Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.
Projected Lineup Order
I have to admit I am a little salty about stacking A's for most of the season, and then hopped off when they put up a big game against Ryu. Marco Gonzales is a former first round pick, but has not shown the ability to pitch in the majors. He has a few seasons under his belt, but more in spot starts than anything. He has allowed a career .392 wOBA to right-handed bats, with a 1.65 HR/9, and 38.4% hard-contact rate. Those are notable numbers to target, and while Safeco isn't the greatest place for right-handed power, neither is Oakland, and these dudes have no problem mashing home runs.
Khris Davis is my favorite play from this group, although Matt Chapman is a close second. Both have been on huge HR tears to start the season, and there is a great chance that continues tonight. Both have over a .200 ISO against right-handers dating back to last season. Another reason to like the A's so much is the face Gonzales has thrown his changeup about 30% of the time in his career, and Oakland was top ten against changeups as a team in 2017. Marcus Semien, Chapman, and Davis had over a .200 ISO against changeups in 2017. Jonathan Lucroy also crushed changeups, and the same goes for Matt Olson.
You might see some guys like Stephen Piscotty and Jake Smolinski jump up in the lineup, and are also value bats I don't mind working into a stack. I don't expect Oakland to be terribly low-owned, so you can make a pivot to another right-handed bat. Oakland is still a boom or bust team, so I am trying to not get my expectations up too high, but this is a prime spot.
San Francisco Giants / San Diego Padres
Projected Lineup Order
Petco Park is not a place I generally look for offense, and instead of a team stack in this one, I like a game stack with the two lefties on the hill. I know Derek Holland has pitched well to start the season, and Clayton Richard is a high groundball arm, but I still prefer the bats on both sides in this one. Starting with the Giants side, you could roll out a full team stack depending on how the lineup goes, guys like Hunter Pence and Austin Jackson will find themselves in a good spot, given they have a solid track record against left-handers.
Richard allowed a 38% hard-contact rate to right-handers last season, and despite having over a 55% groundball rate against right-handers, he allowed 23 home runs to right-handers. He has already allowed a .359 wOBA and two homers this season. Buster Posey and Andrew McCutchen are the more notable big bats here against southpaws, boasting over a .200 ISO off them since last season. Evan Longoria dropped off a bit, but is a more contrarian way to go at third base, in hopes he can turn back the clock a bit.
On the Padres side of things, they offer up some boom or bust power bats against Holland. Jose Pirela and Hunter Renfroe have a larger track record, both owning over a .200 ISO against southpaws since last season. Christian Villanueva has shown some power against lefties in a very small sample size if you want to use him, feel free. Holland has limited two good offenses to start the year, but over the longer run he has been pretty bad. Allowing a .408 wOBA against right-handers in 2017 with a 2.26 HR/9 is a concern.
Projected Lineup Order
Matt Harvey is someone I don't mind picking on tonight, even though I also could see him having some strikeout upside. The two big lefties in the lineup are who I like the most, especially Travis Shaw. Harvey has allowed a .388 wOBA and 38% hard-contact rate to right-handers this season, not showing any sort of improvement from last season. In 2017, he allowed a .426 wOBA to lefties with a 36.7% hard-contact rate. His groundball rate is better against right-handers, but he still allowed a .335 wOBA in 2017, and has allowed a 50% hard-contact rate to right-handers. Milwaukee has been more of a timely offense so far this season than one that is putting up runs consistently. Outside of Shaw, I like these bats in tournaments. Shaw is an all-formats guy. Their prices are reasonable, and there is plenty of upside on the base paths and home run department. Lorenzo Cain has been given the green light most times on base already this season, as he near the tops in SB attempts.
Because of those lefty numbers, Eric Thames and Shaw are two primary targets. Both owning over a .350 wOBA and .200 ISO off right-handers since last season. While Thames is a strikeout guy, he slightly falls behind Shaw for a top target. Shaw and Thames both have hard-contact rates near 40% off right-handers dating back to last season. Guys like Ryan Braun and Cain are targets to round out the stack, Braun isn't someone I am looking at outside of a Brewers stack. If we get something weird like Jonathan Villar hitting fifth or up in the order, he would be another lefty I have interest in.