NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of matchup, price, Vegas and points-per-dollar value. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the top three cafe value picks at each position on FanDuel be aware I could be ruling against these picks too.
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer had some glory days for us in the DFS world last year, but this isn't a week I am going to stroll down memory lane. He is $6,000, and we have already done a cheap quarterback once already this season. Dallas is an average pass defense, but the combination of Chicago weapons and offensive line, I believe the Vegas total holds true. There is also a possibility that Alshon Jeffery doesn't play. There is a lot of value in Week 3 to not go near bare-minimum at quarterback.
Cleveland's defense puts Miami in a good spot, and they sit with a friendly team total. Ryan Tannehill is at a great price, and I am only going to be reserving him for GPP's. Outside of Joe Haden, the other corners in this Cleveland defense don't present much of a problem. I really like Tannehill as a swerve off of the top options, and Philip Rivers, who will be a popular play. If I am spending up at quarterback, Andrew Luck has eye. This game is expected to be back and forth, and with a lack of a run game, Luck will be throwing 35+ times. San Diego has allowed the second most fantasy points per game this season.
Running Back
I have been writing about DeAngelo Williams all week, and this will be the last time at least for now. He has over 60 touches so far this season, and you have to expect the same type of volume here before Le'Veon Bell comes back. Game flow sets up Williams pertty well as favorites, with over a three touchdown total. FanDuel priced him up, but Cafe Value is still in his favor of him paying that off. Frank Gore popped up in the optimal lineup a few time, and his main purpose is really opening the door to pay up at other positions. He also helps balance out your running back position if you do decide to pay up for Williams. I like targeting the Colts this week, and especially guys who are going to be relied upon in the red zone. Gore also has seven catches in two games. Melvin Gordon in that same game is going to be a very chalky target. Indy has allowed 4.5 YPC this season, and are one of the worst defenses in the league at this point. Fire away, as Gordon is going to have a decent workload.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown is taking on a matchup with the Eagles, who certainly have some defensive numbers going their way in the early part of 2016. This wasn't a good defense last year, and I do believe they will trend upwards. However, playing the Bears and Browns will help your case. Brown is the best wide receiver in the game, and is the easy pay up option over a guy like Odell Beckham Jr. With plenty of value at the running back and wide receiver spot, he can fit right in. Stefon Diggs is going to be a chalky wideout play, and a tough one to fade. Minnesota has a very low total, and this isn't an ideal matchup. Carolina's secondary is still coping with the loss of Josh Norman, and Diggs can take avantage of a bulk of targets. I am worried about this offense, but Diggs should be fine.
The first easy matchup of the year will happen in Week 3 for Allen Robinson, and I am going to jump all over it. Baltimore ranks 28th against opposing WR1's this season, and Robinson is certainly one of the better ones in the game, despite his first two games. A-Rob had 15 targets in this first game, and just five in the second. We can expect somewhere in between for Week 3.
Tight End
Travis Kelce was not a name I was expecting to pop up here, but has had seven targets in his first two games. He had a decent game against San Diego, going for 74 yards. Houston was a tougher matchup. The Jets rank 9th against tight ends, and I am really overlooking this game when it comes to the Chiefs side of the ball. At $6,000 I rather go with some other options like Dwayne Allen, or go up to a Delanie Walker.
Dennis Pitta sorta puts Jesse James out of play. For just $500 more, I am getting a player who is more involved in the passing game. That is Pitta. He had 12 targets in Week 2, and will draw another friendly matchup against Jacksonville. They rank 19th against tight ends, per Football Outsiders.
Defense
Cincinnati's defense ranks rather high for Week 3, which I am a little hesitant on. I know the Broncos have an inexperienced quarterback going, but the way their offense plays limits upside to opposing defenses. For $100 more, I rather just go right up to the Dolphins. Cleveland has allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. They are also sitting on their third string quarterback already, and Corey Coleman is out with a broken hand. The Dolphins have crept into value cash game territory. The Broncos are also fairly cheap, and this is odd seeing them under $5,000. The Bengals have A.J. Green, but with their secondary, I expect him to be locked up. Denver has eight sacks and three turnovers already on this young season, two of those resulted in touchdowns.
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