NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
We are looking ahead at the wild card round to find the elite matchups for wide receivers against corners. Using Pro Football Focus's ratings as a base, we are able to get an advanced look at what matchups we can take advantage of. Defense against opposing WR's is grabbed from FootballOutsiders. They matchups are broken down into the top tier matchups, middle tier matchups, and matchups to fade. Now the opposing cornerback may not always be on the highlighted receiver, but this is a look at who the highlighted receiver will likely see most of the game. Not every number one cornerback covers the opposing team's wide receiver. They usually stay on their side of the field, and on occasion can shadow a number one. I will continue to edit it during the week, if there is given news of a switch in matchups.
Top Tier Matchups
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
A.J Green | A | $7,500 | $8,300 | Ross Cockrell | B | B- |
James Jones | C+ | $4,100 | $5,700 | Quinton Dunbar | D | B- |
Stefon Diggs | B- | $4,300 | $5,800 | Deshawn Shead | F | A |
Martavis Bryant | C- | $5,600 | $6,900 | Dre Kirkpatrick | F- | B- |
A.J. Green - If you have looked at the prior games against Pittsburgh already, you probably have A.J. Green already in your lineups. In two games, he has combined for a 17-250-2 line. He has six career touchdowns in ten games versus Pittsburgh. They rank 27th against opposing WR1 this season, per Football Outsiders. Despite the B coverage grade for Ross Cockrell, this is an elite matchup for Green.
James Jones - The only Green Bay wideout on page with Aaron Rodgers at the moment is one of the cheaper wide receivers of the weekend. James Jones is one of my favorite value plays for this round. He will draw Quinton Dunbar, one of the less threatening corners in Washington. Washington rank in the bottom five against opposing WR1 and WR2. Whichever you want to refer Jones as, he is in a good spot.
Stefon Diggs - Most of us are writing off Minnesota, and the 38-7 pounding they took already this season by Seattle, it makes sense. I don't believe Minnesota is going to be able to play a ground-and-pound game this week, which hurts them. Teddy Bridgewater might have to throw more than usual, and if you want to take a shot on a low-owned player in a good one-on-one matchup, it's Diggs.
Martavis Bryant - As potent as the Steelers' passing game is, it has been held in check twice by Cincinnati this season. Out of the one-on-one matchups in this game, Bryant has the best. He will draw Dre Kirkpatrick, while Antonio Brown will see Adam Jones. Kirkpatrick has a poor 41 coverage grade. Cincinnati ranks 17th against opposing WR2.
Middle Tier Matchups
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
Antonio Brown | A+ | $9,600 | $9,500 | Adam Jones | B+ | C |
Randall Cobb | C- | $5,800 | $6,500 | Will Blackmon | C- | C |
DeAndre Hopkins | A- | $8,400 | $8,800 | Sean Smith | B- | C+ |
DeSean Jackson | B- | $4,500 | $7,000 | Damarious Randall | C- | B- |
Marvin Jones | B- | $3,700 | $5,500 | William Gay | C+ | C |
Jeremy Maclin | B | $6,400 | $7,200 | Kareem Jackson | C | B- |
Doug Baldwin | B+ | $6,700 | $7,300 | Captain Munnerlyn | B | C |
Tyler Lockett | C+ | $4,400 | $6,200 | Terrence Newman | C- | C+ |
Pierre Garcon | C+ | $4,200 | $6,300 | Sam Shields | B- | C- |
Markus Wheaton | C+ | $4,000 | $5,900 | Leon Hall | C+ | C |
Antonio Brown - Adam Jones is one of the better corners in the game, while Brown is the best receiver. This matchup did not happen in the last game, yet Brown did not exploit it. In fact he has only broken 100 yards twice in 11 career games against Cincinnati. But with likely no DeAngelo Williams, the passing game will be in full force, with many of the targets going to Brown. Tough matchup, but still hard to fade Brown.
Randall Cobb - This Packers' offense is a mess, but all of that aside, Randall Cobb will have an average matchup out of the slot. The Blackmon-Cobb matchup is a push, both have been slightly below average this season. As noted above with Jones, Washington ranks in the bottom five against opposing WR1 and WR2.
DeAndre Hopkins - The times we picked on Kansas City's secondary seems like a long time ago, and that is because things have changed. KC has the 5th ranked passing defense, according to Football Outsiders. Now Hopkins posted a 9-98-2 line in week 1 against the Chiefs. With Hopkins' skill, I still will take an elite wideout over an above average corner.
DeSean Jackson - Kirk Cousins will get his time to shine, but will face a top ten passing defense. DeSean Jackson is a home run threat type of wideout, and has four touchdowns in the last six games. Pierre Garcon will see a tougher matchup, while Jackson will see Randall, a subpar corner. Jackson is definitely worth a look this weekend.
Marvin Jones - Pittsburgh has an average passing defense, and call me crazy, but a Bengals' passing attack could pay off big. Jones' matchup with William Gay is a tossup, not favoring either. Pittsburgh ranks 23rd against opposing WR2.
Jeremy Maclin - I am going to eying this possible matchup over the next few days, because if everything lines up, Maclin will see Kareem Jackson. This is a better matchup for Maclin, than facing Jonathan Joseph. However, I doubt Houston will waste Joseph on a wideout like Chris Conley. Expect Maclin to see a little of both this week, putting him in this tier.
Doug Baldwin - The magical season of Doug Baldwin could continue again this week. He posted two scores against Minnesota earlier this season, and about 40 touchdowns after that game. I do believe Minnesota's defense can shut opponents down, but this is not a matchup to keep me off of the Seattle passing attack. The Captain has been superb for Minnesota this season, but I will give a small edge to Baldwin.
Tyler Lockett - Terrance Newman has an average coverage grade of 71, while Lockett has surprised this season. He just missed out on a B receiving grade. He had a 7-90-0 line against Minnesota earlier this season. Minnesota ranks 25th against opposing WR2.
Pierre Garcon - Sam Shields will draw Pierre Garcon, who gives Garcon the tougher matchup on the Washington side. Garcon finished with the season with a touchdown in the last three games. His upside has been capped this season so I doubt he will be on any tournament winning rosters this week.
Markus Wheaton - Wheaton has floated around the 4-60-1 mark the last few weeks of the season, and will have a push matchup with slot-corner, Leon Hall. I still believe many will overlook what average/poor matchups the Steelers wideouts have, but I think volume carries them to solid fantasy days.
Tough Matchups
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
Davante Adams | F | $3,400 | $5,300 | Bashaud Breeland | B- | F |
Cecil Shorts | D+ | $3,300 | $5,200 | Ron Parker | C+ | D- |
Mike Wallace | F | $3,400 | $4,700 | Richard Sherman | B+ | F- |
Nate Washington | D+ | $3,600 | $5,300 | Marcus Peters | C | D |
Davante Adams - Not sure you were going to play him anyway, but a matchup with Bashaud Breeland should keep you totally off of him. Breeland has boasted an above average coverage grade over the second half of the season. Adams, has been well, the complete opposite.
Cecil Shorts - I will be sticking with Hopkins if I am taking anyone from this Houston passing attack. Shorts has four targets combined in the last two weeks, and faces a slightly above average slot corner. I expect this game to be a field goal fest, with the occasional touchdown.
Mike Wallace - Once again, I doubt you were playing this guy, but if you wanted to be different, don't. Richard Sherman will be on Wallace this week.
Nate Washington - *See Shorts above.
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