MLB Mobile Sports Betting Toolkit
The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Arrieta - RHP - Chicago Cubs | ||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total & ML |
$9,600 | $9,000 | @ Reds | 3.98 | 20.1% | 45% | 7 and 1.88 |
Brandon Morrow - RHP - San Diego Padres | ||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opponent | FIP | K% | GB% | Vegas Run Total & ML |
$6,200 | $6,800 | vs Dodgers | 3.90 | 24.1% | 38.7% | 7.5 and .186 |
CATCHER
Salvador Perez - RHB - KC Royals | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$2,900 | $ | Danks - LHP | .348 | .191 | 95 | 7 | 8 |
Yesterday's game was postponed due to weather, meaning Chicago's lefty, John Danks, will push his appearance back to this afternoon. That's good news for Kansas City righties, as Danks owns a hefty .360 wOBA against right-handed bats. As I mentioned yesterday, Buster Posey against a lefty in Coors Field is the de facto top option. However, if you want to take a chance in fading him for tournament play, Salvador Perez is another lefty masher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The lower batting order is annoying, but it should help dampen his ownership percentage.
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz - LHB - Boston Red Sox | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,400 | $4,700 | B.Norris - RHP | .412 | .282 | 162 | 3 | 8.5 |
I recommended Ortiz in this column on Friday, and he delivered in a big way. Now, he's in a similar situation, and his price point has mysteriously dropped on FanDuel. Baltimore pitcher Bud Norris has been notoriously kind to left-handed power over the past several seasons, allowing .360 wOBA and 1.25 HR/9 against left-handed hitters. Even though Ortiz has a fantastic matchup in a hitter-friendly park, a highly competitive first base position will likely drive his ownership percentage down. I'm viewing Ortiz on par with the likes of Jose Abreu and Anthony Rizzo (in terms of matchup potential), for a fraction of the cost.
Freddie Freeman - LHB - Atlanta Braves | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,200 | $5,000 | J.Williams - RHP | .389 | .210 | 149 | 3 | 7.5 |
There's no other way to put it: Freeman has been pretty brutal over the past week, going just 1-18 over the past five games. However, that presents a nice "buy low opportunity" against Jerome Williams in a hitter-friendly atmosphere. Williams has some of the worst splits of any pitcher taking the mound today, sporting a .347 wOBA mark against lefties.
SECOND BASE
Neil Walker - Switch - Pittsburgh Pirates | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$2,900 | $3,800 | Hellickson - RHP | .355 | .201 | 130 | 4 | 7.5 |
Walker's price point is particular compelling on DraftKings, but he's not a bad play on FanDuel either. The switch-hitting second baseman continues to hold down the cleanup role for Pittsburgh. He'll have a great chance to inflict some fantasy damage against Hellickson, as
THIRD BASE
Alex Rodriguez - RHB - NY Yankees | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,300 | $4,300 | Niese - LHP | .369 | .159 | 106 | 3 | 8 |
A-Rod is soooo last week, right? He hit three homeruns in two games, then has been somewhat middling since. That has dampened some of the enthusiasm surround the Yankee third basemen, and now is the time to target another "A-bomb" from A-Rod. Jon Niese has been fairly generous to right-handed bats, offering up a .336 wOBA to those who hold the platoon advantage. That sets up well for Rodriguez, who sees the ball well from a left-handed release point (.369 wOBA .159 ISO). I like Rodriguez, Chris Young, and Mark Teixeira as a sneaky mini-stack from the Yanks.
SHORTSTOP
Alcides Escobar - RHB - KC Royals | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$2,500 | $4,300 | Danks - LHP | .302 | .092 | 76 | 1 | 8 |
Escobar's price point has dipped on FanDuel, and now is the perfect time to buy low. I'd probably shy away on DraftKings, were he's still priced like an above average shortstop option. As I mentioned before, John Danks has been very generous to righties (.360 wOBA), and Escobar's leadoff spot should come into play this afternoon. A multiple-hit, multiple run performance seems very likely in this situation. Feel free to target Escobar in cash games as well as tournaments.
OUTFIELD
Steve Pearce - RHB - Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$3,000 | $3,800 | Miley - LHP | .384 | .246 | 123 | 3 | 8.5 |
Andrew McCutchen - RHB - Pittsburgh Pirates | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs RHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs RHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs RHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$4,000 | $5,200 | Hellickson - RHP | .389 | .203 | 155 | 3 | 8 |
Justin Maxwell - RHB - SF Giants | |||||||
FanDuel Salary | DraftKings Salary | Opp Pitcher & Handedness | wOBA vs LHP 2012-2015 | ISO vs LHP 2012-2015 | wRC+ vs LHP 2012-2015 | Batting Order | Vegas Run Total |
$2,800 | $3,600 | Matzek - LHP | .333 | .176 | 99 | 6 | 10 |
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