Premium Members
Login Register

We are beginning to close in on the final few weeks of the season as Thanksgiving is next week and we are essentially done with scheduled bye weeks. There are a ton of 6-3 teams all fighting for playoffs. The NFC West and NFC East are two divisions at complete opposite ends of the spectrum. All teams are in contention for the division yet the West is by far the better division where six wins is likely to win the East. Week 11 sets up some very big games between playoff potential teams. The Cardinals travel to Seattle in a big division game where everybody is 6-3 but the 49ers. The Packers and Colts square off in a game where not a lot of people want to believe in these teams. It makes sense and we will see who can come out on top. The Eagles against the Browns is also a massive game for both teams. If the Browns win this week, they are in a very good spot to make the playoffs. The Eagles with a loss still have a chance but it will continue to cause the organization to contemplate their future with these players.

Matchup

Spread

Over/Under

Cardinals at Seahawks

Seahawks -3

57.5

Eagles at Browns

Browns -3.5

46

Falcons at Saints

Saints -4.5

50.5

Lions at Panthers

Panthers -3

49

Patriots at Texans

Patriots -2

47.5

Steelers at Jaguars

Steelers -10

47.5

Packers at Colts

Colts -2.5

51.5

Bengals at Washington

Washington -1.5

46.5

Titans at Ravens

Ravens -6.5

49

Cowboys at Vikings

Vikings -7.5

48

Chiefs at Raiders

Chiefs -6.5

56.5

Rams at Buccaneers

Buccaneers -3.5

47.5

Dolphins at Broncos

Dolphins -3.5

45

Jets at Chargers

Chargers -8.5

47


ARI @ SEA

The NFL might have scheduled this game by error as we have usually a run of pretty bad games on Thursday night but this is one of the best of the week. Seattle has been slipping of late and Russell Wilson's play has been pressing which has resulted in some turnovers. A lot of this comes from the defense being horrendous, especially against the pass and Wilson needing to compensate. These two teams played back in Week 7, which was a comeback from the Cardinals who scored 20 points in the second half and overtime, where the Seahawks fell flat. There isn't a lot of trust in the Seahawks, which makes sense, but this is also still a young Arizona team with still a questionable head coach at the helm. The 58 over/under is very high but these teams crushed that before overtime. I expect the Seattle offense to bounce back this week and hope this Seattle line drops a bit.

PHI @ CLE

Philadelphia not showing up against the Giants left a lot of people in the mud. The question now will be will they move desperately against the Eagles or go back to the well? Especially against a Browns team who has been playing well and winning games. We will need to monitor the weather here as the Browns last two homes games have been daunting for the passing and kicking teams. The Browns are -3.5 favorites this week and putting trust in Baker Mayfield is still a major issue for me, but the defense is a really good front seven that can help pressure Carson Wentz. There is a lot of overthinking with this Eagles team but the fact might be they are just flat out bad, and the Browns can put this one away.

ATL @ NO

Public money is coming in on the Falcons hot with the news of Drew Brees. Jameis Winston is likely going to be the starter, even though Sean Payton continues to flaunt the idea of starting Taysom Hill. The Sants have not been a good team ATS this season at 4-5, given their 7-2 record. The Falcons have been a bit better coving in 4-5 games this season and defensively they have been more sound since Dan Quinn left. The Falcons are certainly given enough points here for me to get behind the public, especially if they can get a healthy Calvin Ridley back.

DET @ CAR

The Panthers have a -3 spread this week and some books do not have it up yet due to the Teddy Bridgewater news. Regardless I like Detroit here this week in a sneaky game where they can cover but also straight up win. The move to D'Andre Swift is a massive step forward for the offense and only took eight games for that to sink in. Both teams are in a similar situation missing a key player on the offensive side, with Kenny Golladay and Christian McCaffrey. Detroit can hammer the ground game in this one against the Panthers run defense and Matthew Stafford can certainly do enough go get by.

NE @ HOU

Houston's season continues to spiral towards a likely double-digit number in the loss column, while New England has rebounded beating the Jets and Ravens over the last two weeks. With Houston's run defense in shambles allowing over five yards a pop, this screams a classic New England game where they run 30+ times and call it a day. Weirdly enough these offenses have not been that far off from each other as the Texans are only scoring 22.2 points per game this season. New England is in good shape this week to cover.

PIT @ JAX

This is the largest spread of the week and that shouldn't be a surprise. Jacksonville played the Packers pretty tough but it had more to say about the Packers taking that game lightly just as Pittsburgh took Dallas lightly a few weeks ago. This spread could easily be closer to 13 or 14, and I like Pittsburgh to just keep on moving. This is an easy win for them and the defense gets to face a backup quarterback and they will be able to stop their best weapon, James Robinson. It is hard to buy into this Jags cover especially with Steelers pass offense serving up big numbers.

GB @ IND

The Colts-Packers game is one of the more intriguing games of the weekend. The Colts are favorites here and while the Colts defense has played very well, the fact Aaron Rodgers is a dog to Philip Rivers is laughable. If the Colts are unable to get the ground game going against this defense then they will be in trouble. The Packers are 4-1 ATS on the road this season. They will get their top corner back and their pass defense can certainly cause issues for Rivers and this offense. Give me the Packers, as they have too much fire power.

CIN @ WAS

A battle between two bottom-five teams this season but both have their positives. The Bengals offense struggled last week but generally have been able to put up decent numbers behind Joe Burrow and these receivers. However, the Washington defense has been very good for most of the season and they generate pressure at a high rate. That is a concern against a bottom-five offensive line. Alex Smith puts them in a better spot to win but the defense will have to have a better performance than last week, but this is a small line on Washington and I like them to bounce back.

TEN @ BAL

Two 6-3 teams that are trending in the wrong direction square off this week. Baltimore are touchdown favorites again here and are 4-4-1 ATS this season while the Titans are 3-6. What really concerns me is that the Titans offense has really struggled against some of the elite defenses in the league but if the Ravens front line can't get healthy, this could be a Derrick Henry repeat game. This is a game I don't fully trust either side in covering, but would lean towards Baltimore figuring things out offensively against one of the poorer defenses in the league.

DAL @ MIN

Minnesota is on a hot streak right now and are 4-5 with a chance to get above .500 over the next few weeks with some easy opponents. It starts this week against the 2-7 Cowboys, who are 1-8 ATS. The Vikings are 6-3 ATS this season and are rather large favorites this week. Dallas should get Andy Dalton back which helps but the offensive line play needs to improve desperately. Minnesota's defense struggled at the beginning of the year but has played better of late. However, this is a lot of WRs they will have to deal with and that has been an issue.

KC @ LV

The Chiefs lost to the Raiders earlier this season, otherwise they'd be sitting 9-0 right now. Coming off a bye we can point towards Andy Reid always having his team ready to go and that should be the case this week. The only shot of the Raiders pulling off another one is getting the ground game going and sustaining lengthy drives, while finishing them off with touchdowns. It has been a way to beat the Chiefs, yet not everyone can pull it off.

LAR @ TB

The Monday Night Football game this week is certainly one to watch. The Rams defense is no joke and that secondary will face a trio of wide receivers that are well within the top-20. Vegas is valuing the defense on both sides with a 47.5 over/under. Neither team has been great at covering the spread this season and the under has been favorable in a combined 11 out of the 19 games these two teams have played. Public money is on the over currently, and this game is going to play very close to that 47.5. The Rams are +3.5 and I like them to cover this week with that talented defense.

MIA @ DEN

Miami at -3.5 is something to hammer right now before it gets any larger. Drew Lock is now in question for this week and not that makes a huge difference, but obviously facing a backup quarterback is a big edge for the opposing team. Miami's defense also continues to be a problem for opposing teams and a turnover prone Denver team is in store for a troubling week. This is one of the safer lines to bet in my opinion as Miami is a legitimate threat in the AFC and the rebuild is way ahead of schedule.

NYJ @ LAC

Teams against the Jets have been strong favorites as you'd expect, and while this isn't double-digits, it is still over a touchdown for the Chargers. They had a strange game with play-calling last week getting away from everything that has worked for the offense so far. The Chargers are 4-4-1 ATS this season while the Jets are 2-7. Joe Flacco is making another start this week, although I am not sure that changes too much. Also if Joey Bosa can't return, I question the Chargers defense in this one. I actually want to look at the over here with the Chargers putting up points but with Perriman, Mims, and Crowder all back that is a decent receiving core to at least put some points up.

NFL Week 11 FAQ

How Can I Bet On Football?

If you are a resident within one of these states: NY, NJ, PA, NH, PA, RI, WV, OR, IN, IA, NV, AR, DE, MS, NM, you can legally bet on the NFL. Sportsbooks are available, and some of them also offer mobile betting.

What Are Opening Lines?

Opening lines are the very first lines put out to the public by oddsmakers. They are put out early, and then adjustments will be made. Getting in on opening lines is where bettors can have an advantage before the lines change.

When Does Week 11 Start?

Week 11 starts on November 19th, 2020. We have a divisional matchup between the Seahawks and the Cardinals. This projects to be the highest scoring game of the week and was a battle last matchup.

What Is A Game Total?

A total set for a game is the set number. You can bet the over or under on for total points. If a game is set at 54.5, you can bet either over or under the total combined points between the two teams.

Why Do Lines Change?

Lines can change for various reasons. If there is an injury leading up to the game that has a major effect on the potential outcome, the line will adjust based on the news. Weather is another reason why it can change.

Who Is The Biggest Favorite Of Week 11?

The Steelers play the Jaguars this week and are -10 favorites. They are the largest spread of the week which makes the most sense given the Steelers are 9-0 and the Jaguars are -18.



Comments
No comments.