Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 5

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 5. Only one player appears in the top five for both sites as a result of likely being thrust into starting duties.

DraftKings

Working backwards like any good countdown, let's take a look at Larry Donnell first. The big tight end is a dirt cheap ($2,900) punt option at tight end. His projection of 10.93 fantasy points isn't going to carry teams to victory, but the salary relief he provides is valuable. Donnell is the second most targeted pass catcher on the Giants (23), per ESPN, and he's a big red-zone threat standing 6-foot-6. The 49ers have been lost defensively, and Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 19th defending tight ends. Donnell is a viable punt.

The Ravens were dealt a damaging blow with Steve Smith Sr. suffering a back injury that will almost certainly sideline him this weekend. Kamar Aiken stands in as the de facto number-one receiver, he of the 24 receptions in his first season in the league (2014) variety. This year, though, he's stepped up and is second on the club in receiving yards (165) while ranking third in targets (18) and receptions (11). Aiken enjoyed his most productive game as a pro in Week 4 reeling in five receptions on seven targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. The Browns are a giving pass defense that's surrendered the 11th most passing yards (1,059) and nine touchdowns while forcing just one interception. Neither Pro Football Focus (PFF) nor FO paint a more favorable picture of the pass defense for the Browns. Justin Forsett will be leaned on heavily as a runner and a pass catcher, but Aiken will get plenty of targets and should easily pay off his modest price tag.

Todd Gurley announced his presence with authority against the division rival Cardinals by rushing for 146 yards on 19 carries in his second game as a pro. He also added a pair of receptions for 15 yards. The Rams drafted him with the 10th pick of the first round in this year's NFL Draft, and he's quickly showcased why they spent a premium pick on him. The Georgia product is a big, nimble runner who has top-10 upside at the position for the rest of the season. His opponent, the Packers, are one of the worst defensive units stopping the run. FO ranks them 31st defending the run while PFF is feeling a little friendlier ranking them 25th. They're yielding a whopping 4.8 yards per carry on runs this season. The lone concern with Gurley is the fact the Rams are big underdogs on the road. Gurley is best used in GPPs, but even if the Rams fall behind, Gurley should be force fed the ball for the bulk of the game.

No Jimmy Graham for the Saints this year has left Drew Brees looking for a new top pass catcher. Most gamers expected Brandin Cooks to make big waves in fantasy this year, but that's yet to come to fruition. Undrafted rookie free agent Willie Snead leads the Saints in receiving yards (240) and is tied for the team lead with one touchdown grab. He's hauled in 16 receptions on 22 targets. He's not an imposing figure and he doesn't have track star speed, but Brees has a history of turning ordinary players into fantasy commodities. The Saints at Eagles contest is tied for the highest/over under of the week (49.5 points), and the game should be a shootout. At $3,000, Snead is grossly underpriced.

Both Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy are expected to be out against the Titans this week, and that means Boobie Dixon will headline the backfield. Rex Ryan is a firm believer in ground and pound football, and the Bills have attempted the seventh most rushes (121) this year. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman will probably call on Tyrod Taylor to do a bit more, and Cierre Wood could get some work as a change-of-pace back, but Dixon is a big plodder who will get all of the goal-line work and the vast majority of carries. Dixon hasn't done much of anything this year, but last year, he totaled 432 yards rushing on 105 carries. His big frame makes him more than capable of being force fed the ball. Dixon's upside isn't through the roof, but the dearth of every-down backs makes a $3,000 feature back gold in DFS.

FanDuel

There isn't any player happier to see Carson Palmer back under center than Larry Fitzgerald. The veteran wide out has turned the clock back and is lighting up secondaries this season. He's tied for sixth among wide receivers in receptions (30), third in receiving yards (432) and first in touchdown grabs (five). He's back to playing like the elite talent he is, but his price tag hasn't caught up on FanDuel. Fitz should be a fixture in lineups of all game types at under $7,500.

Michael Vick was thrown into the fire last week standing in for Ben Roethlisberger as the club's starting quarterback on a short week playing in the Thursday Night Football contest. Vick didn't embarrass himself and completed 19 of 26 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown. He also showed that he's still got some juice left in his legs rushing for 33 yards and eluding rushers. The lefty gets a big-play threat back this week with Martavis Bryant returning from a four-game suspension to open the year. Vick's big arm, ability to run the ball and matchup with the below average pass defense of the Chargers makes him a GPP dart toss with the upside to flirt with 20 fantasy points.

Vick isn't the only cheap quarterback who should flirt with 20 points, Alex Smith is in the same boat. The Bears rank 29th in pass defense at FO and in the middle of the pack in pass coverage at PFF. The Bears have allowed the second most passing touchdowns (10) while picking off just two passes this year. They're also struggling with their pass rush generating only six sacks. Smith is far from an elite passer, but he's competent and surrounded by a trio of tantalizing weapons in the form of Jamal Charles, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. He and Maclin have built great rapport and are clicking on all cylinders the last couple of weeks. The Chiefs are projected to squash the Bears at Arrowhead Stadium. Charles is the most desirable piece of this game to nab, but Smith is a nifty option as well and a Smith/Maclin or Smith/Kelce stack has intriguing upside.

When a player rushes for three touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, it's going to result in a big bump in their projected numbers. Devonta Freeman has done that rushing for three scores in Week 3 against the Cowboys and three more against the Texans in Week 4. He's touched the ball a staggering 54 times (44 carries and 10 receptions) the last two weeks, and he's piled up an eye-popping 342 yards from scrimmage in those games. Tevin Coleman may return this week, but Freeman has usurped the starting running back job and he's going to get plenty of touches again. His price hasn't caught up to his recent production, and a home tilt where the Falcons are big favorites puts him in prime position to get goal-line work again and also get the opportunity to salt away a lead. Freeman is a strong play in cash games and GPPs.

Who is this Anthony Dixon character? He's Boobie Dixon, and he's a bargain at FanDuel like he is at DraftKings. As I noted above, he'll be the feature back if, as expected, McCoy and Williams are out.