Quarterback Analysis: NFL Week 16

Elite Cash Game Play

This is the last week that we may be able to enjoy the MVP of this season. The Panthers need to win one more game to lock up the number-1 seed in the NFC and they are going to look to do it this week against their hated rival, the Falcons. We all know how well Newton has been playing. Newton is averaging over 25 fantasy points a game, has at least 30 fantasy points and five touchdown passes in three of his past five games and was the first player to ever throw for 300 yards, five scores and rush for 100 more in the same game. The Falcons have been in a tailspin despite the victory last week and are allowing 23.03 fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past three weeks. They faced Newton two weeks ago, and he had his way with them throwing for 265 yards and three scores on only 21 passes. In cash games, I am playing Newton and enjoying the 25-plus fantasy points he is going to bring me.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 20-25%

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 20-25%

GPP: 10-20%

There are a lot of hot quarterbacks, and Big Ben is one of them. He has thrown for over 300 yards in five of his past six games and has at least 22 fantasy points in that time frame. The Steelers still need to win to lock up a playoff spot and will look to do it against one of their most hated rivals in the Ravens. The Ravens happen to not be very good against the pass and have allowed 28 touchdown passes and 19.66 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Both of those numbers are bottom third in the NFL. The last time Ben played the Ravens in the regular season, he went for 340 yards and six scores. While six touchdown passes is asking a bit much, Ben should have no trouble throwing for over 300 yards with two or more touchdowns in this matchup.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

Value Cash Game Play

Matthew Stafford continues to perform at a high level since the changes in Detroit and has gone for at least 16 fantasy points in eight of his past nine games. He has been especially hot as of late and has at least two touchdown passes in four straight games. Stafford gets to face the 49ers this week who have been a lot better over the past month but still rank 26^th in passing yards allowed per game with 262. They also rank 18^th in total points allowed per game with 24.2 and are allowing 17.59 fantasy points a game. I fully expect the old 49ers defense to show up on the road where they tend to struggle and for Stafford to continue his hot streak.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

If you're looking for a steady but unspectacular play, look no further than Mr. Smith this week. Alex Smith is the definition of a game manager, but he is a very effective one. He has not thrown more than 25 passes in four of his past five games and has only gone for over 250 yards twice in that time frame, but he is still averaging 17 fantasy points a game. He has thrown a touchdown pass in four straight games and gets a fantastic matchup against the Browns. They've allowed the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks with 20.19 and have allowed the fifth most passing touchdowns this season with 29. Smith should easily hit value in this matchup in a must win game for the Chiefs.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

Elite GPP Plays

I love Blake Bortles this week. Bortles is hot with four straight weeks with at least 23 fantasy points. In that time frame, he is averaging 299.5 passing yards and 2.75 passing scores. He is even adding points on the ground with two rushing scores and 93 rushing yards in those games. This week he gets the best possible matchup on the board against the Saints who are last or near last in several categories against the pass. The Saints have allowed the most passing touchdowns with 39, the third most passing yards per game with 276 and the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks with 24.36. They have allowed at least three touchdown passes and 22 fantasy points to six of their past eight opponents as well. I fully expect Bortles to make it five straight weeks with at least 23 fantasy points and will be rolling him out in a bunch of lineups this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 15-20%

On the other side of the Jaguars-Saints game that has all the makings of a shootout is Drew Brees. He's been unstoppable at home. Brees has at least three touchdown passes in his past four home games and is averaging 378.75 passing yards in that time frame. He has gone for at least 20 fantasy points in three straight games and at least 23 fantasy points in his past four home games. The Jaguars have been beatable through the air this season and are allowing 261 passing yards per game and have allowed 25 passing touchdowns this season. Brees is dealing with an injury but is fully expected to play and should dominate once again this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

DraftKings

Cash: 5-10%

GPP: 5-10%

Value GPP Plays

If Cousins was playing at home he would be one of my top cash game options against the awful Eagles, but, unfortunately, he is playing on the road, where he has not been very good this season. In away games, he has completed 10% less of his passes and only has six touchdown passes to nine interceptions. He did have a good game last time on the road against the Bears where he scored 22 fantasy points, but he had not scored more than 12 fantasy points in his previous road games. The Eagles are great matchup, however, as they have allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season with 21.17 and third most touchdown passes with 30. Cousins also adds upside in the running game as he actually is second in rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks with five. I am weary of Cousins this week because of his previously mentioned struggles on the road, but with his upside, I am more than willing to take a chance on him in GPPs.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

Philip Rivers bounced back in a big way after two bad games with 311 yards and three scores last week. He scored over 20 fantasy points for the first time in three games and for the second time in five games, and he looks to be in a good spot to produce once again against the Raiders. Rivers went for 336 yards and three scores against them earlier in the season, and the Raiders rank 28^th in passing yards allowed per game with 266 a game. The Chargers also got a couple of their passing threats back last week. I fully expect good Rivers to show up this week as the three games he struggled in were against the Chiefs and Broncos, two of the best defenses in the NFL.

Estimates:

FanDuel

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%

DraftKings

Cash: 0-5%

GPP: 0-5%