Quarterback Analysis: NFL Week 12

Elite Cash Game Play

Carson Palmer is the quarterback I want to own in cash games this week. He has been fantastic all season long and on fire over the past three weeks. In his past three games, Palmer has averaged 351 yards passing a game and has thrown 11 touchdowns. He has averaged 26.15 fantasy points in that time frame. This week, those numbers should continue to soar against a weak 49ers secondary. The 49ers are allowing 278 passing yards a game which ranks them 27^th. They also are allowing 18.1 fantasy points a game depending on the site to quarterbacks and 25.2 total points. Palmer went for 311 yards and two scores earlier in the year against the 49ers as well. This should be a vintage Palmer game, and he is the man I will be paying up for this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 10-20%

If you are playing the Thanksgiving only slate, CAMVP is your top play hands down. He has shown all season long that he can beat you with his arm or legs. He is averaging 228 yards passing and 38 yards rushing a game. He has thrown for 20 passing scores and also run for six more. Newton has scored 19 or more fantasy points in five of his past six games and has not had a game below 16 fantasy points since Week 1. On the short three-game Thanksgiving slate, I am locking in the quarterback with the highest floor.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 30-40%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 30-40%

GPP: 15-20%

Value Cash Game Play

The Saints are off their bye this week, and we all know what that means, fire up the quarterback who is facing them. The Saints are the worst secondary in the NFL. They allow the second most passing yards per game at 293 and the most passing touchdowns at nearly three a game. They have been horrendous the past four weeks allowing 345 yards per game and a total of 17 touchdowns. They did fire Rob Ryan but still do not have the defensive personnel to compete. Things do not get any easier for them this week against Brian Hoyer and the Texans. The Texans attempt the most passes per game and Hoyer has been great this season. He has 13 touchdowns to only four picks, and prior to the Bengals game that Hoyer left injured, had five straight games with 17 or more fantasy points. On DraftKings at minimum price, Hoyer is a must play for me in this matchup.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 10-15%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings

Cash: 10-15%

GPP: 15-25%

I personally will be playing Palmer or Hoyer in all my cash games but Eli Manning is another option to look at. Manning has been great most of this season. He had a two game stretch where he only scored 17 total fantasy points but has put that behind him. Over the past 3 games, Manning has thrown for over 350 yards twice and for 10 touchdowns. He has averaged 24.62 fantasy points in that time frame. He faces a Washington defense that can look good at times and awful at other times. For the season the Redskins are allowing 17.2 fantasy points per game and over the past 5 weeks that number is even higher at 20.6. They just allowed Cam Newton to throw for 5 touchdown passes and Eli should be able to throw for at least his season average of 2 this game.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

Elite GPP Plays

Famous Jameis is my favorite GPP play this week. He broke his two-game streak without a touchdown pass in a big way, throwing for five last week. Despite only throwing a total of three touchdown passes in his previous four games, Winston still scored over 18 fantasy points in three of those games. Like Cam Newton, Winston adds a running element to his game and has four rushing touchdowns on the season. He should have his full complement of receivers healthy for the first time all season and faces a Colts team that ranks 29^th in passing yards allowed per game at 279. There is always a chance that Winston throws a couple of picks, but for the way he has been playing lately, I am more than willing to take a chance he stays hot in a GPP.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 15-20%

On the Thanksgiving slate, if you're fading Cam Newton in GPPs, Rodgers is the man I would look to. He has not played up to his standards the past month or so but has been on fire in the fantasy world over the past three games. In that time frame, he has scored at least 19 fantasy points and thrown eight touchdown passes. He faces a Bears team that he lit up for three scores in Week 1. The Bears have been playing better than they looked in that game but did just give up 250 yards and two scores to Brock Osweiler. In a rivalry game on Thanksgiving in a game the Packers cannot afford to lose, I expect to see a huge game from Discount Double Check.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 10-20%

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 10-20%

GPP: 10-20%

Value GPP Plays

Marcus Mariota facing the weak Oakland Raiders defense is someone I want a piece of this weekend. Mariota, like most rookie quarterbacks, has had his ups and downs. Over the past four games Mariota has been a roller coaster. His fantasy points are 6.76, 33.34, 8.8, and 18.14 in that time frame. He did face a tough Panthers defense in one of those games but the other three games were against less than great defenses. This week against the Raiders, who still rank in the bottom three for passing yards allowed per game at 291 and are fourth in most fantasy points allowed per game with 18.2, I am willing to take a chance that Mariota has one of his better weeks this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 10-15%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 10-15%

With Johnny Manziel on punishment for partying, Josh McCown will get his starting job back for the Browns. McCown has actually been pretty good in the games that he was able to not get hurt in. In those six games, McCown went over 19 fantasy points four times. He is ninth in the NFL in passing yards per game with 271 and that includes a game he only threw for 49 yards after being injured on the first drive of the game. He also brings running upside that you like to see in GPPs and has rushed for over 20 yards three times this season with one score. The Ravens are one of the best matchups for quarterbacks and are allowing the second most fantasy points per game to the position with 19.2. As a contrarian play in GPPs, McCown is a great place to look.

Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%