Quarterback Analysis: NFL Week 17

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This is the first time in a long time that I have wrote about Mr. Brady, but he deserved to be written about more this season. He has been fantastic all year with 4,636 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns. He is averaging 23.1 fantasy points a game and has only one week below 18 fantasy points in the past five weeks. The Patriots still need to win this week to lock up home field advantage in the playoffs, and Brady will be motivated to get that done. He faces a Dolphins team that is not a very good defense. They allow 18.84 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks which is in the bottom third of the league. They also are allowing 258 passing yards a game which ranks them 24^th in the NFL and have allowed 31 passing scores this season which is the fourth most. Brady ate them alive earlier in the season throwing for over 350 yards and four scores on his way to 30 fantasy points, and I would not be shocked to see similar numbers once again this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 10-15%

GPP: 10-15%

DraftKings

Cash: 10-15%

GPP: 10-15%

Big Ben let a lot of people down last week, but that does not mean you shouldn't target him this week. You will see a common theme this week of choosing quarterbacks that have something to play for, and Ben is such a player. The Steelers need to win and get some help to reach the playoffs, and Ben should come out firing. The Browns are an awful defense anyway you look at it. They have allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns this season with 31 and have allowed the sixth most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks with 20. They also are the only AFC North team that Ben has not had trouble with this season, as he threw for 379 yards and three scores against them earlier in the season. I am fully expecting another huge game from Roethlisberger this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

Value Cash Game Play

I love me some Fitzmagic this week. The Jets trade for him was probably the best off-season move, well besides them inviting the player who broke Geno Smith's jaw to training camp. Fitz has been great all season but has really turned it up during the Jets playoff hunt. He has at least 16 fantasy points in eight straight games and has gone for over 23 fantasy points in four of his past five games. In those five games, Fitzpatrick is averaging 305 yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns. He should have no trouble continuing his streak of 16 fantasy points to nine games against the Bills. The Bills have really taken a step back recently and are allowing 18.46 fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past three weeks and for the season. They are allowing 253 passing yards a game and have allowed 28 passing touchdowns this season. They will be motivated to play spoiler and knock their coach's old team out of the playoffs, but I don't think they can or will. If you're spending down at quarterback, Fitzpatrick is a good place to look.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

I am going to run out Alex Smith in cash games once again this week. He lacks upside, but he is very consistent for his price tag. He has now thrown a touchdown pass in five straight weeks and has scored at least 17 fantasy points in three of his past five games. He is averaging 17.1 fantasy points on the season and faces off against a Raiders defense that has trouble stopping the pass. The Raiders allow 266 passing yards a game which ranks 27^th in the NFL. They also are allowing 17.53 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks which is right in the middle of the pack. Smith scored 24 fantasy points on them in their earlier meeting this season, and while I don't expect that this week, I do expect him to score in the 15 to 17 fantasy point range. There is nothing sexy about Smith, but for his price tag he gives you exactly what you need in cash games.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

Elite GPP Plays

Hard not to like Matt Ryan in this spot against the worst secondary in league history of the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have allowed a NFL record 43 passing touchdowns this season. They also have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks with 24.82 and the second most passing yards per game with 281. Ryan has been pretty bad this season but is coming off his first 300 yards game in six games. The Falcons are only playing for pride and a winning record, but at home they should play their starters start to finish. I cannot trust Ryan in cash with the way he has played all season at his price tag, but I will be having my fair share of him in GPPs this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 5-10%

The Panthers loss last week was a gift for fantasy players as we get another week of CAMVP. The Panthers must win this game to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs which is something they are going to need if they want to beat the best team in football, the Arizona Cardinals. We all know what Cam has done this season with his 3,500 passing yards, 33 passing scores and his elite 626 rushing yards and eight scores. Those second numbers are what really set Newton apart, as you are getting the fantasy points of a second-tier running back out of your quarterback. Newton had his worst game of the season against the Falcons last week, but he should easily bounce back against the Bucs. The Bucs are the definition of a middle of the road defense. They rank 17^th in passing yards allowed per game with 239, 25^th in passing touchdowns allowed this season with 29 and 15^th in fantasy points allowed per game with 17.89. Those numbers don't scare me off Newton at all, but what does scare me and why I only have Newton as a GPP play this week is the blowout factor. Vegas has the Panthers as the largest favorites on the board at 10.5 home favorites, and if things get out of hand it is possible you see a quick hook for Newton.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

Value GPP Plays

I love Eli Manning in GPPs this week but wanted to instead talk about the quarterback he is facing in Sam Bradford. Bradford has been on fire over the past two weeks with 741 passing yards and three scores. He has at least 17 fantasy points in each game and will be motivated to show what he can do in his final audition this season. Bradford is playing for a new contract after turning down an extension this summer and gambling on himself. That has not worked out too well so far, but as he has shown the past two weeks, he has the talent. The matchup against the Giants also lends itself well for Bradford's showcase game. They have allowed the most passing yards per game with 298, third most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks with 21.36 and sixth most passing touchdowns with 29. While everything on paper looks good for Bradford there are some question marks with what the Eagles offense will look like after they fired Chip Kelly last night. At his price, I am more than willing to take the gamble that Bradford continues his hot play despite the question marks.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

Call me crazy, but I cannot get enough of Brock Osweiler. His play has put Peyton Manning into early retirement as it does not look like he will get his job back when he is healthy. Over the past three weeks, Brock has looked especially good and has 903 passing yards and four scores in that time frame. He has also run for a score in that stretch and has scored at least 16 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks. The Chargers have nothing to play for and are just trying to get out of the season alive after suffering injury after injury this season. They are a decent defense only allowing 233 passing yards a game and 21 touchdowns, but I am still willing to take a chance that Brock continues his stellar play.

Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%