Vegas Projected Win Total – 5.5

As a team who hasn't seen the postseason since 2007, the Jaguars are a struggling franchise in need of a breakout campaign. Last season saw players such as Blake Bortles, Toby Gerhart, and Cecil Shorts III post disappointing seasons for the NFL's 30th ranked offense. Jacksonville managed to score just 15.6 points per game, which left them in the bottom 2 for the 3rd consecutive season. Losing star wideout Justin Blackmon for the season (and likely forever) was a big blow, but the team has made some key offseason moves that may reverse their fortune in 2015.


TE Julius Thomas, who tied Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates for most TD among TE last season with 12, should provide an instant spark for a stagnant offense. Bernard Pierce was scooped up following his release from Baltimore due to a DUI, and will battle with Storm Johnson for a spot on the Jaguars roster this season. Former Florida State standout Rashad Greene (2,493 yards and 16 TD in his final 2 seasons at FSU) is expected to make an immediate impact for QB Blake Bortles as well.


Impact Fantasy Players

Julius Thomas – Football Outsiders (FO) ranked Thomas as the #2 TE in the NFL based on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which takes into account just how valuable a player is over an average player in the same game situation. Thomas ranked 4th in that same category in 2013, and has shown remarkable consistency, hauling in 12 TD passes in each of the last two seasons.


He will be a significant upgrade for a TE group that saw Mercedes Lewis and Clay Harbor combine for just 44 catches on 66 targets for 495 yards and 3 scores in 2014. Thomas is an elite weapon at TE, and could quickly become the most reliable weapon in the Jags' offense. Thomas has been targeted by Peyton Manning 149 times in 27 regular season games over the past two seasons, so volume will be nothing new to the huge 6'5 250 pound target.


Allen Hurns – Hurns hauled in 51 passes on 97 targets last season for 677 yards and 6 TD. While these numbers may seem pedestrian on many offenses, he led the team in TD, YPC, and yards in 2014. Only the recently departed Cecil Shorts had more targets (110) and catches (53), although he ended with just 557 yards and a single score.


Hurns had a pair of huge games last season (4/110/2 Week 1 at Philadelphia and 7/112/2 Week 9 at Cincinnati), but struggled to find consistency throughout the rest of the season. He provided Bortles with a deep target throughout the year, and now that the duo is entering their second season working together, his numbers should continue to improve. Adding an elite target like Thomas will help alleviate some pressure from the Jags' wideouts, which in turn will lead to more opportunities.



Impact Fantasy Rookies

Rashad Greene - To anyone who played CFB DFS, I don't need to tell you about Greene. He broke the ACC all-time record with 3,830 career receiving yards, a number that was good for 23rd best in NCAA history. His 1,363 yards from scrimmage in 2014 was the 3rd- best in the ACC, and he has elite upside. He is a versatile receiver, who can play effectively in the slot, as well as lining up out wide.


Adding a consistent threat to an offense that is a perennial bottom-feeder will go a long way in turning this team into a contender. While the Jags have a lot of work to do, the addition of Greene and Thomas will give this offense a significant boost.


Storylines

This is a team that has been such a bad offense for so long that the transition period may be a tough one. Bortles threw 17 interceptions compared to just 11 TD last season, and has a lot of growing to do in his sophomore campaign. Denard Robinson emerged as a threat in the running game last season, and we could see a crowded backfield with Toby Gerhart, T.J. Yeldon and Bernard Pierce in the mix as well.


Needless to say, this team isn't reaching the playoffs any time soon, but the emergence of some young talent will be fun to watch and could in turn produce some DFS value. Keep your eye on these young players in 2015.


Stock Watch

Up – Blake Bortles

Bortles was terribly inconsistent in 2014, completing just 58.3% of his passes along with an 11/17 TD/INT ratio. However, 2015 is a new year and with the addition of top-tier weapons like Julius Thomas, it is hard not expect a significant improvement from the young signal-caller.

Down – Denard Robinson

Denard Robinson had a nice run in the middle of the season in 2014, compiling 329 yards and 2 TD in the span of 3 weeks, but tapered off near the end. Now that Gerhart is healthy, Yeldon and Pierce and battling for a spot along with Storm Johnson, touches may be hard to come by in 2015. He is best left alone unless something changes in a significant way during the preseason.


Projections

QB

NamePass AttemptsPassing YardsTDYards Per AttemptFantasy Points Per Game
Blake Bortles5393,752196.915.8

RB

NameRush
Attempts (#)
Rush
Attempts (%)
Rushing YardsTDYards Per AttemptsPasses
Caught (#)
Fantasy
Points Per Game
T.J. Yeldon 23669%1,00164.22912.1
Denard Robinson6719%27614.1295.8
Tobey Gerhart3639%10712.9162.9

WR/TE

NameTargetsReceptionsYards Per
Reception
Receiving YardsTDFantasy Points
Per Game
Julius Thomas865811.466449.3
Allen Robinson1277813.11,028613
Allen Hurns563413.245125.8
Rashad Greene362212.126713.5

DEF

SacksInterceptionsFumbles RecoveredDef. TDFantasy Points Per Game
4391227.5



Daily Fantasy Outlook

A lot of the Jaguars value will depend on how well Blake Bortles adjusts to the new season and new weapons. If there isn't a consistent run game, a lot of the pressure will once again fall on the young gunslinger, and he may be up for the challenge with the addition of new offensive weapons.


Julius Thomas looks to be the only player you can target with confidence right out of the gate in 2015, but there may be a lot of value emerging at WR and RB this season. Allen Hurns and Rashad Greene are the most likely to break out at WR, while the RB situation is anyone's guess. Yeldon remains the real back with upside, but still is very crowded, and is a competition to watch.






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