MLB Cash Game Picks : 6-30-15

Pitcher

Chris Sale day has become one of my favorite days this season, especially with the roll he is on. He has seven straight starts with double-digit strikeouts, and with the Cardinals 24% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, Sale will likely head for yet another monster outing. He is generating a whopping 15.9% swinging strike rate and is extremely tough on left-handed batters. The guys who do the damage for the Cardinals are predominately left-handed, so not good news for them. St. Louis ranks 23rd in wRC+ against lefties, and their run total is among some of the smallest on tonight's slate. The upside for strikeouts makes me completely overlook him being an underdog, and I believe a win would be asking a lot for Sale given the state of the White Sox offense.

With Sonny Gray being a late scratch, Jordan Zimmermann will come into the picture as a solid SP2 on DraftKings tonight. With the Braves offense being without their best hitter, Freddie Freeman, they have just a 73 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Zimmermann is not a big strikeout guy, but will likely average around five and be safe for a quality start. He has allowed six earned over three starts against the Braves this season, and he is coming off eight innings of shutout ball against them. He is a slight favorite with Vegas, but I have higher confidence the Nats provide the run support he needs. Let Sale take care of the strikeouts, and Zimmermann provide innings of quality pitching.

Catcher

There are a few options behind the dish, but Matt Wieters stands out as one of the better options. Camden Yards has had a 117 park factor for lefty home runs in the last three seasons, per StatCorner. We saw Texas take advantage of that with Bud Norris on the mound, and now the Orioles will face the Rangers' equivalent to Norris. Since 2012, Colby Lewis has allowed a .351 wOBA to left-handed bats, with just a 34% ground-ball rate. Wieters had the day off yesterday, so I am confident with him being back in the lineup, but be sure to double check anyway. There has been very little rust shown from Wieters this season, he has a 38% hard hit ball rate against right-handed pitchin, with a .342 average. Derek Norris and Yasmani Grandal are also honorable mentions behind the plate this evening.

First Base

While DraftKings priced Adrian Gonzalez fairly high tonight, I will take a look at some moderately priced first basemen. Gonzalez is an excellent play on FanDuel since Rubby De La Rosa has really struggled against lefties. Joey Votto, however, is at a really nice affordable price range, especially to pair up with Sale. Phil Hughes has allowed a .338 wOBA to lefties this season with a 26.5% line drive rate. Great American Ballpark has had a massive 155 park factor for lefty home runs over the last three seasons, which feeds into the Votto pick tonight. Votto is posting a .397 wOBA off right-handed pitching this season and a 40% hard hit ball rate.

Missing the park factor Votto has in his favor, I am a big fan of Brandon Belt in tonight's slate. Lefties are teeing off on Mat Latos in 2015, with a .366 wOBA and a 33% line drive rate. I am a little shocked to see the Giants run total below four, as they rank in the top five in offense against right-handed pitching. Belt has a .383 wOBA against right-handed pitching and a 34% line drive rate. There are definitely plenty of options down in this price range for first base tonight.

Second Base

While Jose Altuve is the top play, his price tag is fairly high again, and there are cheaper options. Jimmy Paredes is hitting .500 in the last seven days, and he has .338 overall in June. He will enjoy the same juicy matchup as Wieters and be right in the middle of that team total of five. He has a .389 wOBA against right-handed pitching and a high line drive rate of 27%. With tonight's slate filled with high priced matchups, you can also take a look at Joe Panik for a cheaper option.

Third Base

The Bringer Of Rain, aka Josh Donaldson, has not performed up to his price tag of late. The stars align for us this evening, as he will face a lefty in the Rogers Centre. He has a .475 wOBA off lefties, and a .450 wOBA at home. His home/away splits are pretty heavy, but he has closed the gap from just being only a lefty masher. Donaldson ranks in the top 10 in hard hit ball percentage against lefties, nearing almost 50%. Eduardo Rodriguez experienced his first career blowup against the Jays and has looked less impressive over his last few starts. If you have the extra cash in your arsenal, fire away on Donaldson.

With how bad Jon Niese has been, and the top of the Cubs order, I am a little surprised at this run total too. Kris Bryant has crushed lefties since entering the majors. He has a 44% hard hit ball rate to go along with the numbers above. Niese has allowed a .323 wOBA since 2012 to righties, but a .360 wOBA this season. Citi Field has had a 115 park factor over the last three seasons for right-handed homers. Bryant has an impressive walk rate, and he can also steal a base from time to time.

Shortstop

If I am paying up for a shortstop, it is Carlos Correa. His batted ball stats are impressive for someone who has been in the majors for 20 games. His strikeout rate drops by 8% when facing left-handed pitching, as we expect it to be high for a rookie player. He has a 25% line drive rate off lefties in 42 at-bats and a 163 wRC+. He has shown off all his tools already, with five homers and four stolen bases. Danny Duffy has allowed a .369 wOBA to right-handed bats, and his 2014 regression that never came has certainly arrived this season. He has a poor ground-ball rate and is allowing a line drive rate over 30%. If I am paying down, it will likely be for J.J. Hardy, or possibly punt even lower.

Outfield

In and out battling injuries over the last few seasons, Justin Verlander has allowed a .318 wOBA to right-handed bats, but more recent a .372 wOBA in 2014. The number has been climbing over the last few seasons, and he is still regaining health in 2015. Andrew McCutchen can take advantage of a weakening Verlander tonight. He has a .375 wOBA off right-handed pitching in 2015. He is about to finish June with a 46% hard hit ball rate, and he has turned around his season from the early struggles. Cutch will get a boost in park factor. Comerica has had a 100 park factor for right-handed homers. Any place is a boost over PNC though.

We have seen switch-hitters really struggle against left-handed pitching, but that is not the case for Dexter Fowler. He has outstanding numbers over the last few seasons against lefties, and it has carried into 2015. He has a .379 wOBA, and is hitting .349, which is a massive upgrade to his .217 average against righties. He comes at a discount price, but a ton of value, especially against a struggling Jon Niese. Cheap leadoff hitters are among my favorite things in MLB DFS, so take advantage of this one tonight.

This game features two pitchers who struggle tremendously against left-handed bats. Over 195 total batters faced, Carlos Frias has allowed a .389 wOBA to lefties. David Peralta is really the only lefty who is worthy of a cash game play. Peralta is hitting .400 over the last seven games, with two extra base hits and a homer. He has a .350 wOBA off right-handed pitching with a 24% line drive rate. I really like his price tag on DraftKings, while he is a bit more expensive on FanDuel, but still will be worth it.