Finding value consistently in DFS is what separates the guys who'll be paying taxes the following year from the guys who struggle. Point chasing is probably the number one problem with novice DFSers. The best DFS players win only a bit over a 60% clip and strike for a ROI of 10% per night. Point chasing is riding a player's hot streak out even though his DFS price is going far above the % percentage of salary cap your comfortable with paying. Riding out hot streaks is all good and all, but when it's impacting how the rest of your lineup looks, it's a problem. Point chasing is not just a college thing either as it's a DFS rule of thumb. You have to have an idea going into a slate what your willing to pay for a player, and not that no matter what price he is you'll play him. Keeping player prices documented is a good way to see how much you played for a player last week vs. how much he is today. This can be helpful in confirming value. As usual, I'll provide my top value plays at high, mid and low pricing.
High-Priced Plays
Domas Sabonis - Forward, Gonzaga. (FD Price $9,800, DK Price $9,300)
Going into this slate, I said I wouldn't pay over 10K for Sabonis, and look at what we have here. At $9,900 Sabonis would have exceeded value in four of his last six and his minutes in his last two have lead to an even further bump in fps. The only thing that would stop Sabonis from hitting value would be foul trouble as his rebounding rate along with scoring since Karnowski went down is unreal. For only $300 dollars more in cap I'll gladly take Sabonis here over Wiltjer who's exceeded value at this price only twice in his last ten games.
Jacob Poeltl - Forward, Utah. (FD Price $8,800, DK Price $8,900)
Poeltl's price has slowly moved down and with his last three games being tough road tests in which Utah never surpassed 68 points. Well Utah is back home tonight, and while not the most ideal spot for Poeltl, I think his price along with being back home will make for him being a strong play. Avoiding foul risk will be key here, but I am finidng it hard to believe that Boucher/Bell will be able to stop Poeltl. This is a good game for Poeltl to regain his confidence after playing poorly overall in three of his last four.
Shaq Harrison - Guard, Tulsa. (FD Price $8,000, DK Price $7,900)
Shaq Harrison is a do it all type of player for Tulsa, and playing UConn will scare many off of him, but I see this as the type of game that Harrison's usage will be higher than normal. I expect to see a similar game to when Tulsa played SMU a few games back, as Harrison can add stats to all categories. When on the court, the offense flows completely through Shaq, and him scoring tonight is a necessity if Tulsa will pull off the win here. He is also a safe player due to his high floor, but I do like him to exceed his tag in this one tonight.
Mid-Priced Plays
Tyrone Wallace - Guard, California. (FD Price $7,600, DK Price $8,300)
California is favored on the road today and their best player is priced down to $7,600. His last time out at Oregon State he was $7,500, but Oregon State was a much tougher match-up for Cal. Much of last season Tyrone Wallace was priced in the high 8K range, so this number is certainly affordable, especially on a slate where so many players over high in price. Stanford shouldn't have an answer tonight for Wallace, and he is simply priced to low on Fanduel.
Damion Lee - Guard, Louisville. (FD Price $6,200, DK Price $7,300)
Lee has struggled in his last two game on the road, but this has driven his price backwards and we love this. Lee virtually never sits, and rides a usage rate of 19.9 heading into this home game with Pittsburgh. Louisville is about an 8 point favorite in a game where points are expected, so I really like Lee to perform here. I do like his counterpart Trey Lewis as well, but certainly prefer Lee over him, as Lewis has been Jekyll and Hyde for most of the year and not guaranteed minutes.
Gerry Blakes - Guard, Arizona State. (FD Price $6,200, DK Price $6,200)
Blakes is another example of player coming off some tough road match-ups traveling back home with a good one. While Tra Holder is the best player ASU has, his price has climbed over my comfortable range and Blakes has actually moved in reverse. I like Blake tonight to get back on track and contribute slightly all around in what should be a very fast paced game. Blakes should also get enough scoring opportunities to put him over his value number.
Low-Priced Plays
Jordan Loveridge - Forward, Utah. (FD Price $5,300, DK Price $5,200)
Loveridge's price has also been on the decline following tough road games. I know that he has not exceeded value at this number in his last seven games, but his price has been declining ever since. Utah has a nice spot here to get their key players back on track and Loveridge is certainly one of them. He typically see about 30 minutes and he should come out shooting tonight see as he's back in his home building. I like him to do enough tonight offensivley to make value.
Mark Tollefsen - Forward, Arizona. (FD Price $4,600, DK Price $4,800)
Arizona has some minutes to allocate with Trier being out for 4-6 weeks. While Tollefsen is no guarantee to eat up the bulk of this I do think he gets at least 25-30% of them. Along with the minutes comes extra usage, as Trier was a big scorer for Arizona as well. For Arizona on Fanduel tonight Tollefson makes the most sense, as he plays forward, and there aren't many cheap options there and he has a good shot to actually start this game tonight. Arizona should win easily so fantasy points will come easy to them, and if Tollefson sees over 25 minutes which is expected he won'y hurt you at this price.
Eric Jacobsen- Forward, Arizona State. (FD Price $4600, DK Price $4,700)
As mentioned above, Arizona State will score plenty tonight. Jacobsen is a starter who has had some foul trouble issues recently and this has resulted in less fps than he is capable. When he stays out of foul trobule he typically sees around 25 minutes, and has rebound and block upside along with some scoring. At $4600 he doesn't need to do much, and you will need cheap guys to fit some of the high priced options tonight.
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