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Brief Summary (6:30 PM EDT update):
PPD Risk: MIN (15%)
Delay Risk: MIN (35%) TEX (30%), STL (20%), BAL (15%)
Forecasting Analysis
Current radar overview
NYY at BAL and MIL at PHL
Current radar near the region:
Things have cleared out nicely in Baltimore. Here is the simulated radar for near 1st pitch:
I circled the ballparks in both Philly and Baltimore.
BAL and PHL should be OK. VERY LOW CHANCE OF PPD; LOW CHANCE OF A DELAY
WSH at CIN
The region should start dry but some rain will approach and then move in as the game goes on. By 9 PM the simulated radar looks like this:
So the game starts dry and now it looks like it should stay dry. Seems like I have bigger fish to fry this evening. VERY LOW CHANCE OF A PPD OR OF ANY TYPE OF DELAY(S)
SEA at TEX
Will see more rain today and this evening. This is the last thing the state needs. Current radar:
Not too bad right now. Here is the simulated radar for near the time of scheduled 1st pitch:
And 9 PM:
.
I am much more optimistic about this game. Models and radar agree that most of the activity should be east of the stadium. An in-game delay risk as there will be a few tstorms around but not too worrisome.LOW CHANCE OF PPD/LOW TO MAYBE MODERATE CHANCE OF ANY TYPE OF DELAY(S)
TB at MIN
Current radar:
Notice the nice "dry" slot near MIN. That is a really good sign for them.
Here is the simulated radar for 8 PM:
And 9 PM:
Even though the Twin Cities are generally dry in the models in this time period, there is too much rain around not to be nervous about this game. But the current radar makes me feel optimistic. LOW RISK OF PPD/LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF DELAY(S)
SF at STL
Last game with a PPD or delay risk.
Current radar:
A light but steady rain is nearby.
By 8 PM:
I am more optimistic about this game now as the rain is really light and the models are expecting the rain to leave by 1st pitch. LOW RISK OF A PPD OR ANY TYPE OF DELAY(S)