Quarterback Analysis: NFL Week 13

Elite Cash Game Play

Tom Brady makes it back to the top of my cash game list despite losing another top target to injury. While we are not sure the status of Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola for this Sunday's game, we do know that Tom Brady does not seem to care who he has to throw the ball to. The Patriots are one of the rare teams that live by the next man up motto and have been able to survive injuries on a yearly basis. It helps when you have Brady, who is one of if not the greatest quarterbacks to ever play. Brady has been his normal self this season. He leads the NFL with 28 touchdown passes and 327 yards per game. This week, Brady gets a matchup against an Eagles team that is in disarray and has struggled mightily against the pass recently. In the past four weeks, the Eagles are allowing 275 yards passing and have given up 15 touchdown passes. They have allowed five touchdown passes each of the past two weeks and the quarterbacks they have faced in that time frame do not match up to Brady at all. In those weeks, they faced Matt Casel, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford and Ryan Tannehill. With the Patriots coming off their first loss of the season in a game that they think the refs robbed them of, I fully expect Brady and company to go off against this weak Eagles team.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 10-20%

Cam Newton continues to impress this season and is a close second to Brady for your top cash game quarterback this week. Newton, like Brady, has been fantastic this season. Newton has not scored below 16 fantasy points since Week 1 and has a higher floor than any quarterback due to his elite running abilities. He now has 427 rushing yards and seven rushing scores on the season. The matchup couldn't be better against the weak Saints defense. The Saints struggle to stop the pass and run and rank in the bottom three in each category. They rank next to last in total yards allowed per game at 419 and last in points allowed per game with 30.8. Whether it comes from the air or ground Newton is in store for a huge game as he looks to keep his Panthers undefeated.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

Value Cash Game Play

Fitzmagic has been, simply put, magic this season. He has scored at least 14 fantasy points in all but one game this season and in the game he didn't score 14 he left early due to injury. He has been especially great the past four weeks averaging 20.65 fantasy points. In those four games he has 958 yards passing and nine touchdowns. He has also been turning it up on the ground which is not normally his game and has rushed for 63 yards and a score in those games. He gets one of the best possible matchups on the board against the Giants. The Giants allow the most passing yards per game at 309 yards which is a full 25 yards ahead of the next closest team. They also rank in the bottom third in touchdown passes allowed with 21 this season. If I am spending down from Brady or Newton in cash games, Fitzpatrick is one of the first places I am looking.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 10-15%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings

Cash: 10-15%

GPP: 15-25%

Blake Bortles is in a good spot to produce another great game this week. Bortles has been consistent for much of the season and is averaging 268 passing yards per game to go along with 22 scores. He has at least two touchdown passes in six of his past seven games. He gets a matchup against the Titans who have only allowed 224 passing yards per game but have allowed 20 passing scores. We also know that the Jaguars have no interest in running the ball, especially in the red zone which is going to give Bortles plenty of chances to continue that touchdown streak. While I like Fitzpatrick more in the value tier I cannot argue one bit with playing Bortles.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

Elite GPP Plays

Wilson might be the hottest quarterback in the NFL right now. In his past two games, Wilson has thrown eight touchdown passes and is averaging 302.5 passing yards a game. He brings the running ability you look for in GPPs and only trails Cam Newton in rushing yards for quarterbacks with 399 yards on the season. He faces a tough Vikings defense that is allowing the second fewest points per game in the NFL at 17.6 but has been beatable through the air recently. They have allowed two of their past three opponents to score at least 17 fantasy points at the quarterback position. They also will likely be without their top safety Harrison Smith once again this week which will open up the middle of the field for Wilson. While I do not want to target the Vikings in cash games, I am more than willing to have some bullets in GPPs with the way Wilson has been playing.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 15-20%

Matthew Stafford has been on fire at home recently. In his past four home games, Stafford is averaging 320 passing yards, 2.75 touchdown passes and 27.2 fantasy points. He is at home this week against the middle of the road Green Bay Packers defense. The Packers rank 18th in passing yards allowed per game at 249 and 16th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks with 16.4 per game depending on the site. While the numbers don't jump out at you, the Packers have struggled on the road recently. In their past three road games they are allowing 311 passing yards per game and have allowed four touchdown passes. With the way Stafford plays at home and the Packers recent road struggles I love Stafford in GPPs this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 10-20%

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 10-20%

GPP: 10-20%

Value GPP Plays

Just like the Saints, whenever the Ravens play you have to look at the quarterback facing them as an option. The Ravens have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season at 19.3. They rank 23rd in touchdown passes allowed with 21 and 24th in passing yards allowed per game at 259. Tannehill has been up and down this season but is hot over the past three weeks. In that time frame, he has scored at least 15 fantasy points and thrown at least two touchdown passes in each game. He is coming off a huge 351 yard, three score game against a good Jets defense, but one that was without Darrel Revis. While Tannehill is hot and the Ravens are a great matchup there are too many unknowns with the Dolphins having fired their offensive coordinator this week for me to trust Tannehill in cash games, but in GPPs, at his price, I will be having my fair share of exposure to him.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 10-15%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 10-15%

Jay Cutler with a healthy Alshon Jeffery against the weak 49ers secondary is one quarterback I want exposure to this week. Cutler has been awful the past several weeks, most of those weeks were against great defenses and without his top wide outs. This week, he will have his top wide out fully healthy and does not face a great defense at all. The 49ers managed to hold Carson Palmer out of the end zone last week but still allowed 271 passing yards and over 17 fantasy points to him. The 49ers have been bad much of the season and rank 28th in passing yards allowed a game at 277 and have allowed 17 touchdowns. While I am not a fan of Cutler's price on FanDuel, for only $100 more than site minimum on DraftKings, I am willing to take a chance that we see good Cutler this week.

Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 10-15%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 10-15%