NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
While Week 1 of the NFL season was awesome, we’re looking forward and gearing up for Week 2.
It’s a slightly less enticing slate, filled with a lot of divisional matchups. However, there’s still tons of value to be found, and I’ve identified five bets that provide value.
I’m capping the entire slate in this article, providing an angle on two Sunday day games, one on a Sunday afternoon game, one on the Sunday Night Football game, and one on the Monday Night Football game.
So, read on and check out my five best bets for this week’s action:
New England Patriots/New York Jets Under 42.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
- 1:00 p.m. Sunday
- MetLife Stadium, Rutherford, NJ
Zach Wilson finished strong in his NFL debut, but there’s no reason to be confident in this offense. The loss of LT Mekhi Becton, who’s out for four to six weeks, is a massive loss for an offensive line that already lacks depth. The Jets OL currently ranks 30th in adjusted line yards following Week 1.
Now, the Jets get to face a Patriots defense that is a huge step up in talent from Carolina.
And while Mac Jones and the Patriots passing attack looked great, Bill Belichick knows he doesn’t have to light up the scoreboard to beat the Jets. Plus, being the defense-first team that New England is, the Patriots are 27-13 to the under on the road since 2016.
During that stretch, the Patriots and Jets went 4-1 to the under in their five meetings. I like them to play another low-scoring battle Sunday.
Buffalo Bills -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins (-110 on DraftKings)
- 1:00 p.m. Sunday
- Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
This is a “Buy low, Sell high” spot for both teams.
The Bills were embarrassed in Week 1. But the Steelers defense is legit, and the Bills offense came out flat. Not to mention that they had a blocked punt inside their own 20 which the Steelers returned for a touchdown and essentially ended the game.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins were victorious in their Week 1 matchup when they absolutely shouldn’t have been. The Dolphins were outclassed in every aspect of that matchup, and the Patriots self-inflicted penalties and turnovers basically gave the game away. The Dolphins turnover luck never ends…
However, both results provide a good angle for us bettors. The Dolphins should be downgraded after their Week 1 performance and are overvalued here, while the Bills are still very talented, certainly undervalued, and should bounce-back in a big way.
I like the Bills to win, cover, and even their season record.
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-115 on BetMGM)
- 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Both these teams impressed in Week 1. But the Cowboys simply impressed more.
Tampa Bay has perhaps the best defense in the NFL, and their pass rush is second to none. However, Dak Prescott and Co. threw the ball all over the field on the Bucs, as he compiled over 400 yards while completing passes to eight different receivers.
Now, Prescott gets to face a Chargers defense that ranks 16th in Pass Defense DVOA following Week 1. The Chargers have some solid defensive pieces, but the full picture isn’t quite there in the secondary.
Justin Herbert was impressive again against Washington’s stifling defense. But the Washington pass rush wasn’t quite as effective as it normally was, and while Herbert had all the time in the world to throw the ball, he still managed just 20 points.
This is going to be a high-flying, super entertaining matchup, and I don’t expect either defense to make many stops. However, I think Prescott and the Cowboys have a slight edge over the Chargers here.
Plus, I’ll happily take more than a field goal after the Chargers played in nine one-score affairs last season. Give me Dallas at +3 or better.
Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens (-105 on DraftKings)
- 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
The Ravens normally stifling defense got absolutely shredded by Derek Carr and a weakened Raiders offensive line. The Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale ran blitz after blitz against Derek Carr, and it did not work. Carr passed for 435 yards in total.
Now, Martindale is getting ready to dial up more blitzes against Patrick Mahomes, something that is sure to turn out poorly. Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL under pressure, and with his array of weapons, someone is sure to be open on every play.
The Chiefs offense is going to light up the Ravens on national television. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s counter-attack – their only hope – is plagued by injuries. Plus, their X-factor looked far from perfect in Week 1, as Lamar Jackson completed just 19 of his 30 attempts and fumbled the ball three times.
But to put things in simpler terms: We’re getting September Mahomes at just over a field goal.Mahomes is not just 11-0 striaght up (SU) in September, he’s also 8-3 against the spread (ATS) while covering by an average margin of 5.9 points.
This is a “Don’t think, just go” bet. Take Mahomes and the Chiefs to dominate the Ravens on Sunday night in Baltimore.
Monday Night Football: Green Bay Packers -11.5 vs. Detroit Lions (-105 on FanDuel)
- 8:15 p.m. Monday
- Ford Field, Detroit, MI
The football world is currently enamored with two things from Week 1: Aaron Rodgers’ pathetic performance, and the Lions loveable late-game comeback.
However, we’re forgetting two things: The Packers are a great football team, and the Lions are objectively terrible.
Detroit was getting dominated in every facet of their Week 1 game. However, following a couple of lucky turnovers and a lucky onside kick, Jared Goff was able to put up garbage time points against a defense that took their foot off the pedal.
Detroit’s performance is not repeatable. Meanwhile, neither is Green Bay’s, who faced a talented Sean Payton-led team and can easily bounce back against this horrendous Dan Campbell-led one.
In this matchup, the Packers are undervalued, the Lions are overvalued, and both teams are sure to regress to the mean. I think the Packers blow out the Lions on Monday Night, and I’d make this line more like -13.5 or -14.
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