MLB Stacking To Win It: 4-27-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

This is only the second start of the season for Ramirez, so there isn't a lot to go off from this season, but dating back to last year we can find plenty of exploitable spots in his game. Ramirez, on the surface, doesn't look completely terrible, as he has posted a 4.57 ERA and 19.7% strikeout rate, but left-handed hitters have given him fits in that span. They have hit him incredibly hard, with a 43.8% hard contact rating and he has allowed 2.22 home runs per nine innings to them. I mostly want to target the left-handed hitters in this lineup, however, right-handed hitters could have some value, as well, with his 35.6% hard contact and 40% FB rating allowed to right-handed hitters.

Erasmo's two-seam fastball has been the biggest culprit of his issues, as he has allowed a .415 ISO and .523 wOBA with the pitch, and Yonder Alonso (.234 ISO, .375 wOBA, .376 OBP) has obliterated two-seam fastballs with a .400 ISO against the pitch. In addition to Yonder, Jose Ramirez (.280 ISO, .397 wOBA, .373 OBP) has had a lot of success against two-seam fastballs, as he posted a .405 ISO against the pitch last season, and Jason Kipnis (.167 ISO, .286 wOBA, .276 OBP) could be an overlooked power bat here, as he posted a .630 ISO against the pitch last season. Outside of those hitters, Francisco Lindor (.227 ISO, .334 wOBA, .319 OBP) profiles extremely well here, with a .309 ISO against two-seam fastballs and a .336 xwOBA against cutters, and of course, Michael Brantley (.176 ISO, .364 wOBA, .372 OBP) should definitely be in consideration in the cleanup spot. Lastly, Bradley Zimmer (.147 ISO, .294 wOBA, .299 OBP) is a great value option at the bottom of the order, as he has obliterated cutters, as evidenced by his .429 ISO against the pitch last season.

Honorable Mention: New York Yankees right-handed hitters, Chicago White Sox right-handed hitters.

17.1 innings pitched, eight strikeouts, 11 walks, five homers, 19 earned runs. That is what Chris Tillman has allowed in his first four games this season. If those numbers sound bad, well, that's because they are. Tillman is battling for his job in the rotation, and while that may be worrisome for a few, it isn't for me. As long as he continues to struggle with home runs, walks, and run, I want to continue stacking against him. Tillman's strikeout rate has plummeted to 13.3% dating back to last season, he is allowing hard contact over 38% of the time to both sides of the plate, left-handed hitters are walking like crazy against him, and right-handed hitters have managed a ton of power against him. All of this adds up to the Tigers being in a premier spot tonight, and it is made even better by the fact that they are playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards.

Tillman relies heavily on a low-velocity four-seam fastball, hurling it around 36% of the time while mixing in a changeup, knuckle-curve, and slider. He throws his slider about 33% of the time to right-handed hitters, with his changeup logging about 24% usage to left-handed hitters, meaning we should focus on the hitters in the Tigers lineup that excel against those pitches. Nicholas Castellanos (.184 ISO, .327 wOBA, .318 OBP) is a great option that should bat cleanup, as he has posted a .750 ISO against low-velocity four-seam fastballs and a .306 ISO against changeups. It is likely that Leonys Martin (.196 ISO, .399 wOBA, .397 OBP) will once again lead off for the Tigers and is almost always a great cheap bat, while Jeimer Candelario (.185 ISO, .357 wOBA, .356 OBP) is a nice combination of power and speed that tends to bat in the two hole. Victor Martinez (.134 ISO, .313 wOBA, .331 OBP) is a power option to consider, as he posted a .300 ISO against low-velocity four-seam fastballs last season, while Miguel Cabrera (.150 ISO, .302 wOBA, .315 OBP) is another power bat in the lineup. In a limited sample, John Hicks (.163 ISO, .330 wOBA, .331 OBP) has flashed a ton of power against four-seam fastballs, as well. Whichever value pieces among Dixon Machado, JaCoby Jones, or Jose Iglesias makes the lineup can be rolled out tonight, as well.

Another day, another Cardinals stack against a lefty. Once again, this is one of my favorite spots to potentially find some lower ownership as the Cardinals power bats face off against Steven Brault in Pittsburgh. Obviously, there is a major park downgrade for the Cardinals here, as PNC Park was the second-worst park in the majors for right-handed home runs, but it was a decent park for doubles and triples, which is still a great benefit for these hitters tonight. Brault got off to a hot start to the season, allowing just one earned run in his first eight innings, but it has been all downhill from him since then. Over his last 16.1 innings, Brault has managed just eight strikeouts but has walked seven hitters and has allowed 11 earned runs. He has posted a 4.44 ERA on the season but a 5.44 SIERA and 5.51 xFIP, suggesting that he could've actually been worse over that span. Dating back to last season, Brault has struggled against right-handed hitters, striking them out just 14.5% of the time, while allowing a massive 41.5% hard contact rating and a .347 wOBA, putting the Cardinal's right-handed bats firmly in play here.

Tommy Pham (.255 ISO, .427 wOBA, .442 OBP) should bat leadoff in this spot and profiles as a great option here, as he posted a .363 xwOBA and .375 ISO against two of Brault's primary pitches, while Jose Martinez (.406 ISO, .520 wOBA, .488 OBP) has posted a .333 ISO against sliders, a pitch that Brault has started to hurl more frequently against right-handed hitters. After those two, Yadier Molina (.285 ISO, .345 wOBA, .299 OBP) profiles as a great catcher option to use, as he posted a .464 xwOBA against four-seam fastballs, followed by Jedd Gyorko (.257 ISO, .395 wOBA, .378 OBP) as a great way to get exposure to the bottom of the St. Louis order. Paul DeJong's 34.3% strikeout rate should be minimized by Brault's lack of strikeout stuff and his .298 ISO against southpaws dating back to last season is incredibly appealing in this spot. Don't forget about Marcell Ozuna (.110 ISO, .327 wOBA, .366 OBP) in the cleanup spot, and of course, Harrison Bader is an option if he gets in the lineup over Dexter Fowler.