NFL Week 1 Slate Breakdown

Patriots vs. Steelers (Thursday, 8:30pm ET)

Vegas: O/U: 52pts, Patriots Total: 30 pts, Steelers Total: 23 pts

We hear it time and again, and it's usually advice worth heeding: fade Thursday night daily fantasy plays. Daily gamers who fill their rosters with Thursday night options just want action in that weekly early-week island game, the thinking goes. Fade Thursday and target Sunday.

That thinking might well change, and for good reason, this week as the Steelers travel to New England in what Vegas projects as the week's second highest-scoring affair. The Patriots, headed by their fearless legal victor Tom Brady, are projected to put up 30 points, while Pittsburgh's offense – sans Le'Veon Bell, Maratavis Bryant and center Maurkice Pouncey – are projected to score 23.

Pittsburgh defenders say they may have found the secret sauce for stopping the usually-unstoppable Rob Gronkowksi: crowd him at the line and remain physical with the beast for 60 minutes. ESPN reports that Steelers linebackers Lawrence Timmons and Ryan Shazier are expected to cover Gronk, using that decidedly physical style. Here's the thing: there was hardly a worse pass-covering linebacker in 2014 than Timmons, who was graded by Pro Football Focus as the league's 47th best coverage linebacker. Shazier, of course, was one of the few linebackers graded as a worse coverage linebacker in 2014. Gronk remains worth his enormous daily fantasy price tag.

Pittsburgh's secondary gave up an eye-popping completion percentage of 65.8 in road games last season – fifth worst in the NFL. New England's dinged up receiving corps shouldn't be all that worrisome for those stacking Brady a Pats pass catcher. I think a sneaky stack would be pairing Brady with Danny Amendola, who is expected to start for the Patriots after a white-hot end to the 2014-15 season. Amendola was targeted at least a half dozen times in five of the team's final six contests, exploiting matchups as defenses focused on Gronk and Julian Edelman. Amendola, with Brandon LaFell on the temporary shelf, makes for an intriguing bottom-basement play against what could be a sieve of a secondary.

Antonio Brown, who saw a whopping 178 targets last season, makes for an ultra-safe daily fantasy option in a game that will likely see the Steelers take to the air early and often. With or without Martavis Bryant in the lineup, Brown is primed to see double-digit looks in this one. Perhaps Brown's most amazing feat: he notched a sky-high 0.59 fantasy points per target in 2014 even with massive volume. He is a machine and there's probably no safer receiver in Week 1.

Ben Roethlisberger loses a lot of his fantasy shine without Bell and Bryant in the lineup. He didn't post elite numbers until Bryant emerged in Pittsburgh's passing attack last season, so there's little reason to think he can replicate those gaudy numbers with rookie Sammie Coates and Just A Guy Markus Wheaton filling in for Martavis. New England allowed a completion percentage of just 56.7 percent in 2014 home games. We shouldn't chase quarterback volume in daily fantasy, and that's precisely what Roethlisberger has going for him in Week 1.

I see both backfields as daily situations to avoid in Week 1. I want no part of DeAngelo Williams in this game – or any other, really. I suppose dirt-cheap Brandon Bolden becomes a somewhat appealing option after the surprising release of Jonas Gray, though the murkiness of New England's backfield, as per usual, leaves a lot to be desired.

Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts

Vegas: O/U: 46 pts, Bills Total: 22 pts, Colts Total: 25 pts

Indianapolis is just a field goal favorite in this one, meaning game flow shouldn't be too out of whack when the Colts visit Buffalo. That game script equilibrium is important for anyone and everyone rolling out Tyrod Taylor in daily fantasy, as rushing signal callers don't usually thrive when forced to drop back and pass. Rich Hribar, writer for The Fake Football, has shown that when running quarterbacks become one dimensional, bad things happen.

If you're using Talyor – who ran for 108 yards on 11 preseason attempts -- in daily fantasy this week, you're not doing so because you're hoping the Colts seize a hefty lead early on. Buffalo is projected by Vegas to notch 22 points in this one – a hopeful number for those deploying Taylor and his rock-bottom DFS price point.

Charley Clay is the play if you're inclined to stack anyone with Taylor against the Colts. Clay, who caught all four of his preseason targets for 95 yards and a score, is a cheap DFS play and the only viable red zone threat for Buffalo. Clay's floor is, well, scary, but I think his ceiling is high enough to be enticing in GPPs.

Sammy Watkins is expected to see a lot of shutdown cornerback Vontae Davis. Good luck with that. Watkins is one of the least attractive Opening Day plays.

Probably I'm not alone when I look at Andrew Luck (and most of the Colts' offense) as a fairly easy fade in Week 1. No one gave up fewer passing scores per game in 2014 than Buffalo, and only two defenses allowed fewer yards per passing attempt. This road matchup is decidedly bad for Indy, especially given the high prices you'll have to pay for their DFS services. There are at least four quarterbacks who make for better cash game plays than Luck in Week 1 (Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Tom Brady and Drew Brees), by my humble estimation.

I suppose pieces of the Colts' passing attack could be so unpopular in Week 1 that they become contrarian. I doubt it though, given the bankable assets Colts pass catchers were in 2014. I'm certainly not paying up for T.Y. Hilton, and I'm queasy about plugging in the ultra-inefficient Andre Johnson against what is expected to be a brutal Bills secondary.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Vegas: O/U: 49 pts, Bears Total: 21 pts, Packers Total: 28 pts

I think this matchup has whacked-out game script all over it, as the potent Green Bay offensive machine gets its crack at a Bears' defense shaping up to be one of the league's worst. Chicago was the NFL's worst pass defense in 2014, per PFF, and a bottom-half run defense.

There are plenty of Packers stacks you could deploy in this one, but here's one that might be overlooked in DFS tournaments: Green Bay's defense and Eddie Lacy. What do teams do when they have a comfortable lead? They run the ball. And what do opposing offenses do when they face a big deficit? They throw. That's what we want: Lacy to pound away at the Bears' front seven while Jay Cutler is forced to the air. Cutty, over the past couple seasons, has averaged 1.5 interceptions in Chicago losses – double his interception average in Bears wins.

Green Bay is a seven-point favorite in this one.

Devante Adams will be widely owned across the DFS landscape. It's tough, however, to turn down the chance to use a receiver catching passes from Aaron Rodgers for such a low price. We surely won't have this chance again if (or when) Adams roasts the suspect Bears secondary. The Packers are projected to score 29 points this week. I have a suspicion that Adams might be involved in the compiling of those points.

The Randall Cobb-Rodgers combination is the week's best stack, per the stack generator.

Eddie Royal, banged up throughout August like every other Chicago pass catcher, could be in for quite the workload if things go the way Vegas projects. While we shouldn't chase quarterback volume, receiver volume is an entirely different creature. Alshon Jeffery's status remains unknown, I wouldn't be shocked to see Cutler throw it 40 times against the Packers, and Chicago offensive coordinator Adam Gase has talked up Royal all offseason. I think double-digit targets are in the cards for Royal – a glut of opportunity for such a low-priced DFS option.

It's not clear if Matt Forte will be the ludicrous PPR machine he was in Marc Trestman's offensive scheme. Game script should keep Chicago from running the ball very much in this one, leaving Forte to meet his DFS price through the air. He makes for an unappealing Week 1 play at his price, with a handful of cheaper running backs facing easier matchups and friendlier game scripts.

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Vegas: O/U: 41 pts, Texans Total: 21 pts, Chiefs Total: 20 pts

I would be all over the Chiefs' defense here if they weren't playing on the road. In compiling weekly defensive streaming scores, three factors jump out as most important: The defense is favored, playing at home and facing an inaccurate quarterback who will likely throw quite a bit. KC checks two of those three boxes.

Only the Jets-Browns matchup is projected to be lower scoring than this affair. I find myself fading this matchup with five games projected at more than 49 total points. There's very limited DFS sex appeal here.

Kansas City's offense slowed down vicious pass rushes in recent seasons with screen passes to Jamaal Charles. With JJ Watt and company coming after Alex Smith, I think Charles could be in for a nice day through the air, even if he struggles on the ground (or if Andy Reid pulls an Andy Reid and abandons the run early). Charles has reeled in an average of 3.7 passes per game since Reid took over in KC.

The Chiefs have made is clear that Jeremy Maclin will be a key (the centerpiece) of their offensive attack, so even if you're not a Maclin fan (I'm not), his opportunity is impossible to ignore. Only 10 defenses allowed more passing yards per game than Houston in 2014. Texans opponents last year attacked the defense via the air more than almost any other team. Sixty-one percent of offensive plays against Houston were of the passing variety; only Denver and Detroit saw more passes thrown against them. I see Maclin as a potential top-10 wide receiver at with a WR2 price tag.

DeAndre Hopkins – who could fairly easily lead the NFL in targets this year – starts his season against a secondary ranked by PFF as the 10th worst in 2014. The Chiefs faced almost 35 passes per game in 2014. If Brian Hoyer tosses 35 passes, it wouldn't shock me to see 15 of those attempts go in Hopkins' direction. Hopkins turned 12 catchable deep balls last year into 458 yards and four scores, according to PFF data. He's good.