NFL Target & Percentage Ownership Report: Week 3

Running Backs (Week 3)

DeAngelo Williams – With Le'Veon Bell inactive once again, the Steelers are going to continue to run DeAngelo Williams into the ground. Not only does Williams lead the league in carries but he also ranks fourth in receptions (RECs) amongst all running backs (RBs) through two weeks. In other words, he handily leads the league in touches with nine more than Lamar Miller/Matt Forte (59 each). In Week 3, which is presumably his last start for the foreseeable future, the team will square off against an Eagles defense that allowed the fifth most fantasy points to backs in 2015. To begin 2016, the Eagles have allowed a rushing score in each game and do not look like a defense to actively avoid. Williams is RB1 in all of fantasy right now due to both his usage and ability to still make tacklers miss…even at 33 years old. With a player receiving a workload of this size, including a healthy amount of work in the passing game, there really is no reason to pass if you can fit him in any format.

Mark Ingram – To begin the year, Mark Ingram's workload has been a bit disappointing in back-to-back games as he has yet to carry the ball more than 12 times in a game so far this season. The good news is the Falcons have been burned by RBs already as they've allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the position. Last year, Ingram carried the ball 40 more times at home compared to on the road in the same amount of games (six/piece). What was the only game he scored multiple TDs? You guessed it: the game against Atlanta. In the Superdome, the Saints offense just seems to run more smoothly, and I think the 0-2 Saints decide they need to rely on more heavily on the run game in order to compete. Expect a larger workload than Ingram has seen so far including some opportunities at the goal line. His price tag depreciated $700 this week on DraftKings (DK), $400 on FanDuel (FD) and $300 on FantasyDraft (FDr) so there certainly is value at his current cost across the industry.

Devonta Freeman – Amazingly, the snap counts for the Atlanta backfield were nearly identical in Week 2 as Week 1. After Devonta Freeman played 36 snaps to Tevin Coleman's 32 snaps in the opener, Freeman played exactly 36 once again to Coleman's 30. For this reason, people are going to want to avoid this situation at all costs…but not me. The matchup against the Saints is too juicy to simply overlook so it's going to be worth taking a stand on one of the backs. Since Freeman has been seeing the field more often, he's my back of choice despite Tevin Coleman's superior fantasy point output thus far. If it wasn't for a 13 yard TD last week, Coleman would have been quiet as well. While Coleman's price is increasing, Freeman's has dropped despite Coleman's targets decreasing by 66-percent in Week 2 and Freeman's remaining the same. It's not a safe play by any means because either (or even both) backs could go off but the Saints allowed the most yards per carry (YPC) in 2015 and have already allowed the sixth most fantasy points to the position once again. While I'd never deem this a “safe" play, it is an upside play.

Melvin Gordon – The injury to Danny Woodhead was a game changer for Melvin Gordon in Week 2 and it will continue to be moving forward as well. After playing just 23 snaps in the opener to Woodhead's 50, Gordon played 51 snaps this past week with Kenneth Farrow playing 13 and Woodhead just five (before leaving with a torn ACL). Instead of losing touches on third down and never factoring into the passing game (because that was Woodhead's job), the entire workload is Gordon's moving forward. Gordon touched the ball 27 total times last week (including three RECs), scored again and there's no reason to believe this heavy workload will not continue. Coach Ken Whisenhunt loves getting his backs involved and creating a balanced offense that is now sans two of their best pass-catchers (Woodhead, Keenan Allen). Basically, they'll have to rely heavier on the run game moving forward whether they like it or not because their passing game isn't quite as potent. Oh by the way, the Chargers will square off against a Colts team that allowed both Lions backs to go off in Week 1 and 18.30 fantasy points to C.J. Anderson last week. Start him anywhere and everywhere.

Theo Riddick – Ameer Abdullah apparently left the stadium in a walking boot on Sunday so his prospects to play in Week 3 seem questionable at best. A follow-up report from ESPN's Josina Anderson says Abdullah will be meeting with a foot specialist in North Carolina this week. Obviously, whenever a player needs to meet with a specialist, it is bad news. This week, the Lions will square off against the Packers in a game where offense will likely be aplenty on both sides (47.5 point over/under). Even without Abdullah, Theo Riddick doesn't project as an every down back, and he'll likely split carries with Dwayne Washington. However, Riddick will no longer split passing downs with Abdullah and should see an overall increase in workload…and he's already touched the ball at least 12 times in each of the first two games including five targets in each game. In the sites that award a full point-per-reception (PPR), Riddick is a no-brainer even against a Packers team that has been stout against RBs so far. Riddick is more of a hybrid between a wide receiver (WR) and a RB so there is a better chance for him to succeed than most backs. He is still incredibly affordable for a player who caught 80 passes last year and he's even more valuable right now than he has ever been.

Wide Receivers (Week 3)

Antonio Brown – What is there really to say about this guy? Sure he was quiet last game but he actually was slowed down in two contests against the Bengals last year as well. They seem to scheme him well while the rest of the league simply cannot figure him out. The Eagles allowed a big few quarters to Alshon Jeffery before Jay Cutler left due to injury so one can only imagine what Antonio Brown will do. As per usual, he's my highest projected player of the week because he's the best player in fantasy football.

Julio Jones – The concern with Julio Jones is the injuries that are beginning to pile up. Jones had been dealing with an ankle injury since the preseason, re-tweaked it in Week 1 and left Week 2's matchup with a calf strain. While the injury isn't considered serious and he's expected to play on Monday, that doesn't necessarily mean he is going to finish. Still, the matchup against a Delvin Breaux-less Saints is tough to overlook even after a disappointing outing from Odell Beckham Jr. For what it's worth, Jones racked up at least 93 yards in each of his meetings against the Saints last year, and he'll be under-owned on Thursday night slates due to his Monday Night contest. On FDr's slate that includes Monday Night Football, he should be quite popular (and for good reason).

Allen Robinson – My favorite receiver of Week 3 is none other than Allen Robinson who has been quiet in back-to-back games to begin the year. Don't forget he has faced two of arguably the top 10 cornerbacks in those matchups: Sam Shields and Jason Verrett (who both shadowed him). Finally, the matchup gets easier against a Ravens defense that allowed the sixth most fantasy points to receivers in 2016. There is nothing to fear about the defense as a whole and there is nothing to fear in regards to the individual matchup against Jimmy Smith. Robinson has been targeted 20 times in two games and it's time for those targets to start paying off in all formats. Most will focus on him in tournaments but he's cash viable as well.

Jarvis Landry – If there was any doubt as to whether Jarvis Landry's 2015 was a fluke considering all the potential weapons in the Dolphins receiving core, those concerns have officially been silenced. Landry has been targeted 10-plus times in each of his first two games and caught seven-plus passes in each. Incredibly, Landry only failed to catch four-plus passes just twice in all of 2015 and failed to reach double-digit fantasy points on DK/FDr just once all season. If that doesn't speak to his consistency and the allure of rostering him in cash games, then I don't know what does. Oh by the way, he will square off against a Colts team likely without both of their top two corners in this upcoming week and the Dolphins defense is horrendous (so they may be playing catch up). For his price tag, he's an elite play, and one who may be overlooked.

Tyler Lockett – According to Josina Anderson, the MRI on Doug Baldwin's knee came back clean and he was quoted as saying “I'm good." Still, there's the concern he will be limited and/or not play when it comes down to it, meaning an increased opportunity for Tyler Lockett. In Week 2, Lockett made the most of his opportunity by catching all four of his targets for 99 yards, building on his success from the end of last season. Cam Newton exposed the 49ers secondary last week after they dominated a porous Rams offense in Week 1 and I expect Russell Wilson to build on that momentum. Lockett played 62 snaps last week, or third most amongst the Seahawks receivers (Baldwin 71, Jermaine Kearse 70), so it's not like his opportunity is limited. With the duo of Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael carrying the rock, the team is going to look to the passing game and Wilson to make plays more often in upcoming weeks. This matchup is conducive to the receivers and, at this miniscule price, I like the idea of using Lockett as the punt receiver in all formats. His ability to stretch the field actually gives him a fair amount of upside as well.

Tight Ends (Week 3)

Jordan Reed – Okay, so it was a bit frustrating to see Vernon Davis catch passes down the stretch in Week 2, but Jordan Reed is still a superstar at the tight end (TE) position. Even in a quiet game, Reed was targeted seven times and caught five of them for 70 yards. No TE offers a higher floor than Reed and the same is probably true for his ceiling. The Giants allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing TEs in 2015 so this projects as the first true monster week for him this season.

Greg Olsen – If Reed is option 1A at the position on a weekly basis, Greg Olsen is option 1B and he actually out-produced Reed last week. Nevertheless, this matchup doesn't exactly jump off the page against a Vikings defense that looks like one of the best in the league. They rated as about neutral against the position last year and have allowed the 11^th fewest fantasy points to the position this season (although the Packers rarely use theirs). The scary aspect of the matchup is the fact the Vikings just shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense about as well as any defense possibly can. Due to the talent, Olsen can be rostered in cash games, but his upside is limited comparatively to other matchups due to the siege Newton will be under. He can still come through but it will be no easy task. Save him for large field GPPs.

Delanie Walker – The Raiders defense is literally historically bad to this point as they have allowed 808 passing yards in two games to go along with seven passing TDs. Additionally, the Raiders have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the position and the second most yards. Squaring off against a player who led the position in RECs and racked up 1,088 yards in 2015, the Raiders defense is in trouble once again. In Walker's one meeting against the Raiders last year, he caught six passes for 91 yards, and this defense appears to be worst (and his QB more mature). Yet again, Delanie Walker should be the most popular pick at the position in any and all formats.

Antonio Gates – Antonio Gates looks old and slow to me but he still found the end zone last week and still draws a fantastic matchup against the Colts. After allowing the ninth most fantasy points to the position last year, they sit at nearly the same spot through two games this year. Hey, at least they are consistent. Gates is a reliable target for Philip Rivers even if he isn't able to get open at the same rate in which he used to. In the right matchup, the savvy veteran can still get it done, and this is definitely the right matchup. In a game with the highest over/under of the weekend, points will be scored, and Gates is probably Rivers' top end zone target. With a great possibility to score, it will be interesting to see how his ownership percentage plays out. I'll have shares in tournaments but Walker is the guy in cash games once again.

Jesse James – Ben Roethlisberger finds a way to make his TE fantasy relevant whether it is an aging Heath Miller or the guy slated to backup Ladarius Green prior to the season opener (Jesse James). At near minimum price, James has caught at least three passes in each of his first two games and capped off Week 2 with a score. While the Eagles are generally a stout team against the position, their defense is in trouble with all the pieces they'll be tasked with covering in Week 3. Unlike the Bears or Browns, the Steelers present a real threat to consistently move the ball. In my opinion, this is one of those games where the Steelers offense goes absolutely crazy and all of the main pieces get theirs. Since his price rose again, he'll fly under the radar in both cash games and GPPs, yet he's viable in both.