NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
Elite Plays
Matt Ryan (QB), Atlanta Falcons | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Time of Possesion | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$8,700 | $7,400 | 0 | 3.000 | 7.900 | 22:50:00 | 3 | 24 |
I loved Ryan last week, and I love him just as much this week. Ryan was just shy of 300 yards in week 1 throwing for 298 yards. He also threw two touchdowns but did have two interceptions. This week, he gets to face a Giants team that got man handled by Tony Romo and the Cowboys, who played most of the game without their top wide out as a result of Dez Bryant breaking his foot. The Giants allowed three touchdowns through the air and nearly eight yards per attempt. The Falcons once again have a high team total of 24 and should easily eclipse that in this game. I fully expect Ryan to have similar or better numbers than he had in week 1.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 30-35%
GPP: 20-25%
DraftKings
Cash: 35-40%
GPP: 25-30%
Drew Brees (QB), New Orleans Saints | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Time of Possesion | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$8,900 | $7,800 | 2 | 4.000 | 13.100 | 28:30:00 | 1 | 28.8 |
Brees missed Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills in week 1. It showed as Brees played the check down game last week. His running backs combined for 13 catches and 149 yards. Brees still finished the game with 355 yards passing and a touchdown, but he failed to get anything going in the vertical passing game. Things should change this week against the Bucs. They had the worst defensive day of any team in week 1. They allowed over 13 yards per pass attempt and gave up four touchdowns through the air. These numbers look even worse when put into context as it was rookie Marcus Mariota doing the damage in his first start. The Saints have the second highest team total on the board this week at 28.8 points. They might also get C.J. Spiller back which will give Brees another weapon. I fully expect Brees to reach similar numbers in passing yards as last week but with a touchdown or two more.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 25-30%
GPP: 15-20%
DraftKings
Cash: 20-25%
GPP: 10-15%
Value Plays
Carson Palmer (QB), Arizona Cardinals | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Time of Possession | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$7,800 | $6,700 | 0 | 3.000 | 8.200 | 31:52:00 | 0 | 23.8 |
Palmer is back and fully healthy. He looked like the old Carson in week 1 throwing for over 300 yards and three scores against the Saints. With Andre Ellington out, Palmer may be asked to throw even more than the 32 times he did in week 1. His matchup could not be any juicer as the Bears defense did not look improved at all from last season in week 1. They allowed Aaron Rodgers to do whatever he wanted and did not record a single sack. Rodgers was able to throw for 8.2 yards per attempt and three touchdowns. I do not think the Bears can stop Palmer or the Cardinals this week. I fully expect Palmer to continue his hot streak in which he has thrown for 4,466 yards and 30 touchdowns in his past 16 starts.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 10-15%
GPP: 25-30%
DraftKings
Cash: 10-15%
GPP: 20-25%
Tyrod Taylor (QB), Buffalo Bills | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Time of Possession | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$6,300 | $6,200 | 3 | 1.000 | 9.200 | 27:55:00 | 1 | 22 |
Taylor looked great in his debut, and despite having his price jump over $1,000 on both sites, he remains a great value. He showed off what he could do with his legs rushing for 41 yards. What surprised me the most is what he was able to do through the air. He went 14-for-19 for 195 yards and a score. He has the ability to throw the deep ball and looks like he is not going to force things. Taylor gets another decent matchup this week against the Patriots who allowed 9.2 yards per attempt in the opener. He should also be able to get his main weapon Sammy Watkins involved in this game as the Patriots do not have a Vontae Davis type player who can shadow and shut Watkins down. With Taylor's ability to run the ball and the Patriots secondary not being great, I fully expect Taylor to have another solid ROI at his price.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 5-10%
GPP: 10-15%
DraftKings
Cash: 5-10%
GPP: 15-20%
GPP Plays
Tom Brady (QB), New England Patriots | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Time of Possession | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$8,300 | $7,500 | 2 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 30:56:00 | 3 | 23 |
It is hard to put a player who might be the best to ever play the game as a GPP play only, but that is exactly what Brady is this week against the Bills. Brady led the quarterback position in fantasy points in week 1 after throwing for 288 yards and four touchdowns, but he gets one of the toughest matchups in the league this week. The Bills shut down Andrew Luck only allowing him to complete 53.1% of his passes and picking him off twice. They have the talent upfront to pressure Brady and the secondary to stop his weapons. Brady also struggled his last time facing the Bills only throwing for 80 yards.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 10-15%
GPP: 15-20%
DraftKings
Cash: 10-15%
GPP: 15-20%
Joe Flacco (QB), Baltimore Ravens | |||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | Opp. Sacks Per Game | Opp. Passing TD's Per Game | Opp. Yards Per Attempt Allowed | Opp. Time of Possession | Opp. Turnovers Forced Per Game | Vegas Team Total |
$8,100 | $6,200 | 0 | 2 | 7.900 | 27:28 | 0 | 25 |
Flacco looked awful in week 1 against the Broncos. He had his worst game since week 16 of 2010. Flacco finished the game with 117 yards and two interceptions and was pressured throughout the game. He was sacked two times and hit nine more times. This week, he gets an Oakland team that struggles to pressure the quarterback or stop the pass. They recorded zero sacks and gave up 269 yards and two touchdowns through the air. I am looking for a big bounce back game from Flacco this week. Flacco is a much better play on DraftKings where his price is depressed.
Ownership Estimates:
FanDuel
Cash: 0-5%
GPP: 5-10%
DraftKings
Cash: 0-5%
GPP: 5-10%
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