Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 9

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 9 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.

DraftKings

Quarterback

None of these quarterbacks costs more than $500 above the minimum QB salary to roster, and each has appeal for reasons beyond their minimal salaries. Marcus Marriota and Jameis Winston are facing teams that collectively allowed 13 touchdown passes ... last week. Derek Carr is enjoying a breakout year in year two, and it's probably not a coincidence it coincides with the club giving him a pair of reliable wide outs (more on one of those wide outs to come) to throw the football to. Tyrod Taylor will be playing in his first game since Week 5, and he'll look to pick up where he left off. Earlier in the year, he was efficient as a passer completing more than 70% of his passes, and he adds value with his legs. He already played at a high level against the Dolphins earlier this year, and an encore would provide a truck load of value to gamers using him on DK rosters. Finally, Jay Cutler will likely be tasked with airing the ball out more frequently in the absence of Matt Forte, and he's playing well this year. The game features a juicy over/under total, and the spread sets up favorably for the Bears playing a bit of catch up, but not necessarily being in predictable passing situations too early in the game.

Running Back

Three of the highlighted backs will be regulars on my rosters and the rosters of many other gamers, judging by the ownership rates from Thursday's FanDuel Mini-Dive. Darren McFadden provided value based on volume in last week's matchup with the stout Seahawks' run defense. This week, he faces another strong defense, but he should once again touch the ball in excess of 20 times, and Matt Cassel's limitations as a passer should net him some cheap points on dump offs. Injury fill-ins often provide value since the pricing hasn't caught up to the role change, and that's the case with Jeremy Langford. Facing the most giving defense to running backs doesn't hurt, either. Finally, Devonta Freeman has been a stud this year, and he's facing the dysfunctional 49ers this week. San Francisco has struggled against the run, and the spread suggests the Falcons could be in a position to salt the game away most of the second half. As it stands, Freeman's going to touch the ball a ton since the team leans on him heavily both as a rusher and a receiver.

Wide Receiver

As promised, one of the Raiders' receivers makes an appearance in this column. That receiver is Michael Crabtree. He's pacing to best 90 receptions and 1,100 yards receiving, and he's looking a lot like pre-injury Crabtree. He's steady, yet his price suggests DraftKings is unaware he's not the same player he was in 2014. Alshon Jeffery, in my opinion, is the most grossly underpriced stud at either site. He's priced outside the top-10 wide receivers, yet he's averaging more receiving yards per game (113.7) than any other pass catcher in 2015. That makes sense, right? Brandon LaFell and Stevie Johnson are identically priced. LaFell makes for the higher ceiling option and my preferred GPP choice between the two since his ownership rate will be possibly less than a third of that of Johnson. Johnson is a nice source of salary relief, too, and he's the higher floor (better cash game) option.

Tight End

If the Redskins got their doors blown off, as oddsmakers expect, they'll be airing it out a lot. Their isn't a pass catcher that Kirk Cousins likes more than Jordan Reed, so from a game flow standpoint, it's easy to see Reed providing value. Antonio Gates is playing at less than 100%, and that's enough to scare me off of him in cash games, but in GPPs, he'll be relied on to ease the burden of the loss of Keenan Allen for the year. In other words, he possesses a sizable ceiling in the pass-happy offense of the Chargers. Delanie Walker isn't the most exciting option at tight end, but he's the most reliable pass catcher for the Titans, and the Titans will be without his primary competition for targets (Kendall Wright) this week. At the top of the heap is my favorite value play at DraftKings this week, Heath Miller. The Raiders have been completely inept "stopping" tight ends this season, and they've allowed the second most DK fantasy points per game, per Pro-Football Reference. Miller's coming off of a season best game in Big Ben's return from injury, and the duo should operate like a fine tuned machine again this week.

Defense

The Broncos have been the best defense in football this year, and they're elite in every way. They're the stingiest defense in terms of yards allowed per play and points per game, they lead the league in sacks and they force turnovers at a high rate. At $3,000, I see zero reason to use another defense in cash games, and they're my favorite play in GPPs, even if they are rightfully owned on around 50% of rosters. That said, the one noteworthy category the Broncos don't lead defensively is turnovers forced, and top honors in that category belong to the Eagles. They're my preferred pivot off of the Broncos in GPPs facing the Matt Cassel led Cowboys.

FanDuel

Quarterback

The fact Tom Brady is both the most expensive quarterback and the best Cafe Value speaks volumes about his projected scoring output. Take a look above, 26.68 FanDuel fantasy points. Yeehaw. The Patriots have the biggest team over/under total at 33 points, and Brady is playing at an exceptionally high level. There are plenty of value at other positions, and he can be budgeted for in all game types. The only other quarterback who isn't a repeat visitor from the DK top five is Cam Newton. The Packers had played at a high level defensively prior to last week, so Newton isn't the safest play. That said, the Packers have been ripped for 4.7 yards per carry, and Cam's excellence with his legs is capable of exploiting that. Furthermore, they were embarrassed by Peyton Manning through the air last week, too. Newton's ability to score with his arm and legs always makes him a high-ish ceiling option in GPPs, regardless of opponent.

Running Back

The three backs who round out the top-five Cafe Value plays at FanDuel differ from those at DraftKings. Doug Martin has been great this year and is bringing back memories of his brilliant rookie season. He ranks sixth in carries (132), fourth in rushing yards (612) and has touched the ball 20 or more times in five of seven games this year, and he has a soft matchup against the Giants. FanDuel awards just 0.5 points per reception compared to a full point at DraftKings, but pass-catching extraordinaire Danny Woodhead is underpriced even with the scoring difference. He's yet another player who moves up the receiving pecking order with Allen out for the year. His ceiling isn't exceptionally high, but he's a strong punt. DeAngelo Williams takes over primary back duties with Bell gone for the year. Williams already showed he has plenty left in the tank filling in for Bell during the first two games of the year. In those starts, he rushed for 206 yards at 4.9 yards per carry and three touchdowns. His ownership in the Thursday contests takes some shine of his star for GPP usage, but he's a great value at his salary.

Wide Receiver

The smaller gap in pricing between the studs and bottom-tier players at FanDuel when compared to DraftKings is once again reflected by the most expensive player at the position showing up within the top-five Cafe Value plays. Like Brady, Julio Jones cracks his position's list. Jones exploded last week against a Buccaneers' defense that ranks dead last defending number-one receivers, per FO. He won't be facing a much stiffer challenge, as FO ranks the 49ers 31st defending number-one wide receivers. Jones is playing at an elite level and leads the league in receptions (70) and receiving yards (892), is second in targets (103) and tied for fourth in touchdown grabs (six). The only knock on him is the potential for the game to get out of hand early, and the Falcons gobbling up clock in the second half. Despite Peyton Manning's struggles this year, Demaryius Thomas is turning in another banner effort with 56 receptions for 695 yards receiving. The lone blemish on his statistical resume is a paltry one touchdown grab. Being shadowed by Vontae Davis isn't ideal, but Davis is having a down year by his standards, and Thomas' size makes him a matchup nightmare for even the elite corners in the league. The matchup will push me off Thomas in cash games, but it should drive his ownership down and increase his appeal in GPPs.

Tight End

The two new faces in this group are Martellus Bennett and Greg Olsen. Bennett's 2015 season more closely resembles his solid 2013 debut with the Bears than his more impressive 2014 second season. Still, he's been solid this year catching four or more passes in six of seven games and besting 45 yards receiving in four games. The game total and spread suggest he could be in a shootout, and the lack of Forte in the offense could provide him a bump in targets and usage this week. Speaking of targets and usage, Olsen is essentially the only reliable pass-catching threat for Newton to air it out to, and Newton has aired it out to his tight end frequently. Olsen's workload and production run laps around the other pass catchers for the Panthers, and he's pacing to set new career highs in targets, receiving yards and touchdown grabs.

Defense

Like at DraftKings, and even at the highest salary for defensive units, I'll be rolling with the Broncos defense in cash games and on the bulk of my GPP rosters. A slightly cheaper alternative that is intriguing is the Patriots. As the biggest betting favorites and playing at home, the Patriots have a high ceiling. Kirk Cousins isn't the model quarterback for taking care of the football, and the Patriots are tied with the Rams for second in the league in sacks (26). If the Redskins are forced into predictable throwing situations, as the spread suggests they will be, the Patriots will have plenty of opportunities to add to their sack total.