Herbert is averaging the 9th most fantasy points per game (21.8). That is more than Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Matthew Stafford. He has a trio of weapons I like a lot this week with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry. The Jaguars rank dead last in DVOA against the pass.
Joe Burrow - $5,500 - GPP Projection: 19.3
Joe Burrow has four 300+ yard games this season but three games where he has zero passing touchdowns and one game where he just had one. These are disappointing numbers but numbers where you expect some positive regression in. His best game came against the Browns, which isn't a surprise. They are a bottom-third pass defense, which and have allowed 20+ performances to three quarterbacks. The ones they didn't were Dwayne Haskins, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. Where the Steelers just scored on the ground.
Chris Carson - $6,400 - GPP Projection: 17.3
There are a handful of running backs in good spots and a lot of value opening up and Chris Carson will fly under the radar. Arizona has allowed 19.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. Carson ranks 7th in scoring among backs this season and is 6th in points per game. This can be a favorable game script if Seattle can jump out to a lead. We have also seen Carson used in the passing game as well.
Alvin Kamara - $7,900 - GPP Projection: 24.9
It should be the Alvin Kamara show this week with Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Thomas out. The targets will be there and add in the fact he faces a bottom five run defense. They rank 28th in DVOA against the run this season and are allowing the 6th most fantasy points per game to running backs. Kamara is someone I am forcing into lineups this week both in cash and tournaments.
Mike Williams - $4,700 - GPP Projection: 12.4
The Jaguars have allowed back to back 100+ yard games this season and rank dead last against the pass. Mike Williams is a cheap dart throw option to use this week and possibly pair with Justin Herbert. If Keenan Allen is limited, Williams will take on a bigger role in the offense but either way I expect him to get 5+ targets and his deep threat ability is always potential for a monster game on just a few touches.
Tyler Boyd - $5,400 - GPP Projection: 14.8
You can list any of the Bengals wide receivers here. I like all three and will be getting exposure. Tyler Boyd remains the most solid option leading the Bengals in targets this season. He is a top 25 wideout on the year and is never priced like one. He also gets a fantastic matchup against the Browns, who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson - $4,200 - GPP Projection: 12.4
Diontae Johnson is practicing in full this week and due back. His price has dropped tremendously and while the Steelers roulette wheel of wide receivers is going to be frustrating each week, Johnson is at least at a price to take a shot on where he can pay off the price tag. This was a guy who had 23 targets in his first two games of the season.
Hunter Henry - $4,500 - GPP Projection: 11.7
The Jaguars have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game and this goes hand-in-hand with the rest of the Chargers picks. The Chargers have a four touchdown implied total this week. Henry has been a bit quiet this season, but has 18 targets over the last three weeks and four out of the five games he has 7+ targets.
Jared Cook - $4,300 - GPP Projection: 9.4
With a lack of options in the receiving game, I expect Jared Cook to get a few more chances this week. This bodes well for his upside but he already has that given he is a big chunk play type of receiver and can also move after the catch. At $4,300 this is far too cheap for him and in what still should be a high scoring game.
Chiefs - $4,300 - GPP Projection: 9.1
We could get some lackluster weather conditions in this one and while I generally like to pay down at defense on DraftKings, the Broncos are allowing the most points per game to opposing defenses this season. The offensive line has struggled and they have turned the ball over ten times in five games. The Chiefs defense has played well of late.