Today's college slate is truly all about road teams getting a reality check. Typically in an early NCAAB season, teams will schedule quite a few cupcake matches to get themselves acclimated and ready for conference play in early January. Around this time though, is when teams good teams start to expose themselves to some tougher road match-ups. All the match-ups on Fanduel's early slate include tough road match-ups for all six teams, some of which is their first true road game of the young season. You'll come to see that I rarely love players on the road in NCAAB, as targeting players in these situations over the long haul is not exactly a cash machine. In this article, I'll break down each game with my likes and dislikes from each. This is not typically how I will be doing these articles, as I know this can be a bit overwhelming. Since this is the first article I'm doing though, I wanted to present you guys with a lot of information.
UConn vs. Ohio State. Projected Score UConn 72 Ohio state 64
Kenpom.com is the best tool for NCAAB, and will provide you with score projections and more far before the Vegas line even comes out for games. This is certainly a good tool to have for about $20 for the year. Most of my projections will come straight from that website for totals. Both of these teams are allowing about 65 points per game, but UConn has played far better talent to start the year and holds a better record. UConn is better offensively and defensively, and Ohio State coming off a few high scoring wins has their entire team over-priced on Fanduel. Also, add in the fact that this is the Buckeyes first road game and this could wind up being real sloppy for them. Daniel Hamilton is a stud for UConn and a do it all type of player. He pokes holes all over a box score and while he is priced high I see him making value at the 9200 price tag. Typically you're looking for 4x value from players, as this will land you at a score of 240 on Fanduel. 240 will cash you most/all 50/50s and should cash you money in tournaments as well. Hamilton needs 36.8 fps which I feel he comes through in this spot. His ability to fill it up all over leaves his floor low and ceiling high. I also like Brimah at his price (6000) as last year he was typically a 7-8K range player. His block upside is tremendous and while his limited minutes is an issue, he produces when on the floor.
Wisconsin vs. Marquette. Projected Score Wisconsin 72 Marquette 64
Henry Ellison on Marquette will be the best player on the court in this game; however I will be fading in this spot. For one thing, I do not like taking a player traveling on the road off a ceiling type game at home. This is for a few reasons, but the number one is because player off huge home games become the focal point of a defense when traveling on the road. Ellison has great numbers and will be high owned, but I will be off him. This will be arguably the best defense Marquette has faced this year, and I like Wisconsin to bounce back here off a tough home loss. Due to adjust pace of play and Marquette coming off some high scoring wins; leave their entire team overpriced in the match-up. One of their guys may hit value and if I had to pick one it would be Traci Carter just because of usage, but I'm not going to play musical chairs trying to figure out which guys comes through in a tough road match-up. On the other side of the ball Hayes (8700) is a must play in my opinion. Wisconsin runs so thin that I have no issue with any of the starting five going into your lineups, but Hayes is their best player and will have himself a game. Marquette is just overrated defensively and the Wisconsin starting five will exploit. Vito Brown at 5200 is stealing as well. He's coming off a floor type game and I really like his chances to bounce back in this spot, but again I am fine with any Wisconsin starter going in your lineup.
Butler vs. Tennessee Projected Score Butler 84 Tennessee 73
This game has the highest total projection of the entire slate, but I am honestly not in love with many options here. As high as this total is, both teams are actually projected about 8 points off their season average. While both of these defenses are poor, a lot of the top options are priced very high. Tennessee's top scorer Kevin Punter has been on fire this season, but in the one true road game he had all year, he did not play well at all. I think this is a good down to earth game for punter as his price has climbed to above where I'm comfortable. Armani Moore is way overpriced due to his inconsistent scoring. This offense just has a lot of mouths to feed, and I don't like this spot for them to produce at their current prices. I'll do a complete pass on Tennessee here. From the Butler end, my favorite play for the price is Andrew Chrabascz. While he doesn't have great game logs over his last few, his price is down from what it should be. A big man who takes a few threes a game will have his opportunities today to fill it up as points will be of plenty to Butler. Tennessee sits at 231 nationally in points against and travels on the road to play the best team they have all season. I'm also a fan of Dunham as well, and don't mind Roosevelt Jones, but Chrabascz is my guys for the price.
Arizona St. vs. Kentucky. Projected Score Kentucky 77 Arizona St. 65
While the prices of Arizona St. players actually aren't bad, there is typically a golden rule for a few teams in CBB that you do not target. One of those teams is the Wildcats. Kentucky as always is a fairly disciplined bunch that doesn't let good players get the best of them. Arizona State has a few good players, but will certainly be off their season pace of 75+ today. I'll stay away from them in this one. From Kentucky's side outside of Tyler Ulis, no one here is really in play for me. I don't love the Ulis play either as Kentucky is just so talented that any one of these guys can go off. Since they are all priced right, I'll be avoiding this game completely. For a GPP play, you can mess around with a few different players in lineups, but I will be keeping these guys out of my cash lineups.
Wichita State vs Utah. Projected Score Wichita State 71 Utah 68
Utah is seeing a serious spot reduction on their season total in this one. Wichita State will slow this game down today and it will impact of the DFS's best in Jacob Poeltl of Utah. A model citizen of consistency going for over 41 fps in his last four, but will be facing his toughest match-up yet. From Utah's side I only like Brandon Taylor who has gotten off to a slow start this year, and his price has taken a hit because of it. He is 5K and should see a lot of run today with a tight game expected. He is Utah's leading assist guy and this price is too cheap for him, as he is a better scorer than his 6.9 points per game says he is. The other Utah starters are a bit out of my comfortable price range today. On the Wichita State side, they will be seeing a bump in play due to Utah's pace, but it's tough to love anyone of these guys at their prices. Fred Van Fleet's price is nice, but he just fully returned from a hamstring injury and I wonder how much it is still bothering him. The best value play in my eyes on Wichita State is Zach Brown at 4800. Been scoring much better lately and contributes slightly in all categories. He has been seeing more minutes recently as well, but his Fanduel price has not moved up as it should have. Other Wichita State guys are tough plays in my opinion.
California vs. St. Mary's. Projected Score California 73 St. Mary's 68
St. Mary's is in for their toughest game of the year thus far and this is just another scenario where a team is coming off a few high scoring wins travels on the road in a tough match-up. Emmett Naar and Joe Rahon are the two engines that make the Gaels go, but their price scares me in this spot. The minutes will be there and their floors are high, but the ceiling is low, and it's tough to run them out today. The only player I like for the price is Calvin Hermanson. Getting 20+ minutes in five straight and contributing in various ways on the box score, I like his chances for value at 4800. I also don't mind Jock Landale at 4900, but the lack of minutes is a bit scary. On the California side, it's all about Tyrone Wallace. Some thought he may take a backseat to the young freshmen that were brought in this year, but it's actually made him a lot better. Wallace is my favorite option on this entire slate. His overall numbers have improved to start the year. The only other option I like on California is Jabari Bird. He is priced too low in this spot and value is there at 5400.
