How does everyone decide when to fade on a pick?
This week for example, almost everyone is going to play Amendola and Chandrick West on DK because of their crazy low prices. So in a cash game situation do you have to play them (to keep up) or do you Fade them? This is somehting i have had problems with and would love to hear other people's takes
For me in cash games I will almost never fade a pick when their match up and price are too good. I do not want to be playing catch up if they do go off and if they don't go off with 70% or more of the field having the player it won't hurt you. In GPP's for a player like West I would not fade him. His price and match up are too good and I do not think you can get similar value with anyone else and he has a high ceiling. Amendola is an easy fade for me as I do not think he has the ceiling that I like for GPPs.
It almost entirely depends on my evaluation of the player. Sometimes I'll reluctant own a super chalky player in cash games because the risk of being wrong in my evaluation outweighs the reward of being correct. In GPPs, I'm more likely to fade an expensive chalk play than a bargain one, because when the chalk is an expensive option, you have more options for pivoting. In the cases of West and Amendola, there aren't that many great options around their price points. In West's case, I don't see any viable pivots. In Amendola's, I like LaFell, Stevie Johnson Michael Floyd and even paying up to Sammy Watkins as alternatives who could outscore Amendola.
Josh nails it for me, a cheap chalk play is very tough to fade, but making expensive swerves can pay off.
When the QB's last name is Sanchez.
