NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 10

Running Backs (Week 10)

David Johnson – This matchup just is not fair as it features a battle between the NFL's best RB (averaging nearly 3.0 fantasy points more per game than any other back) against a the league's worst rushing defense that is currently allowing 5.3 yards per carry (YPC) and 193.0 rushing yards per game. Prior to Week 8, David Johnson had touched the ball 28-plus times in three consecutive games and he fell short against the Panthers but still finished with seven receptions (RECs) and 17.80 fantasy points. He possesses both the highest floor and highest ceiling of any back on any given week and now he draws an absolute dream matchup. Fading him in any format is not recommended whatsoever and he should prove to be the ultra-chalk for good reason.

Ezekiel Elliott – Although Ezekiel Elliott's matchup cannot get any better than last week's (unless he were facing the aforementioned 49ers), his outlook should not be downgraded much this week against a Steelers team that has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the RB position. According to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), the Steelers rank as the 22^nd best rushing defense so it basically coincides with the fantasy numbers to this point. Elliott runs behind a dominant Cowboys offensive line and he is basically a lock to flirt with 100 rushing yards any time he steps on the football field at this point. Considering Elliott has not sunk below 18.80 fantasy points since Week 2, there should be no second thoughts to rostering him against a susceptible Steelers defense.

Le'Veon Bell – Dallas' defense does not stand out as one to target but no one can hold Le'Veon Bell down for long. His production suffered last week partially due to Ben Roethlisberger playing injured which hampered the offense's effectiveness as a whole. In theory, a week further removed from the injury should only help and Bell even salvaged a bad game in Week 9 by catching six passes (on nine targets). He probably is not the ideal target for cash games because the Cowboys have allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to the RB position but Bell has the skill set to get it done against anyone. With everyone rostering the other expensive backs listed in this article, Bell makes for a great pivot in GPPs.

Jay Ajayi – What a disappointing week it was for Jay Ajayi last week against the Jets as he failed to reach 200 yards rushing for the first time in three games. Of course, that is a sarcastic comment as Ajayi still rushed for 111 yards and a TD (on 4.6 YPC) against a top three rushing defense according to DVOA. Following three weeks of absolute dominance, and the retirement of Arian Foster, it is well past the time to crown Ajayi as legitimate. Now he will square off against a Chargers team that has allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs including the third most total TDs allowed to the position (13). He is basically a poor man's David Johnson in this matchup at a much more affordable cost. Both he and Johnson are certainly worthy of cash game consideration (and are really worthy starts in any format).

Jordan Howard – With the Bears having had a bye week last week, the masses may have forgotten just how dominant Jordan Howard was in his latest performance. Against the dominant Vikings defense, Howard rushed for a whopping 150-plus yards and just generally made them look sick. Although Coach John Fox can generally be unpredictable at times with how he divvies up the backfield touches, Howard's performance has to have earned him the lion's share moving forward. In Week 10, the team will face a Buccaneers team that has surrendered the ninth most rushing yards per game (117.9), sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs and fourth most actual points per game (29.0) of any defense in the NFL. At a discount from the top backs, Howard possesses similar sort of upside to the elites in a fantastic matchup. Some will probably be scared away from him due to the inconsistency this season but Coach Fox has to have learned his lesson by now. Heavily relying upon Howard and his 5.1 YPC for the season equals productivity whereas the other backs are nowhere near effective. Since Fox is probably coaching for the future of his job, Howard is actually pretty safe this week in all ways, shapes and forms.

Wide Receivers (Week 10)

Julio Jones – The Eagles secondary proved last week that their numbers on paper did not accurately portray the true talent (or lack thereof) in the secondary. According to DVOA, the Eagles headed into Week 9 ranking as the NFL's best passing defense and Odell Beckham Jr. absolutely torched them. This should not have been a surprise considering all of the Eagles' cornerbacks this season have been graded as “poor," per Pro Football Focus. So now it is Julio Jones' turn to tear them apart, and judging by last week, he should have no difficulty doing so.

Antonio Brown – Odell Beckham Jr. scored two TDs against the Eagles corners last week so first instinct is to click on Julio Jones facing them this week and be done. However, Antonio Brown is priced a significant $1,300 cheaper and draws a matchup against a solid but not spectacular group of Cowboys corners. With Ben Roethlisberger getting healthier by the week (in theory), his level of play should only increase next week which bodes well for Brown who has averaged nearly eight more fantasy points per game more with “Big Ben" as opposed to without him. There really is not much more to say about Brown other than he needs to be started most weeks because he is arguably the best player in daily fantasy football when his QB is healthy. Period, end of story.

Emmanuel Sanders – If Colin Kaepernick can carve up the Saints defense for nearly 400 yards passing, then anything is possible against them. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders has been quiet lately….too quiet. He has been targeted at least eight times in each of his past three games and has not eclipsed 12.80 DraftKings (DK)/FantasyDraft (FDr) fantasy points during that span. Something has got to give against this Saints secondary especially since all their corners have graded outside the top 90 at their position this season including Delvin Breaux. Sanders will only draw the matchup with Breaux occasionally (as both move around the formation), so even if the corner has an awakening, it should not affect this slumping WR's prospects of breaking out too much.

Jordan Matthews – Drawing an individual matchup against Brian Poole is not the most ideal set up in the world but Jordan Matthews will square off against a Falcons defense overall that has allowed the second most fantasy points to the position. Most notably, the Falcons have allowed a hefty 1,624 yards receiving to the position and 14 TDs. Although Dorial Green-Beckham is starting to draw more targets, this should only help ease the attention off of Matthews in the long run. To this point, Matthews has either racked up 65 yards receiving or caught a TD pass in all but one game so far (and the outlier was against the Vikings). On all sites, Matthews is reasonably priced for an Eric Decker-like receiver (at least in terms of consistency) in an upper-echelon matchup.

Davante Parker – One of the Dolphins' big play receivers, Davante Parker, has not busted out for a long one nor scored a TD since Sep. 25 against the Browns. Rostering him this week will take a leap of faith but he will head to San Diego to face a Chargers team that has allowed 279 yards passing per game (good for seventh most in the NFL). Casey Hayward is the Chargers' best healthy cornerback and he mostly patrols the slot, which is where Jarvis Landry likes to line up. Therefore, there should be some production headed the way of the outside receivers and Parker could/should finally be the beneficiary. This year was supposed to be Parker's breakout, and while it has not happened yet, it still could be coming. If there were ever a matchup to jump start the process, this would be it.

Tight Ends (Week 10)

Jordan Reed – Taking the entire sample into consideration, the matchup against the Vikings certainly looks like a daunting task for the entire Redskins offense. On the other hand, the team has now surrendered 20-plus points in back to back weeks including seven RECs for 88 yards to Zach Miller a few weeks ago and seven RECs for 92 yards to Eric Ebron in Week 9. As the season goes on, the TE spot is becoming an area of susceptibility for this defense so Jordan Reed can be started with a fair bit of confidence this week…especially in large field GPPs.

Delanie Walker – Sure the Packers only allow 63.5 yards receiving per game to opposing TEs but this Titans offense is firing on all cylinders right now and the Jack Doyle/Dwayne Allen duo caught six passes for 75-plus yards against this defense last week. After a poor stretch early in the year, Delanie Walker has reverted back to the “sure thing" TE we all came to know and love last season when he led the position in RECs (90). Walker has not sunk below 11 fantasy points in three consecutive games and there is no reason he should this week either against a defense that has allowed the 10^th most yards to the position.

Zach Miller – As noted in the Howard tidbit, the Buccaneers are allowing a whopping 29.0 points per game this year and they have allowed the 10^th most fantasy points per game to the TE position. Even so, DVOA suggests the Buccaneers are a stouter defense against the position than the overall numbers suggest but still Miller is in a nice spot now that Jay Cutler has returned. During Miller's tenure with the Bears, he has averaged 0.42 TDs per game in games in which Cutler has attempted 20-plus passes (aka has remained healthy) compared to just 0.38 per game in all other scenarios. In three of the past four weeks, Miller has been targeted at least eight times including 10 times last week with Cutler under center. Clearly Cutler consistently looks for him, and he is priced reasonably enough to fit all the other important pieces mentioned in this article, so he connects all the dots this week.

Kyle Rudolph – One catch, one yard and one TD: Kyle Rudolph's final line from Week 9. While it was disappointing, it obviously could have been much worse had he not been targeted on that goal line play. The Redskins defense ranks 20^th in terms of DVOA and the reason to roster Rudolph is because of the ridiculous percentage of red zone looks the team keeps giving him. Last week was only the second time all season Rudolph failed to reach six targets, the third time he failed to reach seven targets and the fourth time he failed to reach eight targets. In other words, he has been targeted eight-plus times in half his games this season and that should equal production if it were to happen once again this week.

Coby Fleener – While Coby Fleener is never a safe play, and you may have to chew your fingernails to the bone if watching him, TEs have proven to be the best way to defeat this Broncos defense via the passing game. They still rank sixth in DVOA but Drew Brees at home is quite the difficult matchup for them as he will find the open receiver as soon as they create separation. Fleener has that sort of ability at the TE position and the only question will be how many of the passes he actually hangs onto. Since the Broncos defense is not one most typically target against, he should come at an awfully low ownership for a Brees pass-catcher in the SuperDome.