Too Many Lineups?

So this is shaping up to be another mediocre week for me and I'm pretty disappointed as I feel there were some pretty obvious plays out there and I had a lot of them, just spread out in WAY too many lineups.

I noticed 1 guy at the top of almost all my tournament entries this week. His screen name was "scout326" and he had a Fantasy Cruncher Ad as his avatar pretty much. He played the same lineup... and entered it more than once, in tournaments all over DK. He was at the top of almost all of them. Now I haven't seen this guy up there before ( I try to take a look at the best lineups each week) so it very well could be just his GIANT score week, but this one big week certainly will pay 1000x the $50-100 of entries he has been putting in every week even if he didn't score at all (unlikely) any other week. In one tournament, the same lineup (all the same players) is placing 2nd and 3rd so far before the MNF game, good for at least 10-15K not including the $100K tourney he is winning and will probably win even with one game to go.

My big mistake this week was basically fading DeAngelo Williams, or taking him out last minute, (once again too many lineups leading to too much fiddling), because I thought he was chalk, and might end up playing like the old mediocre DeAngelo Williams we all know and love! Turns out I was wrong, as he went off again. I was also in some 50/50s with CONDIA, another well known player, and noticed he had different lineups, but a) I don't know how many, and b) it seemed like they were fairly similar, maybe changing a TE here or receiver there. I'll be able to tell better tonight. My question is, how many lineups is too many, and is the best way to diversify to just spread them around to a lot of contests? I find it suspicious that someone would be so confident in their lineup to enter the exact same lineup in the same contest a few times, but it probably happens more than I think. Seems like that is not a good way to diversify with one or just a few lineups either. I know there is no "RIGHT" answer to this question, but I just feel like having 20+ lineups makes keeping track of players who are Questionable harder, and even if you get all of the best players, they are probably going to be spread out so you don't get that 250+ point lineup. I'd rather totally blow a week and then have one week where a great lineup wins me a ton of cash than making $10-20 a week with a ton of lineups or just breaking even. Depending on what happens tonight, I may not even have a bad week but I was just looking for people's thoughts on this as I think its pretty important.

Every one has a different opinion on this. I personally only make one lineup a week but other pros make several. It is personal preference. My suggestion would be if you are going to make multiple line ups then key in on several players you like and build lineups around them. For instance I loved A. Brown this week and Langford. I would have them in most of my lineups and build around them.

I like that approach. Sometimes guys just put up duds and if you only have 1 lineup that might kill you for one week, but at the same time, its one week. And entering it into a lot of different contests helps obviously. I like using lower priced QBs usually, so I think 3-5 might be the sweet spot for me. But I'm definitely going to lower the total number of lineups I've been using. It has worked OK some weeks but I think picking players all over the board and mixing and matching in a ton of lineups is a) time consuming and b) maddening. Unless you have some software or something in excel that does it for you automatically and you have a nice roll to enter a bunch of contests across the board. I think going with a core lineup and maybe switching out a TE here and there might be a good strategy as they are so hit or miss. I went wayyy overboard with Heath Miller this week which unfortunately didn't work out. Thanks for the advice, I think its solid to just go with one lineup, especially if you feel really good about it. Too much tweaking is never a good thing in fantasy but so easy to do.

For 50/50/H2H's, I just use one lineup, and rather live or die by my one cash game lineup. It simplifies the lineup making process, and helps you focus on the best possible options at each position.

As for tournaments, I usually writeup my core of players, much like Zach said, and just mix and match. It has been my personal preference from the start. I had 100% Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffrey, and Antonio Gates this week, and then added the other players I liked to their rosters, just swapping out players.

For cash games, one or maybe two (on rare occasions) lineups is all that I'll enter. I'll also make sure I enter the cash game lineup or lineups in GPPs, even if I'm more concerned with floor with that lineup than I typically am with a strictly GPP roster. That said, if my cash lineup goes nuts and it isn't in a GPP, I'm sure I'd want to get ill. As for GPPs, it really depends on your bankroll. If you're working with a minimal bankroll, I'd advocate streamlining and not going crazy with entering a ton of different lineups. I'd advocate identifying your "core" players and building a few variations around them. Part of my thinking is that if you're entering too many lineups with a minimal bankroll, you're entering lineups with players don't have strong convictions about. And if you're entering lineups with players you don't have strong convictions about, it means they're players you probably don't have big projections for, and you're merely entering those rosters for extra exposure. Obviously, if you have a large bankroll, the more lineups you enter, the wider the net you cast and the greater chance you have of hitting on a successful stack such as Eli/OBJ in Week 8 or Brees/any of his wide outs from that same game.

I'm a one lineup cash game guy. Hate killing my upside with a second lineup personally. If you want to get big exposure at little cost, I'd recommend going with a lot of entries in a small ($2-5) GPP. There is plenty of volatility in the NFL. You can have a guy (McFadden) with a huge yardage game get similar production to Chris Ivory (2 TD) who had 22 yards rushing. Getting exposure to all the pieces you like is key IMO. I struggle with the same thing, but when I roll out multiple cash game lineups, I feel I'm just raising my bottom line while sacrificing upside. Tough middle ground really. Gotta find your niche in the industry. Some have more success with cash games and some enjoy the ups and downs of GPPs. I personally feel like multiple GPP lineups in NFL is the way to go long-term.

@Lox

Im with you this week. I made too many lineups that I felt good about.

Weirdly enough, on Draft Kings I was breaking even for the most part and in some was in the money by quite a bit but I just checked and it looks like Im blanking out on Draft Kings this week....

I had to restart my internet to make sure what I saw was even real. Did everyone literally have the Chargers Def, Bennett and Woodhead? How did I drop in the first quarter by so much....

I have always done better the fewer lineups Ive had and I even told myself this week would be a dangerous week due to how creative you could get (example: I was able to make a lineup with Julio, AJ Green and Odell)

From now on, I will not have more then 2 cash lineups. Unless Gates goes off tonight, this will be a first for me....

@Joshshep and everyone

The thing is I DID have the Eli/OBJ stack in week 8, but I only cashed about $30, which is kind of what drove me nuts and made me make a bunch of lineups this week. Because the rest of that lineup had some holes, at TE (Ladarius, UGH) and maybe one RB, I saw it as a large loss in opportunity cost, rather than a win. I didn't totally blank but this week but this was my most frustrating so far in my rookie season so to speak. A lot of it had to do with minimizing exposure to DeAngelo (thinking he would be chalk, and possibly be mediocre like he has been for the last 14 years), and not wanting to play 5 Steelers (Brown, Miller, Ben, Bryant). I was also very heavy on Ingram, as I thought it shaped up to be a big week for him, and it could have been if he wasn't hapless on the goal line.

Regardless, thank you all for the advice as usual, its definitely helpful. I'm just going to try different things the rest of the season until I find what I feel is comfortable for me. I like the idea of core skill players and building a few lineups around that. I think you have to mix and match TEs a bit because even though it says they are less volatile week to week than other players in the old Bales book (I think), its hard to know who will get off in an offense like the Pats or Bengals. Could be anybody pretty much. Sorry to hear about the crappy week Odie, but I'm sure it happens to everyone. I also need to check out Fantasy Hub and some different sites to maximize pricing differences, etc. I have just stuck with DK so far because it seems like they will be reliable when you want to draw down.