NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Each week we will be covering two top stacks, a value stack, and a contrarian stack. Playing two or more players from the same team can add to your ceiling, especially if that team goes off. Stacking is a great way to get an advantage in tournaments, and even cash games. We will narrow down projected fantasy points, ownership, and info for their matchups.
Top Stack 1
Cowboys vs Packers - Team Total 26.5
|
Name |
Position |
FanDuel Salary |
DraftKings Salary |
Estimated Ownership % |
Projected Points |
| Dak Prescott | QB | $7,700 | $6,800 | 10-15 |
20.09 (DK), 19.89 (FD) |
| Dez Bryant | WR | $7,800 | $6,500 | 10-15 | 15.40 (DK), 12.90 (FD) |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | $8,900 | $8,800 | 20.-25 | 21.13 (DK), 19.53 (FD) |
This one has all the makings of a shootout from the 52 point total, the 1-point spread, and two average at best defensive units. Football Outsiders ranks the Packers as the #22 defense this far this season, while Dallas sits at 18th. Ezekiel Elliott has been a tremendous all-around back since his suspension was overturned, totaling 395 total yards and three touchdowns through four weeks. The most encouraging thing has been his involvement in the passing game, as he has hauled in an average of four passes per game in 2017...which leads us to Dez Bryant, who ALSO has 16 catches on the season, but on a whopping 40 targets. He has 13+ targets in two of four games, and now faces a Green Bay defense that FO ranks 21st against #1 WR this season. Prescott just continues to be the model of consistency, and has six total scores over his last two games (5 passing, 1 rushing). This game looks to be the most exciting one of the week, and getting exposure to both sides looks like a +EV move.
Top Stack 2
Steelers vs Jaguars - Team Total 26.75
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
QB | $7,900 | $6,400 | 5-10 | 16.57 (DK), 16.37 (FD) | |
Antonio Brown | WR | $8,800 | $8,400 | 10-15 | 18.89 (DK), 15.24 (FD) |
Le'Veon Bell | RB | $9,500 | $9,500 | 20-25 | 21.30 (DK), 18.95 (FD) |
The Steelers are back at home, and you know what that means. Fire up the Big Ben/Brown stacks! Roethlisberger had a QB rating nearly FORTY points higher at home in 2016, and the Steelers now face a Jaguars defense that ranks #1 against the pass (per FO) and #32 against the run (FO). To me, those numbers are misleading, considering they have faced a rookie in DeShaun Watson (his first two starts were subpar), Marcus Mariota and the Titans (who scored 37 points), Joe Flacco and the Ravens (16 TOTAL points last two weeks), and Josh McCown and the Jets (who by the way, won that game). While this is certainly an improved unit, this is definitely still a great spot for the Steelers. Le'Veon Bell had 35 carries last week, and is the second-most targeted (starting) running back in the NFL behind Todd Gurley. This is a prime spot for the Steelers to dominate, ride Bell to victory, and do so at potentially lower ownership.
Contrarian Stack
Eagles vs Cardinals - Team Total 26
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
QB | $7,600 | $6,600 | 0-5 | 17.21 (DK), 16.91 (FD) | |
Wendell Smallwood | RB | $5,900 | $5,700 | 5-10 | 13.29 (DK), 8.58 (FD) |
LeGarrette Blount | RB | $5,900 | $8,600 | 5-10 | 19.28 (DK), 8.20 (FD) |
Zach Ertz | TE | $6,600 | $6,200 | 15-20 | 14.18 (DK), 11.08 (FD) |
While it looks like the Cardinals have been tough against the run on paper, they haven't exactly faced the gauntlet of RBs thus far in 2017 (Ameer Abdullah, Frank Gore, Ezekiel Elliott, Carlos Hyde). The latter two on that list (Elliott in particular) are good backs, but the Eagles have a very unique 1-2 punch in Smallwood and Blount, who combined for 235 total yards on 31 touches (5 catches) against the Chargers in Week 4. The Wentz/Ertz connection makes sense here as the Cardinals rank 22nd against opposing TE in 2017 (per FO), and the Eagles have targeted their TE on a whopping 29.9% of passing plays, which is tops in the league. Ertz leads TE with 36 targets through four weeks, and the Eagles as a team rank 3rd in the NFL with 392.5 YPG. This stack has big upside at a reasonable cost.
Value Stack
Texans vs Chiefs - Team Total 23.5
Name | Position | FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Estimated Ownership % | Projected Points |
DeShaun Watson | QB | $7,500 | $6,200 | 0-5 | 16.73 (DK) 16.53 (FD) |
Lamar Miller | RB | $6,500 | $5,000 | 5-10 | 13.38 (DK), 12.08 (FD) |
WR | $7,700 | $7,600 | 15-20 | 16.02 (DK), 13.17 (FD) |
With a fairly low implied total, I'm not expecting a lot of Texans stacks out there this week. However, I do think each of these players will see a good amount of ownership on their own...at least on FanDuel. Since DraftKings decided to try and suck every penny out of DFS players with the "main" slate, which no longer includes this potentially explosive game on Sunday night, you can only use this stack on FanDuel (where you STILL have to use a Kicker...in 2017). With all that said, Watson looks like the second coming of Randall Cunningham right now, and his rapport with Hopkins (who is the NFL leader in targets through four weeks) has opened the door for Miller to find his footing offensively as well, as both he and Will Fuller (an awesome play in his own right) found the end zone twice last week. I'll be all over this offense on FanDuel, and the upside here is as high as any, despite a fairly tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that FO ranks 9th against the pass and 25th against the run (although they do rank 24th against #1 WR).
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