NFL Target & Touches Report: Week 2

Volume and usage are two areas of Daily Fantasy Football that are key to successful lineup building. The correlation between rushing attempts or receiving targets greatly favor the amount of fantasy points a player receives at the end of the week. We are breaking down interesting team scenarios, trying to get a grip on some of the trickier situations in the NFL. We will be looking at crowded wide receiver cores on a week-to-week basis, as well as split backfields. Some will stay away from uncertainty in NFL, which gives an edge for those willing to take chances on teams with unclear usage. Injuries will also open the door for others, which can be found here. When a WR1 goes down, it isn't always the WR2 who picks up the slack. There is a lot of variance, which is what we will be covering. If there is a team situation that didn't get covered in the article, a comment below or finding me on Twitter (@JGuilbault11) will be the best way get it answered.

New England Patriots Passing Game

The New England Patriots passing game was rather lackluster in their opener, and now travel to the Coors Field of the NFL, aka the SuperDome. Sam Bradford just thrashed this secondary, and now a narrative street Brandin Cooks and Tom Brady come in. The issue with New England is the spread out targets. Danny Amendola is week-to-week with a concussion, and he had seven targets last week. You can see how spread out things were. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen both broke off for monster games on Monday night, which opens the door for a Chris Hogan and Brandin Cooks duo to do the same. I don't expect anyone to be at a significant advantage in targets, as Cooks and Rob Gronkowski should be the leaders. With Amendola out, James White and Hogan should get a bump in targets. Guys like Rex Burkhead and Phillip Dorsett are low target guys this week, but we are hoping they don't find the end zone to mess up all of our stacks. With a current implied total of 30.5, which is a weekly high for New England, this passing attack has plenty of options in all price areas. New Orleans ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass last year, and by Week 1's observations, they didn't get better. White out-snapped Mike Gillislee 43-to-24, while Burkhead saw just 10 snaps out of the game. Hogan was on the field for 90% of the snaps, Cooks 82%, and Gronkowski 96%. Amendola's 32 snaps should fall into the hands of Dorsett or Dwayne Allen.

New Orleans Saints Passing Game

Michael Thomas endured a tough matchup against the Vikings in Week 1, but still led the team in targets (8). That is going to be a pretty good floor week-to-week, and I expect more in this potential shootout. The New England matchup is always one that presents issues for opposing team's top players. They are one of the best at taking away your top player, and making others beat you. That might be the case this week, which would give a bump to secondary guys like Coby Fleener and Ted Ginn. This New England defense struggled against the pass last week, and was burned by Kareem Hunt. He had five receptions for 98 yards, and two touchdowns. If this becomes an issue for New England, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara saw a combined 11 targets out of the backfield against Minnesota. I don't expect to see much of a run game for New Orleans this week, nor do I expect to see Adrian Peterson again. I have zero interest in Tommylee Lewis or Brandon Coleman, who will totally disappear once Willie Snead comes back. New England is a targetable defense through the air, ranking 22nd in DVOA against the pass last season. We saw an early season slump on the defensive side last year, before they sured things up in the second half. Ingram and Kamara draw more appeal on PPR sites, like DraftKings, or 1PM Only slates, hoping for that receiving touchdown that can set you apart. Kamara out-snapped Ingram by five, and Peterson saw just nine total snaps.

Atlanta Falcons Passing Game

Atlanta took care of business, but didn't exactly light things up against the Chicago Bears. This is another high total offense this week (28), who will be involved in a potential shootout against the Green Bay Packers. Julio Jones saw just five targets against Green Bay. Jones could easily be a top scorer this week, against a team that ranked 28th against WR1s last year. Mohammed Sanu saw a Falcons high nine targets in Week 1, but we can expect that to come down in Week 2. In my projected targets, I have flip flopped those targets. Austin Hooper's big week came on two targets, so I won't be chasing that one here. Green Bay's defense allowed 30.1 points per game on the road last year, compared to 19.4 at home. This Falcons team is much better at home, and play with a bit more speed. The running backs are going to cause some chaos, just due to the split workload and both having an ability in the passing game. We saw no issue with Matt Ryan dumping the ball off to these, two, combining for eight targets. That is also another reason why I am down on Hooper's upside. The running backs saw similar touches, but Freeman did out-snap Coleman 36-to-24. The Sunday Night Game will be tournament changing with all the options and scoring that is likely to occur. Jones is my favorite target and high volume guy, while the rest are more GPP dart throws.

Seattle Seahawks Running Game

Thomas Rawls is expected back this week, but workload among these four names is still up in the air. This offensive line is also still one of the worst in the league. With the uncertainty of touches, and offensive line, I am off Seattle's rushing attack. The only way I can get back on, is if Rawls is the clear cut number one and projected for 20 touches. I don't have that being the case this week. Even against a San Francisco defense that was decimated on the ground last year, I will turn my attention elsewhere. Eddie Lacy was quickly overlooked after a few runs for no gain, and eventually Seattle leaned on Chris Carson more so as the game went on. He led the Seahawks in snaps, playing 53% of them. Next in line was C.J. Prosise at 32%. Rawls biggest competition is Carson in my opinion, while Prosise will have the occasional passing down work, and is northing more. The floors of all these guys are oddly low for such a good matchup, unless I notice news out of Seattle talking up Rawls, I will lower my expectations. Even then, I am not putting a ton of stock into reports.

Baltimore Ravens Running Game

Buck Allen and Terrence West both had strong games against Cincinnati, and posted similar outcomes. The touches were nearly identical, as game-flow allowed Baltimore to just run most of the game away. Cleveland's defensive front did not look bad in their opener, but on the road and with the game-flow being similar I still expect heavy usage out of these two. Buck Allen out-snapped Terrance West by six snaps, playing 50% of the snaps. Touches were about equal, but Allen is someone I am more invested in moving forward this week. The industry did a pretty good job at not having these guys as absolute punts, and there are some other guys in their pricing ranges to make them not must plays. This is a good spot for both, and Allen is the guy I have coming out on top for Week 2 touches. West could certainly see closer 20 touches if things go like last week. Baltimore has made it a priority to run the ball, and if 40+ attempts are up for grabs again, we could see similar numbers to Week 1.

Arizona Cardinals Running Game

Our first major injury of the year happened to David Johnson, who had 17 touches in Week 1 before leaving with a wrist injury. Recent news has him out 2-3 weeks, leaving a gaping hole in this Arizona offense that already started out very mediocre. Kerwynn Williams saw six touches, including a red zone touchdown against the Lions, and should see a bulk of the touches in Week 2. Arizona will likely bring in outside help, but that shouldn't take effect until Week 3. It will also likely be former Cardinal, Chris Johnson. This is another perfect game-flow and matchup for Week 2, as Indy is going to be a targetable team with a horrible offense and mediocre defense. Williams is a logical punt if you are fitting in big names, and Andre Ellington is someone I have minimal interest in. Ellington has had a career of injuries, and when healthy is nothing more than an occasional passing-down back. While Ellington out-snapped Williams, this had a lot to do with the game-flow.