NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
The optimal lineups were on the right guys last week, locking in Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, Doug Baldwin, Lamar Miller, Will Tye, and the Houston defense. The Seattle stack is back again this week, but switching off to what seems to be the more popular wideout now, Paul Richardson. This four game slate brings in some tougher defenses, and some teams heading out on the road after being home the week before.
Cash & GPP Optimal Lineups
We will work from the bottom up here, as both lineups are rolling out Jason Witten, Stephen Gostkowski, and New England's defense. Starting with Witten, he draws a tough matchup against Green Bay, who rank seventh against tight ends, per Football Outsiders. Witten is one of the cheaper tight ends I feel comfortable with this week, much like punting with Will Tye last week. New England is our top projected defense, and is a huge favorite against Houston, who has the lowest team total of the weekend. I will gladly spend up there, with Stephen Gostkowski, who has been averaging 2.7 field goal attempts over the last three games.
The wide receiver core is only consistent with Doug Baldwin, who is coming off of a big game against Detroit, regardless of the stolen touchdown. Seattle-Atlanta could be one of the higher scoring games that goes back and forth, which would bode well for Baldwin. Antonio Brown is used in the GPP lineup, due to a more balanced approach in cash games. Kansas City ranks 19th against opposing WR1s, and hopefully Brown can survive Ben Roethlisberger's home/road splits. Jeremy Maclin is an interesting way to correlate in the Pittsburgh game with Brown, and should be rather low-owned. In the cash game lineup, Julien Edelman and Terrence Williams pop up, which is somewhat odd. I don't mind Edelman in a high total game, but Williams is the surprise. Green Bay is allowing the most FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receiver cores, so I can see the logic.
Le'Veon Bell is an easy plug and play this weekend, against a Kansas City defense that allowed 121 rushing yards per game this season, and a 4.4 YPC. Bell is averaging 150 all-purpose yards per game this season, and I don't see that changing this week, especially with Derrick Johnson not in the middle of that defense. Devonta Freeman pops up in cash, which this is a tough spot for both him and Tevin Coleman. I don't mind either this week, but hard to deem him a cash game play. I prefer Blount if there are cash game players out there. The other New England backs are solely just GPP plays, which we see James White pop up. The problem has been the timeshare, so the floor is rather low for both him and Dion Lewis.
I will dive into Russell Wilson more below.
Optimal GPP Stack
We have Atlanta as the 31st ranked pass defense, and other sites will certainly have them in the bottom five. They have been decent of late, but will have a Russell Wilson led offense coming into town, that has actually struggled on the road. Their offensive line has not been impressive either, so Seattle does carry some general risk.
The Seahawks have a 23.25 total right now, which is fifth on the slate, above Kansas City, Houston, and Pittsburgh. The stack isn't that expensive, and like last week you are getting high floor/ceiling Pittsburgh plays in it. I like the idea of using a Julio Jones for correlation, because I can't see the game just being a complete blowout one way or another.
Paul Richardson has been involved much more of late since Tyler Lockett went down with an injury. After his Wild Card Round production, and highlight reel of catches, ownership should be high.
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