NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
We are looking ahead at week 17, to find the elite matchups for wide receivers against corners. Using Pro Football Focus's ratings as a base, we are able to get an advanced look at what matchups we can take advantage of. Defense against opposing WR's is grabbed from FootballOutsiders. They matchups are broken down into the top tier matchups, middle tier matchups, and matchups to fade. Now the opposing cornerback may not always be on the highlighted receiver, but this is a look at who the highlighted receiver will likely see most of the game. Not every number one cornerback covers the opposing team's wide receiver. They usually stay on their side of the field, and on occasion can shadow a number one. I will continue to edit it during the week, if there is given news of a switch in matchups.
Top Tier Matchups
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
Michael Floyd | B | $5,200 | $6,500 | DeShawn Shead | F | B+ |
Larry Fitzgerald | A- | $6,600 | $7,400 | Jeremy Lane | F | A+ |
Julio Jones | A+ | $8,500 | $9,300 | Brandon Browner/Delvin Breaux | F/B | A |
Calvin Johnson | B+ | $6,900 | $7,900 | Tracy Porter | D- | A- |
James Jones | C- | $3,800 | $5,500 | Xavier Rhodes | F | B |
T.Y. Hilton | B | $5,600 | $6,500 | B.W. Webb | F | A- |
DeAndre Hopkins | A- | $8,400 | $9,000 | Davon House | C | B+ |
Odell Beckham Jr. | A- | $9,000 | $8,900 | E.J. Biggers | F | A+ |
Eric Decker | B | $6,500 | $7,400 | Nickell Roby | F | A |
Brandon Marshall | B | $7,900 | $8,600 | Leodis Mckelvin | F | A |
Antonio Brown | A+ | $9,300 | $9,100 | Tramon Williams | C | A- |
Doug Baldwin | B+ | $6,700 | $7,400 | Jerraud Powers | F | A |
A.J. Green | A | $7,500 | $8,400 | Jimmy Smith | F | A |
Michael Floyd - Arizona went into Seattle earlier this season, and dropped 39 points on them. Michael Floyd posted a 7-113-2 line in that game, and is going to get one of two elite matchups for the Arizona receiving core. He will see DeShawn Shead, who posts a 40 coverage grade, per PFF. Floyd is your 17th ranked wideout, in a highly potent offense.
Larry Fitzgerald - Fitz caught ten balls for 130 yards in the first matchup with Seattle. Fitz has a three inch height advantage on Jeremy Lane, who has a 49 coverage grade. With John Brown seeing Richard Sherman, Fitz and Floyd should see a bulk of the targets.
Julio Jones - This is the first of the big wideouts in great spots this week. Jones was shadowed by Delvin Breaux 35 of 48 routes in the prior meeting, but also will see some Brandon Browner. Either way I love Jones against a horrendous defense.
Calvin Johnson - The biggest game of the season came against Chicago, as Calvin Johnson posted a 6-166-1 line. He was shadowed by Tracy Porter, 30 of 52 routes, who Johnson has a six inch height advantage over. Targets are always the issue with him, but the matchup is there again this week.
James Jones - The only receiver that seems to at least be somewhat on the same page with Aaron Rodgers, is James Jones. Xavier Rhodes will shadow James Jones, who torched Minnesota for a 6-109-1 line. Rhodes has a 49 coverage grade, and price considered, Jones is worth a look for a punt WR play with plenty of upside.
DeAndre Hopkins - In their prior meeting, Hopkins torched Davon House. Hopkins finished the day with a 10-148-2 line. House shadowed Hopkins on 39 of 41 routes, and is expected to yet again. If you want to make a contrarian pivot, Hopkins would be the guy to do so with.
T.Y. Hilton - Well nobody is going to play Hilton this week, given that Jim Irsay might be lining up under center. Hilton has a great matchup against B.W. Webb. Of course the bigger issue is who's throwing to him.
Odell Beckham Jr. - The Giants' offense was suspended last week, but now will face a decimated Eagles' secondary. With Byron Maxwell done for the season, he will likely draw E.J. Biggers, who has an F coverage grade. I believe Beckham will be the lesser owned of Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown.
Brandon Marshall - I was wrong about Brandon Marshall last week, and fading him was a bad choice. *Will Ferrell Voice* Buffalo's secondary is a bit battered, and Marshall will matchup with Leodis McKelvin. Marshall has a five inch size advantage, which Marshall usually towers over opposing CB's anyway.
Eric Decker - His teammate Eric Decker is always in a good spot, who had a big game against Buffalo last time out. He finished the day with a 6-85-1 line, and will draw Nickell Roby, an F coverage corner. Decker also has a big size advantage. (Six inches)
Antonio Brown - He disappointed big time in week 16, and he did not when he last played Cleveland. This passing attack shredded Cleveland, and Brown finished with a 10-139-2 line. Pittsburgh needs a win, and you have to think they will not duplicate last week's results. Another great matchup for Brown.
Doug Baldwin - He keeps scoring touchdowns, and his second half has been phenomenal. He had a 7-134-1 line against Arizona, and will see Jerraud Powers. He is the only Seattle wideout I would trust, not only because of recent stats, but because of the matchup. You will see why below.
A.J. Green - Cincinnati is dealing with a QB issue of their own, and this is not an injury article, it is a matchup article. Green was shadowed by Jimmy Smith 38 of 41 routes last time out, when he dropped a 10-227-2 line. Smith among the bottom of the barrel in coverage grades.
Middle Tier Matchups
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
Martavis Bryant | C- | $5,300 | $7,100 | Charles Gains | F | C+ |
Michael Crabtree | C+ | $5,900 | $6,600 | Marcus Peters | C | C |
Willie Snead | B- | $4,400 | $6,300 | Robert Alford | C+ | C |
Jeremy Maclin | B | $6,400 | $7,100 | David Amerson | B- | C- |
Allen Hurns | B | $5,600 | $7,300 | Kareem Jackson | D+ | B- |
Martavis Bryant - You can look at this matchup as an "upper tier" of the middle tier matchups. Still analyzing who he will see, but could be Charles Gains. Bryant had a 6-178-1 line against Cleveland. Hope you had the Pittsburgh stack that weekend. Bryant goes missing from time-to-time, but for $5,300 on DraftKings, he is definitely worth a look.
Michael Crabtree - The Oakland passing attack is always capable of breaking out, but Kansas City is not the team they were in the first half of the season. Marcus Peters is a slightly above average coverage corner, and this matchup is somewhat of a push.
Willie Snead - Willie Snead will draw the easier of the matchups in this game, as he will see Robert Alford. He is an average coverage corner, with a 76 coverage grade. Snead could be a sneaky play, especially if this one turns into a shootout.
Jeremy Maclin - In the midst of Maclin's successful 2nd half, he posted a 6-95-2 line against Oakland a few weeks ago. David Amerson has improved as the seasons gone on, entering the week with an 82 coverage grade. This is another push for me, but I will definitely lean towards Maclin's way.
Allen Hurns - Allen Robinson will deal wth Jonathan Joseph, while Hurns deals with Kareem Jackson. He is a subpar coverage corner, but not awful. Hurns is rated as the 15th best wideout, per PFF. The Jags' passing attack is always high volume (garbage time), so they will get theirs.
Tough Matchups
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
John Brown | B | $5,100 | $6,500 | Richard Sherman | B+ | D |
Demaryius Thomas | C+ | $6,700 | $7,700 | Jason Verett | B | C- |
Jarvis Landry | B | $6,600 | $7,200 | Malcolm Butler | B | C |
Brandin Cooks | C+ | $6,400 | $7,600 | Desmond Trufant | B- | C- |
San Diego Receivers | C- | - | - | Denver Corners | B | D- |
Tyler Lockett | C+ | $4,400 | $5,900 | Patrick Peterson | B+ | F |
Mike Evans | B | $7,300 | $8,000 | Josh Norman | B+ | F |
Allen Robinson | B+ | $7,800 | $8,500 | Jonathan Joseph | B+ | C- |
Sammy Watkins | B | $6,700 | $7,800 | Darrelle Revis | C+ | C |
John Brown - I talked about Sherman being on Brown earlier, keeping me away from him. For a similar price, Floyd is an easy pivot if you want exposure to this matchup. There are also too many options in this Cardinals' for me to like Brown this week.
Demaryius Thomas - About the only worthwhile defensive player on San Diego, is Jason Verett. He bounced back and forth between Emmanuel Sanders, and Thomas, so he will see some of him. Verett is the 7th rated corner, per PFF. We have seen very little upside in Denver's passing game lately, and a very inconsistent floor. There are better options.
Jarvis Landry - In the first matchup, Malcolm Butler shadowed Landry on 32 of 43 routes, including when he lined up in the slot. He posted just six catches, for 71 yards. Hard for me to like Landry this week, but with his PPR appeal, he is a tournament play on DK.
Brandin Cooks - Brandin Cooks will draw a matchup with Desmond Trufant, who is a top 20 corner. Cooks is not completely off my radar, due to the possibility of a shootout. Cooks posted just a 4-41-0 line against Atlanta earlier this season. Not my first option to pair with Brees, but a contrarian one.
San Diego Receivers - I will save you some time here, San Diego scored three points against Denver at home last game. They head into Denver this week, who still have something to play for. No value here.
Tyler Lockett - Patrick Peterson will see Tyler Lockett this week. Peterson has an 87 coverage grade, to Lockett's 79 receiving grade. I can't see this one going Lockett's way.
Mike Evans - Josh Norman covered Vincent Jackson last time out, but with V-Jax injured, Evans will draw Norman. Carolina's defense has been a little hit and miss recently, but at Evan's price there is no reason to put him in your lineups.
Allen Robinson - A-Rob will draw Jonathan Joseph, who has an 89 coverage grade. He is rated as the 10th best corner. I am on the fence about A-Rob being an elite wideout, because he is more than capable of dropping a similar line to their last matchup. (6-86-1)
Sammy Watkins - Sammy Watkins will see Darrelle Revis, who has lost a step, but still not a guy I like to pick on. Watkins was held to just three catches last time out, accounting for 14 yards. Watkins' price tag has risen, so I will stay away in the Bills' "Super Bowl"
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