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2016 Recap & 2017 Outlook

Boston boasted one of the more potent offenses last season, averaging over five runs per game, narrowing out Colorado for the league lead. Boston featured Rick Porcello and David Price as their two DFS worthy arms, but went out and landed Chris Sale in the offseason. We will get to him later. Boston is in a good place to succeed without their slugger, David Ortiz, who retired last season. They added Mitch Moreland, and Hanley Ramirez will move to the DH spot. Andrew Benintendi, MLB's number one ranked prospect is slotted to the starting lineup this season, and is expected to do big things. He will be one of the few prospects to make an immediate impact. Boston's big names and offense will lead to another big year in DFS, while the rotation has some question marks.

Offseason Moves

Additions: Chris Sale, Mitch Moreland

Subtractions: David Ortiz, Travis Shaw, Clay Buchholz

Park Factors

Fenway Park was friendly last season, ranking top five in runs, and was in the top half in home runs. Fenway is neutral to right-handed power, and is tough on left-handers in the home run department. Fenway ranked first in doubles, and was top five in triples. The spacious triangle out in right-center bodes well for speedsters and guys who can hit their gaps. Fenway should play similar in 2017, being a slightly above average park for hitters, but mainly right-handers. Left-handed power hitters still have better parks to hit at.

Projected Lineup

Lineup OrderPlayerPosition2016 wOBA vs. RHP2016 ISO vs. RHP2016 wOBA vs. LHP2016 ISO vs. LHP
1Dustin Pedroia2B.358.136.360.110
2Xander BogaertsSS.340.146.378.176
3Mookie BettsOF.388.205.341.248
4Hanley RamirezDH.342.185.453.331
5Pablo Sandoval3B----
6Mitch Moreland1B.299.186.341.202
7Andrew BenintendiOF.416.247.202.000
8Jackie Bradley Jr. OF.378.261.294.116
9Sandy LeonC.329.141.445.239

2016 Statistics Used

Projected Rotation

Rotation SpotNameIPK%FIP
1David Price230243.60
2Chris Sale226.225.73.46
3Rick Porcello22321.23.40
4Drew Pomeranz67.1244.87
5Eduardo Rodriguez10721.84.43

Pitching Outlook & Notes

DFS Rotation Grade: A

DFS Studs: David Price, Chris Sale

David Price is already starting 2017 on rocky waters. His injury concern to start the year leaves us with a wait and see approach when he does come back. With that being said, we have it easy in our fantasy game. When Price is healthy, he is one of the better fantasy pitchers in baseball. However, last season was a little bit up and down by price standards. Home runs were up, and strikeouts were down just a tad. His 3.52 xFIP and 3.60 SIERA shows he was somewhat unlucky. The 34.8% hardball rate is a bit scary though.

Boston went out and traded for Chris Sale this offseason, adding another lefty to their rotation this season. That makes it four when everyone is healthy. Sale gets backed by an elite offense, a better bullpen, and a ballpark that is tough on left-handers, and slightly better for right-handers. Sale is coming off of another elite season, and while strikeouts were down, there isn't any reason for concern. Sale is an ace.

The AL Cy Young winner, Rick Porcello, isn't a dominate fantasy arm. He is a good one, but when the price tag rose last season, so did my interest. There will be some regression, and he doesn't have the strikeout potential to make up for it. He will be a reliable arm, but for the right price. Drew Pomeranz is injury prone, and is much like Price in where we need to wait and see. Eduardo Rodriguez has potential to be a solid mid-rotation guy, but has trouble getting the consistency going.

Lineup Outlook & Notes

DFS Stacking Grade: A-

DFS Studs: Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

Losing David Ortiz is tough to deal with, but Boston's lineup shouldn't have any issues. They went out and signed Mitch Moreland, which is a slightly underrated move in the offseason, and now Hanley Ramirez will get to DH, and be the primary RBI man in the middle of the lineup. Hanley really mashed over the second half of the season, and absolutely hammered left-handed pitching. He had a .453 wOBA and a .331 ISO against southpaws last season.

Mookie Betts came close to knocking off Mike Trout in his AL MVP throne. Betts had 100+ RBI and runs, stole 26 bases, and hit 31 home runs. He had five multi home run games, including two three home run games. Betts is one of the top fantasy players in the game, but you will have to pay a pretty penny to get him.

Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts both had solid 2016 seasons, although one should continue to trend upwards. Pedroia hitting leadoff will give him great worth, as long as he is healthy. He had 105 runs last season, and hit 15 home runs. With the back of the lineup being solid, Pedroia will see more RBI chances than the average leadoff man would. Bogaerts hit 21 home runs last season, and brought up his ISO to .152. He had 89 RBI and 115 runs. Bogaerts has always had a solid stroke against southpaws, and that remained in 2016 with a .378 wOBA.



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