NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
An unfortunate series of events unraveled as Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota both suffered season-ending leg injuries last week, with Carr's injury effectively crushing the Raiders stack. The Saints were a decent option, while the Packers lit up the scoreboard once again. The Texans ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE, and that may just be the worst playoff team of all time. Let's check out the top options for the final week of the regular season. Week 17 starts now:
Top Stack 1
Packers at Lions- Team Total 26.25
|
Name |
Position |
FanDuel Salary |
DraftKings Salary |
Estimated Ownership % |
Projected Points |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | $8,800 | $7,700 | 10-15 | 22.45 (DK), 21.50 (FD)
|
| Jordy Nelson | WR | $8,200 | $8,100 | 20-25 | 20.99 (DK), 14.78 (FD) |
| Davante Adams | WR | $6,800 | $5,700 | 3-5 | 14.99 (DK), 10.42 (FD) |
The Packers may not have the highest team total (more on THAT team in a minute), but they have the most concentrated value with the Steelers' starters all likely to sit. Rodgers to Nelson has been a tremendous play over the course of the season, and last week it hit it's peak with Rodgers and Nelson combining for 79.58 DraftKings points alone. Add in Adams and that number balloons to 93.98 points. While Ty Montgomery had a big game just two weeks ago, I'm rolling with the proven commodity in the Packers' aerial attack. Nelson and Rodgers will be popular, and they should be, in a game with big implications. Throw Adams in at a cheaper salary, and you have monster upside with just three players in your lineup. This stack won't come cheap, but they have a very solid floor and tremendous upside against a Lions team that is allowing the worst (best?) passer rating to opposing gunslingers in 2016.
Top Stack 2
Falcons vs Saints - Team Total 31.75
|
Name |
Position |
FanDuel Salary |
DraftKings Salary |
Estimated Ownership % |
Projected Points |
| QB | $8,700 | $7,400 | 10-15 | 24.50 (DK), 21.05 (FD) | |
| Devonta Freeman | RB | $8,000 | $7,000 | 15-20 | 17.93 (DK), 14.63 (FD) |
| Tevin Coleman | RB | $6,400 | $5,100 | 3-5 | 14.17 (DK), 11.88 (FD) |
| Julio Jones | WR | $8,300 | $8,400 | 5-10 | 18.13 (DK), 12.72 (FD) |
The Falcons-Saints game has a total that is a full touchdown (and extra point) higher than any other this weekend, and the Falcon team total is nearly a full touchdown (minus a missed extra point) higher than any other team total. The only reason they aren't listed as my top stack is that Julio Jones is banged up, and the yardage/touchdown production is sporadic among their WRs. Did you know that Devonta Freeman has more Red Zone targets than Antonio Brown? Of course not, but that only serves to accentuate the upside potential for Atlanta's lead back. Tevin Coleman loves to battle with Mike Gillislee for who can be the more frustrating touchdown vulture in the NFL, but his workload seems fairly safe as well. For me, Ryan/Freeman makes a solid stack in and of itself, but I'm fine with rolling out a full stack if we hear that Julio is even close to 100%. Atlanta is still battling for a playoff bye, and I'm expecting plenty of fireworks from a team that is averaging 33.5 points per game this season...and 38.7 over their last three games.
Contrarian Stack
Redskins vs Giants - Team Total 25.75
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
QB | $7,900 | $6,500 | 3-5 | 20.17 (DK), 18.94 (FD) | |
DeSean Jackson | WR | $7,000 | $5,600 | 5-10 | 14.51 (DK), 10.58 (FD) |
Pierre Garcon | WR | $5,600 | $5,000 | 3-5 | 13.27 (DK), 8.99 (FD) |
The Giants have absolutely nothing to play for in this one aside for some potential bad blood and hoping to keep the Redskins out of the playoffs. Washington could lock up a playoff spot this weekend with a win and some help, so they will be firing away from the start. Aside from an awful performance against the Panthers, Kirk Cousins has been solid, and has three games with at least 29 DraftKings points in his last six games. He fell just four yards short of the 300-yard bonus on DK last time these two teams met, but this time he could be tasked with beating a bunch of backups on the defensive end for New York. Vegas expects more of the same, as the Redskins are listed as big favorites, and the Giants team total is among the lowest on the board. Fire 'em up!
Value Stack
Steelers vs Browns - Team Total 24.75
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
Landry Jones | QB | $6,000 | $5,000 | 2-3 | 12.28 (DK), 12.08 (FD) |
DeAngelo Williams | RB | $4,500 | $5,500 | 3-5 | 14.22 (DK), 11.63 (FD) |
Eli Rogers | WR | $4,700 | $4,000 | 5-8 | 8.32 (DK), 9.05 (FD) |
With the Steelers locked into the #3 spot in the AFC, the starters will get a rest, and the backups will have a chance to beat up on the Browns this weekend. Vegas has plenty of faith in these backups getting it done against a Browns team that FO ranks 30th and 31st against the pass and run, respectively. Landry Jones hasn't been great in spot starts over the last few seasons, but this is an ideal spot for him against the Browns. Eli Rogers has been solid over his last two games, totaling 159 yards and a score. DeAngelo Williams hasn't played in nearly two months, and could end up splitting time with Fitzgerald Touissant in this one, although I'm not a big fan of his or his 2.8 YPA over 35 career carries. He is a decent swerve off of Williams in a GPP if you're rolling a lot of lineups, but temper your expectations there.
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