MLB Stacking To Win It: 7-3-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

Alex Cobb has had flashes this season, like his start two games ago, but then he comes crashing back down to earth and has a game like his last where he allowed five run on eight hits in 4.2 innings. I am betting on the bad Alex Cobb rearing its head once again tonight as the Orioles take on the Phillies. Cobb has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last ten games and a total of 14 homer runs in 14 games this season. His 14.5% overall strikeout rate mitigates some of the risk with the Phillies bats tonight, as some of them are strikeout prone and the fact that Cobb is getting blasted by hitters on both sides of the plate eliminates the need to focus on his splits, for the most part. Cesar Hernandez (.147 ISO, .345 wOBA) is a great place to start tonight, as 2B is generally garbage, as he owns a .413 wOBA against Cobb's four-seam fastball, while Rhys Hoskins (.266 ISO, .371 wOBA) is a massive power threat in this spot. Cobb is allowing a .243 ISO and .382 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season, with his fastball allowing a .225 ISO, which is a problem when you have to face off against Hoskins. Rhys has been stellar over his past 10 games, posting a .930 OPS with four homers and 10 RBIs, and he owns a massive .503 wOBA and .414 ISO against Cobb's four-seam fastball. Odubel Herrera (.186 ISO, .343 wOBA) has cooled off a bit recently but he is still a great option here. He owns a .258 ISO and .432 wOBA against Cobb's four-seam fastball, although just a 77% contact rate. Carlos Santana (.214 ISO, .347 wOBA) owns a team-high 81% contact rate against RHP overall this season and leads the team with a 93.44% contact rate against Cobb's four-seam fastball, along with a .463 wOBA and .339 ISO against the pitch, making him a great option in all formats tonight. Nick Williams (.219 ISO, .321 wOBA) has been hitting better of late and owns a .400 ISO and 43.33% hard-contact rating against Cobb's fastball. Maikel Franco (.168 ISO, .313 wOBA) is potentially a strong value option here, as he owns a .237 ISO and .365 wOBA against Cobb's fastball, although he will bat towards the bottom of the order.

The Cincinnati Reds come into tonight's slate with the second-highest non-Coors total of the slate at 5.6 runs as they take on Lucas Giolito and the Chicago White Sox. Giolito is coming off his best start of June, allowing just one run against the Twins, but he had allowed at least four earned run in the three-consecutive starts prior to that. He has really struggled against left-handed hitters, and the Reds have a lot of great lefties, and the Reds have been one of the best teams in baseball of the past two weeks. They rank first in wRC+ over that span, posting a 133 wRC+, and have posted a league-high team wOBA of .370, as well. Giolito's struggles with left-handed hitters have been especially pronounced this season, as evidenced by his .220 ISO and 16% walk rate, so I will be focusing on them for the most part. That starts with Scooter Gennett (.184 ISO, .367 wOBA) who has been batting in the cleanup spot lately. He has a solid 36.8% hard contact rating against RHP this season, along with an 81.5% contact rate overall, making him someone that I love at the 2B spot tonight. Giolito is throwing his 92 MPH four-seam fastball about 55% to left-handed hitters and Scooter has completely obliterated that pitch, posting a .316 ISO and .438 wOBA against it dating back to 2016. Sticking with hitters that have obliterated fastballs in that range, Joey Votto (.172 ISO, .420 wOBA) owns a .317 ISO and .479 wOBA against it with a 51.14% HCR dating back to 2016. Votto has been stellar over the past 14 days as he has posted a .220 ISO and .429 wOBA over that span. Scott Schebler (.217 ISO, .343 wOBA) has been great against RHP this season and owns a massive 43.8% HCR against them. He is great against Giolito's fastball, as well, posting a .220 ISO and .402 wOBA against it, and is a great OF option here. I hope that Tucker Barnhart (..116 ISO, .289 wOBA) is behind the dish as he has been great against Giolito's fastball, as well, with a .169 ISO and .405 wOBA. His numbers against RHP don't look great but he does own a hard contact rating over 40% against them. Jesse Winker (.118 ISO, .351 wOBA) is a great option towards the bottom of the order as he owns a solid 85.7% contact rate against RHP and a .448 wOBA against Giolito's fastball.

The Astros come into tonight's slate with the second-highest projected total on the slate, yes higher than one of the Coors teams, and will likely be a very popular option as they take on Austin Bibens-Dirkx in Arlington. It is going to be incredibly hot, around 100 degrees, so it should be a great hitting environment tonight, and some exposure to them is definitely warranted. BBD (I am calling him that for now on because his name is stupid) has not been a total gascan this season but he has had his moments. He has allowed four and six earned runs in two of his four starts, while shutting down the Padres and Royals, but he continues to give up a lot of hard contact and flyballs. Right-handed hitters have hit him especially hard this season, with a 43.2% HCR and he has allowed a 46% flyball rate to them. I certainly prefer the right-handed hitters here, starting with Alex Bregman (.221 ISO, .374 wOBA) here as a starting point. Bregman has been hitting extremely well of late, with a 1.242 OPS and .413 OBP over his last ten games, and he owns a massive 94.44% contact rate and .240 ISO against BBD's primary pitch, an 89 MPH four-seam fastball. He is an excellent changuep hitter, as well, owning a .216 ISO against the pitch, which is important since BBD is throwing that about 21% of the time. George Springer (.159 ISO, .316 wOBA) is a decent option here, as he owns a .250 ISO and .421 wOBA against BBD's fastball, while Jose Altuve (.163 ISO, .404 wOBA) owns a .263 ISO and .473 wOBA against it. Evan Gattis (.258 ISO, .353 wOBA) has been obliterating baseballs over the past month, owning a .296 ISO in the month of June, and owns a .438 ISO against BBD's fastball. Tony Kemp (.095 ISO, .332 wOBA) is a decent value bat at the bottom of the lineup, as he owns a .402 wOBA against BBD's four-seam fastball, while both Josh Reddick (.104 ISO, .316 wOBA) and Marwin Gonzalez (.160 ISO, .304 wOBA) are both good options with over .400 wOBAs against BBD's fastball.