MLB Stacking To Win It: 5-10-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

After starting the season with a 2-0 record and 3.50 ERA in his first three starts, Mike Leake has done a complete heel turn. He is 1-3 with an 8.70 ERA in his last four starts and things probably won't improve for him tonight against the Blue Jays. While his numbers dating back to last season against hitters on both sides of the plate don't look terrible, as you can see in the table above, his 2018 numbers have been completely putrid. Leake's flyball rate to both sides of the plat has skyrocketed, with right-handed hitters posting a 49.3% FB rate and left-handed hitters posting a 39.1% FB rate against him, and his ISO allowed to left-handed hitters has jumped to .333. Left-handed hitters, this season, have posted a massive .524 wOBA against him while right-handed hitters have a .243 woBA against him. The Blue Jays don't have a heap of left-handed hitters to worry about, but they have a few, and of course they have some extremely powerful right-handed hitters that can rake in this spot. Leake has been relying heavily on his cutter, throwing it about 24% of the time, along with a sinker that he is throwing about 28% of the time, and a mixture of sliders, changeups, and knuckle-curves. Focusing on those that hit cutters and sinkers will be key here, and boy do the Jays have some guys that do that.

Teoscar Hernandez (.349 ISO, .399 wOBA, .331 OBP) is the first option that stands out here. He has posted a massive 40.2% hard contact rating against right-handed pitching this season, with an average exit velocity of 94 MPH and a 43.5% flyball rate. Hernandez has crushed sinkers, with a .380 ISO and .468 xwOBA against the pitch, making him my favorite option of the bunch. After Hernandez, Justin Smoak (.255 ISO, .352 wOBA, .336 OBP) is a great option to consider. Smoak has been hitting the ball incredibly hard this season, as well, with a 40% hard contact rating, and has a .278 ISO against sinkers. More importantly with Smoak, he only has a 39.6% GB rate on the pitch, so he is generating lift on the contact he makes. I still question whether or not Josh Donaldson (.262 ISO, .379 wOBA, .375 OBP) is healthy or not, but he profiles as a great option against Leake tonight, as well. Donaldson has posted a massive .333 ISO against sinkers dating back to last season, along with a .468 xwOBA. Yangervis Solarte (.201 ISO, .342 wOBA, .335 OBP) has mashed against cutters, posting a .208 ISO against the pitch, and Russell Martin (.184 ISO, .324 wOBA, .333 OBP) has a .255 ISO against the pitch. Lastly, Curtis Granderson (.251 ISO, .357 wOBA, .356 OBP) mashed sinkers last season, as well, with a 222 ISO against the pitch, and should find himself in a great lineup spot.

The Yankees were shafted when the Red Sox decided not to roll out David Price yesterday but they may have been gifted a little blessing with Eduardo Rodriguez taking the mound against them. While the surface numbers above aren't staggeringly bad, the truth is that E-Rod is a guy with high strikeout upside and high blowup potential. Rodriguez has allowed at least five earned runs in back-to-back outings, and at least three earned in four of his six starts, and he has surrendered a decent amount of power to both sides of the plate. He has had flyball issues dating back to last season, with a 40% FB rate allowed to hitters on both sides of the plate, and that has caused issues this season as left-handed hitters have posted a .273 ISO against him. Left-handed hitters have also hit him incredibly hard this season, with a 42.9% hard hit rating. Rodriguez's changeup has been problematic for him, as lefties have posted a .500 ISO against the pitch. Right-handed hitters have blasted his four-seam fastball, a 92.7 MPH pitch he throws 45% of the time this season, posting a .300 ISO against the pitch.

Aaron Judge (.270 ISO, .399 wOBA, .440 OBP) has completely obliterated four-seam fastballs, with a .710 ISO against the pitch since 2016, while Giancarlo Stanton (.468 ISO, .492 wOBA, .444 OBP) has posted a .395 ISO against the pitch, making them both outstanding options here. Gary Sanchez (.299 ISO, .382 wOBA, .347 OBP) has mashed four-seam fastballs, as well, with a .250 ISO against the pitch, while Tyler Austin (.297 ISO, .419 wOBA, .400 OBP) has posted a .222 ISO against the pitch in a very limited sample. Aaron Hicks (.183 ISO, .352 wOBA, .359 OBP) is an interesting cheaper option from the NYY outfield that has posted a .209 ISO against four-seam fastballs. From the left side of the plate, Didi Gregorius (.310 woBA, .319 OBP) has mashed changeups, with a .293 ISO against the pitch. Feel free to toss out Miguel Andujar (.300 OBP) or Gleyber Torres (.325 wOBA, .385 OBP) if you want exposure to the bottom of the lineup.

Calling Chris Tillman a gascan at this point would be an insult to gascans everywhere, as Tillman has been an abject disaster all season. He couldn't escape the first inning against the Angels, allowing seven earned runs on seven hits, and has allowed at least four earned runs in all but one of his outings this season. He is getting blasted by hitters on both sides of the plate, with left-handed hitters posting a monster .448 wOBA against him dating back to last season, while right-handed hitters have posted a .277 ISO against him in that span. His 89 MPH four-seam fastball is getting obliterated by right-handed hitters, allowing a .632 ISO, and lefties have posted a .214 ISO against it. He has tried mixing in a two-seam fastball that he has allowed a .467 ISO with, as well, and his changeup has a .449 xwOBA attached to it.

The best place to start today will be Mike Moustakas (.280 ISO, .365 wOBA, .329 OBP) who has posted some great batted ball numbers against right-handed pitchers. He has an average exit velocity of 92.1 MPH with an average distance of 203 feet this season, and is generating hard contact at a 36% rate. After Moustakas, Lucas Duda (.268 ISO, .356 wOBA, .344 OBP) has posted some insanely good numbers against RHP and low-velocity four-seam fastballs. Duda is generating 42.7% hard contact against the handedness this season, and dating back to 2016, has posted a .684 ISO with a 73.33!!!% hard hit rating against 89 MPH fastballs. It should be noted, however, that he has done so in just 16 batted ball events, but still, WOW! Salvador Perez (.222 ISO, .340 wOBA, .308 OBP) is a great power option at catcher, as he posted a .222 ISO against sinkers, while Alex Gordon (.188 ISO, .364 woBA) is a good option towards the bottom of the order. Jorge Soler (.277 wOBA, .318 OBP) has turned things around this season and is a good power option, as well. Soler has posted a massive .238 ISO against sinkers and a .222 ISO against low-velocity four-seam fastballs. In a small sample, Whit Merrifield (.146 ISO, .314 wOBA) has mashed low-velocity four-seam fastballs, as well, with a .292 ISO.