Roster Construction For Entering Multiple GPP Lineups

I'm going to let you in on a secret. Just because you enter 100 lineups into a GPP does it mean you're guaranteed to win a lot of money. In fact, more times than not you're going to lose money. What entering multiple lineups does though is allows you to account for multiple possibilities and in NFL DFS that can be difference between a minimum cash and a big score. Say one of your lineups hits just right but you have a defense that only scores 2 points. That same lineup with a defense that scores 15 points can make you substantial profit. This article is going to go over some thought processes and tips on how to approach roster construction for entering multiple GPP lineups.

Have a plan!

The biggest mistake I see DFS players make, and it's one that I've been guilty of as well, is not having a goal in mind when it comes to building a lineup. Players put together a lineup because they think it looks like a winning lineup without taking into consideration any analysis. As you are going into your roster construction you should identify what it is you are looking to accomplish and be specific.

1.How many lineups are you going to enter?

2.How big of a core group of players are you going to utilize?

3.Which players will constitute your core group?

4.Outside of the core group, which players are you targeting?

Number of Lineups

How many lineups you enter should really boil down to one thing and that is how big your bankroll is and what GPP's you are wanting to enter. Playing GPP's is very high variance and as such you should try and avoid the risk of ruin by only putting in a small percentage (5-10%) of your bankroll on any given NFL week. If your bankroll is $1,000, then you're looking at putting in $50-$100 into play which will leave your bankroll with $900-$950 if you happen to lose it all that weekend – if that were the case you would just do the same the following week but the 5-10% would mean you would play $45-$90 if you only had $900 in your bankroll. Obviously these amounts only let you enter a small number of lineups into an event like the DraftKings Millionaire Maker but if you're looking to play multiple lineups it would allow you to enter 20+ into a lower buy-in GPP. Determine what your budget is for the week, which GPP's you are entering, and the final number of lineups you will be creating to enter into those contests.

The Core Group

You will never be able to cover all possibilities and combinations of players. It's mathematically impossible given the entry limitations sites have. The best approach is to identify a core group of players that you like for the week, whether it be based on in-depth research or your own personal hunches/preferences (although I prefer using research, every once in a while it's good to go on a gut feeling), and focus building your lineups around that core. So how big should your core be? That depends on the number of lineups you are entering. Some DFS players will stick to a strict group regardless of the number of entries but my philosophy is the more lineups you are entering, the bigger that core group can and should be – but within reason. If you're entering 10 lineups, that core group might be 2 QB's, 4 RB's, 5 WR's, 2 TE's, and 2 DEF's (or K on sites that use K). If you're entering 100 lineups those numbers might jump to 4 QB's, 6 RB's, 10 WR's, 4 TE's and 4 DEF's/K's.

Identify how many at each position you want to be in your core and then start working on selecting that core. Who you choose should be based on several factors with the two primary ones being their projected value for the upcoming game and then their price point at the site you are playing and the correlating projected points/dollar. You will also want to factor in projected ownership percentages and how much exposure you want to a particular player or group of players.

The Non-Core Group

The way you will differentiate your lineups is with your non-core players. These are the plug in players you are utilizing to fit your team within the cap. More often than not these are players that are dart throws that are difficult to project in terms of how they will produce. Think Martavis Bryant or Davante Adams and you'll have an idea of the type of player I am talking about. Much like your core group you need to have a narrow group of players that will constitute your non-core group. These should be players that have high upside at a low cost with strong consideration to players that will be low-owned to set your lineups apart.

Putting It All Together

For ease of explanation, I'm going to provide a hypothetical situation on how to put together multiple lineups using your core and non-core groups. Here's an example lineup built in 2014 for the December 14 ^th DraftKings Millionaire Maker:

QB: Eli Manning (Core) RB: Jeremy Hill (Core)

RB: Fred Jackson (Non-Core)

WR: Odell Beckham (Core)

WR: Jarvis Landry (Non-Core) WR: Marquess Wilson (Non-Core)

TE: Jimmy Graham (Core)

FLEX: Demaryius Thomas (Core)

DEF: Bengals (Core)

So there's a team with 6 of your core group in it and three non-core plug ins. Now let's look at how we build a second lineup utilizing that same core group but differentiate it with non-core players:

QB: Eli Manning (Core) RB: Jeremy Hill (Core)

RB: Latavius Murray (Non-Core)

WR: Odell Beckham (Core)

WR: Harry Douglas (Non-Core) WR: Kelvin Benjamin (Non-Core)

TE: Jimmy Graham (Core)

FLEX: Demaryius Thomas (Core)

DEF: Bengals (Core)

Do this about 3 more times with different non-core players and you have a good Manning/Beckham/Hill/Thomas stack. You can plug in different pieces in this same core to also differentiate more – say replacing Graham with Gronkowski or the Bengals with a different defense. That's the general idea behind creating multiple lineups. Know how many lineups you are working with, how diverse you want to be, do your research to determine which players you want to target and then start building your lineups based upon that information. Do that and you'll go a long way towards taking down a big GPP.