Does Anyone Use Red Zone Opportunities vs Opponents Red Zone TD's Allowed?

So I'm sure this has been explored before but after striking out on some players the last few weeks Colossus has suggested, I'm going to try something new for me and was wondering what you guys thought about this. Granted Colossus did work ok last week I went 14/21 in my H2H and was in the money 4/7 in GPP, I feel that something is missing. Since touchdowns count for more points than anything else and its kind of hard to predict who is going to get a 70 yard touchdown run or pass, wouldn't it make more sense to look for high usage players whose team is in the top third or so of the league in red zone opportunities per game matched up against a team who allows more touchdowns than field goals in the red zone. This is purely theoretical and I'm sure there are instances where this would apply and instances where the game script is completly different from what people thought and this idea does not apply. It might seem kind of stupid but I'm a noob so go easy on me.

For example, according to teamrankings.com the Chargers average 3.5 red zone scoring opportunities per game this year. They are matched up against the Steelers this week who when allowing a red zone score, 64% of the time it will be a touchdown. Pair that with the fact that tight ends have done well against the Steelers this year and it would seem that Antonio Gates should have a fair share of red zone targets this week, and factor in the fact that Steve Johnson and Jacoby Jones are questionable, it seems like more likely than not he will have a touchdown reception.

Similar situation with the Chiefs. They play the Bears in Kansas City this week. The Chiefs are also averaging 3.5 red zone opportunities this week and the Bears when allowing scores in the red zone, allow a touchdown about 70% of the time. Considering the Chiefs don't really throw touchdowns to wide recievers and Jamaal Charles is a high usage back that can both run and catch making him somewhat matchup proof, I don't think it will be quite a shock if he has a two touchdown game.

Also the Falcons average 3.8 red zone opportunities per game. The Texans when giving up a red zone score give up a touchdown 70% of the time. Despite Houston coming into that game with a lower touchdown % maybe 50-60%, It gave better indication that someone might have a multi-touchdown game (Freeman).

I understand even with a touchdown a player might still have a relatively low fantasy point output if they lack the yards, but wouldn't it be smarter to get a player who gets in the red zone and goes against a bed red zone defense? When everyone was saying to take Karlos Williams last week (which I did) I never considered the fact that the Bills average around 2.5 red zone scoring oportunities per game (entering that game) while the Giants when giving up red zone scores allow a touchdown 50% of the time. Despite the value that everyone placed on Williams, the statistics show that more likely than not he will not have a rushing red zone touchdown. Despite him catching a pass outside the red zone for a touchdown which was caused by a change in the predicted game script, he didn't rush for a touchdown.

This could all be complete B.S. which it more than likely is but it's something I want to test out this weekend, so we'll see how it goes. Any thoughts on this?

I would be interested to know how it goes. The hardest thing to predict is touchdowns but I do look at which players get red zone carries and targets. That stat alone will give you a better idea of who has a higher likely hood to be in position to score. I personally have never brought it to the level you are in looking at the opposing defense red zone percentages.

I agree that looking at RZ carries and targets is useful, but I feel that it doesn't exactly help you as much as you think it does. The problem I see with it is whether high RZ carries or targets is caused by having lots of opportunities in the RZ (ability to move the ball down the field), by situation plays like picking up a key first down in the RZ, or just volume caused by offensive inefficiency (also can be considered defensive RZ efficiency). This way a running back might get 5 or 6 carries in the red zone every week but looking at that stat alone doesn't tell you if that player was stuffed at the goal line several times or if he was used to pick up a first down while in the RZ.

I just think it makes more sense to look at RZ opportunities to hedge against the chance of inefficiency. I mean if a running back is gonna be inefficient in the RZ, he might as well have more chances to be inefficient and just maybe he might sneak in a touchdown.

I'd be interested to hear how you are using Colossus. Did you make customizations to projections and utilize the stats to find players you like? Did you build stacks?

I think the strongest indicator you can find for predicting touchdowns, RZ efficiency, etc. are Vegas NFL Prop bets. You can do years of analysis on RZ targets, touches, opportunities and won't be more accurate than Vegas. The issue with Vegas props is they come out late on Sunday. However, what I would suggest is using the Vegas NFL props bet data as a baseline and run your analysis and/or further adjustments on that data. We do have a NFL Props tool in the dev queue. Hopefully, we can get to it later in the season.

To be honest up I've been playing fantasy football for a while now but recently started DFS again after a failed attempt last year, so I'm still inexperienced here compared to everyone else. Until yesterday I was just getting rid of the low scoring games when setting up Colossus and changing some of the exposures and locking in a player or two I thought might do well based on everything I've read, but that's about it, no fancy algorithms or anything like that. This is just an idea that came to me last night that I wanted to explore and get some opinions on.

As for the player props, I really don't like the fact they come out so late. It doesn't give me that much time to mess around with lineups and figure out what I like most. I am more likely to focus on the spread and over under this week when I apply this idea.

This is kind of confusing to understand, but I see this as a more of a tool for finding RZ Potential Touchdowns. Essentially all I'm finding is the weighted average number of RZ touchdowns a team can score based on how many times they get to the RZ and defensive RZ scoring distribution. This is also assuming they score on every possession (which is far from reality), but i would rather take players from a team that gets into the RZ more often than not.

As Sam noted, props are huge. But as you noted, they come out late and that doesn't leave a ton of wiggle room for messing around with rosters. The problem with analyzing red zone attempts and success/failure rates right now is that the sample sizes are tiny. You highlighted the Chiefs, and I'd take their numbers with a grain of salt since some of that red zone scoring came in a game the Packers raced out to a monster lead. The premise is good, and it's worth exploring, but it's going to take some deep digging and an understanding that a red zone trip in a tie game or close game is probably quite a bit different than a red zone trip in a four score game in the fourth quarter. Hopefully the point I'm trying to make makes sense, if not, I'll be happy to try to explain a little differently.

Josh, that's another factor I was thinking about as well. I mean any time you have an outlier and a small sample size, its going to skew the data. Unfortunately we can't do anything about sample size, this isn't baseball. And the fact that there are so many other factors such as the opponent, the game script, injuries, weather, etc.. make it that much harder to get a true understanding of a teams performance and make projections less accurate. Despite all these limitations, the idea is still simple though. More RZ opportunities usually means more touchdowns, extra points, and field goals to go around. Yes, these stats don't include passing or rushing touchdowns of 20+ yards, but I would rather bet on a player who gets the opportunity to score multiple touchdowns from the RZ rather than one who I hope will break off for a long touchdown. There will obviously be deviation from the mean RZ scoring opportunities, but I would be more inclined to choose players from a team that already has a high average and shy away from those with a low average (Bills). At this point this is just personal preference for me, I try to be more conservative any time I gamble. But yes, I understand the point you were trying to make.

Don't know if you saw this article but think you'd be interested if you haven't yet.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/54759/260/dominant-red-zone-receivers