MLB Stacking To Win It: 4-20-18

Stacking has been a popular way to bring down tournaments, and some stacks are even cash game viable. We offer three free top stacks of the night and will provide stacks in a wide range of price tags. We do want to make it known that stacks in Colorado are often fairly obvious and popular stacks. We don't feel the need to break down Colorado stacks and will be more focused on other stacking options. Unless we are struggling to find three others, Colorado stacks will be a top choice but not broken down. We tend to look at park factors, Vegas numbers, starting pitcher and bullpen numbers, and various offensive stats. Feel free to shoot us questions on Twitter at @BrentHeiden1, @JGuilbault11, and @dfcafe.

There are a handful of offenses in good spots tonight, and plenty of stacks that could be listed as the top option. You have Coors with the Cubs in town, Yankees against flyball pitcher Marco Estrada in Yankee Stadium, and then Houston against James Shields. Houston, New York, Chicago, Colorado are all viable stacking options tonight, and will garnish a majority of the ownership. You might be thinking why I am not just skipping lumping Boston into the popular selection teams, and that is because I don't think they will be that high owned of a stack. Boston is expensive, but they will get mixed in with the teams above at their prices. Because they are on the west coast in a big ballpark, I tend to believe others will focus on the teams mentioned above. I could be wrong, but I don't think these guys will be insanely high owned. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez might be the exceptions.

Boston's offense continues to roll, and they will look to stay hot going into Oakland tonight. Kendall Graveman is on the hill, and has allowed 5, 5, 4, and 5 earned runs through four starts this season. He has failed to pitch past the fifth innings, and has seven walks over his last three starts. Graveman is a reverse splits guy, but lefties are starting to get to him more. This year they have a .571 wOBA and 31% hard-contact rate. For a sinker ball pitcher, Graveman is allowing a ton of home runs to start the year. Four to right-handers, and two to lefties. With Graveman also not going deep into games, Oakland's bullpen has been very below average so far in 2018. They are just outside the bottom ten in ERA, but are allowing a whopping 1.61 HR/9 and a 39% hard-contact rate.

All these Boston bats grade out so well against sinkers, outside of Rafael Devers, but it is a small sample size and I wouldn't exclude him from a stack because of it. But, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, and J.D. Martinez all mash sinkers, with over a .370 wOBA and .200 ISO. Even some of the bottom half guys could get in on the action tonight. Eduardo Nunez has a .362 wOBA off sinkers dating back to last season. Jackie Bradley Jr has a .422 wOBA and .230 ISO off them. I don't want to leave out Andrew Benintendi either, who has a .365 wOBA and .177 ISO off sinkers dating back to last year.

Brandon Finnegan will see this St. Louis team again, after surrendering five earned runs over 4.1 innings last time out. He allowed two homers, and walked four. The 2017-2018 stats are misleading because he has only pitched five games since the beginning of last year. His career numbers are a bit more telling. He has allowed a career .325 wOBA, 1.57 HR/9, and 35.7% hard-contact rate to right-handers. The 17% HR/FB ratio is also appealing for some of these Cardinals bats. St. Louis should be overlooked, and I like the potential they have as a stack, but also as one-offs if you don't want to roll out some redbirds. Finnegan has some swing and miss stuff, so this isn't a given stack. Cardinals bats are striking out, and outside of the Cincinnati series have been a bit down. Finnegan is mostly fastball slider, throwing the fastball over 60% of the time in his career, and the slider 20%. If we go off his one start in 2018, the slider was used 30% of the time.

The Cards are going to have some punch-outs tonight, and I don't think there is a way to avoid it, but the power is worth noting for a lot of these bats. Against sliders, Marcell Ozuna stood out, with a .330 wOBA and .205 ISO, but an xwOBA of .411. Yadier Molina has a .363 wOBA and .214 ISO off sliders dating back to last season. Paul DeJong is the big strikeout guy, but did have a .220 ISO off sliders. When looking at their numbers against southpaws alone, Jose Martinez is going to be the big bat that stands out. He has a .433 ISO and .531 wOBA dating back to last season. Tommy Pham is dealing with a groin injury, and could return tonight. If not, Harrison Bader hit second yesterday against Jon Lester, and has a .400 ISO and .496 wOBA in a very small sample size.

I am going off the wall with this last stack, and I will not recommend it unless you are building multiple lineups and can afford to use one as a Texas stack knowing damn well it could be a dead lineup by the end of the night. But hear me out before you just click out of this page. Global Life Park is above average for lefty and righty power dating back to last season. Historically Texas has hit better at home than on the road, I have probably mentioned that several times in the pitching articles, because I have been rolling out several pitchers against Texas so far this season. However, this team is extremely cheap and will be glanced over on a full Friday slate. With them being cheap, I like the idea of rolling them with an expensive stack, or using them with expensive pitching. It is an off the grid play that has the chance to take down a large field tournament.

Felix Hernandez could turn back the clock or could have a rocky start. His range of outcomes are very high in this one as are the Texas bats. Hernandez has allowed a .349 wOBA to lefties this season, and four home runs already. His two starts on the road, he has allowed 11 earned runs and four home runs. We saw similar numbers last season, where he allowed a .363 wOBA to lefties. A 40% hard-contact rate to left-handers with a 51.4% flyball rate is scary, and I know Texas has been bad, there are some power lefties that could take advantage of these splits.

Joey Gallo stands out, with a .333 ISO and .356 wOBA off right-handers dating back to last season. The 35% strikeout rate is the knock against him. Shin-Soo Choo had a strong series in Tampa, and I would love to see both him and Nomar Mazara get going. Choo has a .201 ISO against right-handers dating back to last season, while Mazara has a .180. While Adrian Beltre doesn't enjoy the lefty splits, Hernandez is still allowing poor numbers to right-handers. Beltre has a .361 wOBA and .195 ISO off right-handers. Depending on who else follows in the lineup, there are some punt options and mid-range guys to use here. It is a high risk high reward situation.