How Important Is Wind?

Hi everyone, was just wondering if the projections Colossus uses are adjusted based on weather conditions. I know someone on here mentioned that it might be a good idea to pick up the Eagles defense in a few GPP because of the hurricane vs Kirk Cousins but I was looking at the weather conditions for all the other games and most of them have winds 10-15mph. That includes the Packers vs 49ers, Chiefs vs Bengals, Raiders vs. Chicago. So when Colossus spits out lineups saying that Derek Carr or Andy Dalton are good value picks does it take into account that they may be running the ball more or focusing more on the short passing game hence limiting the production of deep threats such as Amari Cooper and AJ Green? I read one of those fantasy football books from amazon by Jonathan Bales and he basically said that the YPA goes down significantly as the wind increases (which is common sense) but raises the question whether its worth it to stick to low spread games with nice weather for QB's and WR's and go to the windy games for defenses and RB? Any thoughts on this?

It is something to take into consideration, to a certain extent. Looking at the weather for today's games, as of 10 am, wind seems to be kicked up in Washington, hovering around 15 mph with some gusts. The games you mentioned are floating around 7-12 mph, which is not concerning for me. Carolina - Tampa seems to be a bad weather game in the rain, that's where I could see run heavy games.

To answer your question, no Colossus does not take weather into consideration, but Vegas does. You can see the line movements in our tool, and weather could affect a drop. This would be something to note for anytime you see it. You can apply the "Vegas total" model to your optimizer if you are looking to build around high total games.

With Jason here. Once we see 10+ MPH, it can have an affect on the game itself. If you're playing on FanDuel, it makes a lot of sense to fade those kickers in situations where it is windy/wet, etc. As we saw this week, there can be a ridiculously big range from top kicker to worst kicker (27-1 this week).

I read somewhere that 15 mph sustained winds are where performance gets impacted but I got the feeling they were talking strictly about the passing game. I think kickers would be affected more and possibly at a lower wind speed. Don't remember where I saw the article.