MLB GPP Tournament Picks: 8-19-15

The purpose of this column is to highlight some players with upside and well-suited for tournaments. While the majority of the hitter picks will likely have power upside, that's not necessarily the case for all the listed options. Other contextual factors such as batting order, ballpark, opposing pitcher, price, speed, etc also come into play, and you'll see these items sprinkled into the write-ups below. Along with that, we'll be gauging the ownership levels, giving you some plausible pivots from the popular choices in a given game slate.

Top Pitcher

I actually think you could make cases for all the top arms to be GPP arms. The matchups for all the stud pitchers tonight aren't exactly ideal. Dallas Keuchel might be overlooked due to the Rays being tough on left-handed pitching, and also go back to his game logs to see a poor outing against them a few starts ago. He was on the road then, and now he is back home pitching at Minute Maid Park, where he is unbeatable. Home/away splits are a thing, and Keuchel has a severe case of them. Not that he is bad on the road, it is just a 1.26 ERA at home is worthy of his price, comparing to a 3.65 ERA on the road. He is coming off of a start where he dominated a Tigers lineup, which included Miguel Cabrera. His strikeout rate is significantly higher at home, sitting at a 27.5% clip. Tampa has a 21.6% strikeout rate against lefties, and their numbers have been on par with Detroit versus southpaws. You should find a healthy mix of Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, and Keuchel in GPPs, with Kluber being the highest owned. Taking guys like Stephen Strasburg and Jon Lester is incredibly risky, but both teams carry heavy strikeout rates. Not sure if I have the plums to take Stras in Coors, or Lester versus the Tigers with the winds the way they are.

Top Hitters

The price tag and PNC Park will likely keep Paul Goldschmidt's ownership somewhat low, but anytime he faces a lefty, he will be on people's radars. Goldy has a .487 wOBA off left-handed pitching this season, with a monster .302 ISO. His hard hit ball rate is, wait for it, 50.8% off lefties. J.A. Happ has circled around the bigs this season, going from the Mariners, to the minors, and now with the Pirates. He has allowed a .335 wOBA to right-handed bats this season, which is on par with his career norm. Goldy has enormous upside, which we haven't seen much of lately, but could be a calm before the storm type of deal, and PNC Park is where we least expect it.

I really like both offenses in Great American Ballpark tonight, mainly the left-handed bats. Weather looks like it could be an issue, but if things begin to look any bit playable, you could gain an edge selecting players from that game. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer are the two bats I was eyeing before checking the weather.

With two lefties on the mound in this game, and two on the weaker to average side, it creates a chance for some big offense in an unlikely place. We have seen the Pirates put up crooked numbers before, and the Diamondbacks offense is pretty stout too. Andrew McCutchen has a .379 wOBA off left-handed pitching this season. He is really dialed in right now with a 60% hard hit ball rate in the month of August. Robbie Ray has been fairly decent on the hill, but a near 40% hard hit ball rate to right-handed bats is a bit scary for him. Cutch should keep his second half surge going tonight. You can also toss Starling Marte into the mix, he has been great against lefties too, with a .383 wOBA in 2015.

Ian Desmond hit .211 in the first half, played awful defense, and really just could not do anything right. The break was a blessing for Desmond as he is hitting .278 in the second half, with a .272 ISO. It is hard to say he has hit lefties better than righties this season, but a small increase in wOBA does indicate that. He does have a career .332 wOBA off lefties with a .172 ISO. Desmond is going to get the Coors bump, and is definitely worth a look in GPPs, especially after last night. Jorge De La Rosa has allowed a .369 wOBA to right-handed bats in Coors. Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Yunel Escobar, and Anthony Rendon are all in play as well.

Kris Bryant is a really nice price option in comparison to the top guys at the hot corner. Josh Donaldson and Nolan Arenado have their price bumps, and they are also honorable mentions. Wrigley winds are raging tonight, and blowing out. This is a big bump for both teams. Norris has a modest .329 wOBA allowed to right-handed bats in a small sample size, and has a 5.11 xFIP. After a horrid July, Kris Bryant is back slugging the ball, with a .415 wOBA in August. I also like his teammates Dexter Fowler and Anthony Rizzo, who have a great track record against southpaws. Rizzo has a sneaky lefty-lefty matchup that will be overlooked by the common player, but he has a .435 wOBA off lefties this season.

Value and Platoon Plays

Welington Castillo (C - ARI) FD: $3,400 DK: $3,400

Staying in Pittsburgh for one more play here. Welington Castillo has a solid track record against lefties, with a career .373 wOBA. He has a .378 wOBA off southpaws this season, so not much of change. Going to the other dugout for a deeper GPP play, Francisco Cervelli has a .450 wOBA off left-handed pitching this season.

Ubaldo Jimenez (P - BAL) FD: $7,900 DK: $7,400

The Baltimore righty has been all over the place this season, but he has had some nice stretches at times. He is in the midst of a not so good one after posting a 2.81 ERA in the first half. Ubaldo Jimenez has a nice matchup against the New York Mets, who have the ninth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and rank 25th in wRC+. Jimenez has GPP play written all over him. He has a pretty high ceiling when he has things working, but also has blown up plenty of times. For $7,400 he makes for a nice SP2 on DK for GPPs, and he's $7,900 on FanDuel, making him a risky option for tournaments. He does let you get some Coors bats in comfortably, however.

Lonnie Chisenhall (3B - CLE) FD: $2,800 DK: $3,300

Lonnie Chisenhall is just hitting over .350 in the last 10 games, and is still sitting at a very cheap price tag. He has a .439 wOBA in the second half, and Fenway Park has 152 park factor for left-handed extra base hits in the last three seasons. Granted Chisenhall gets a solid lineup spot, which has not been the case a times, he will be a great GPP value play.

Rajai Davis (OF - DET) FD: $2,400 DK: $3,400

Jon Lester has allowed 35 stolen bases on the season, which is the most in the majors. He simply can't throw to first, which means he has a hard time holding runners. Rajai Davis will jump to the leadoff spot against Lester, and he gets a boost with the wind, and also gets a boost on the base paths. This should be an overlooked aspect to Davis' game tonight, and I don't see many being on him. Granted he reaches, he is a likely candidate for a stolen base.