Examining Cafe Value: NFL Week 17

If you're unfamiliar with Cafe Value, it is our special sauce of sorts. The Cafe Value accounts for things such as strength of opponent, player cost and Vegas odds. It reveals which players project to offer you the most bang for your buck. Below, I'll highlight the players with the five highest Cafe Values at DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 17 at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and defense.

DraftKings

Quarterback

No team has allowed more DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks this year than the historically bad Saints defense, so it should come as little surprise to see Matt Ryan highlighted. He's very cheap and the game features a big over/under total with the Falcons favored and sporting a monstrous 29.5-point team total. He's a strong play in all game types even though he's completing a mediocre season. The Bills secondary is a make-shift group with a few key injuries. With that being the case, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid play in all game types and commands a minimal salary commitment. The other QB I like in this group, and the one I like the most, is Eli Manning. Manning is one of my favorite options in GPPs with the return of OBJ. Philadelphia has allowed the third most DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks, and the game projects to be a shootout.

Running Back

Rashad Jennings has emerged as a highly-productive back over the last three weeks. During that stretch, he's totaled 262 yards rushing with one touchdown and five receptions for 83 yards. His price makes him a very attractive source of salary relief, and since the Eagles have allowed the sixth most DraftKings points per game to running backs, he's more than just a punt. The Redskins may opt to rest some of their regulars since they can't move up or down in playoff seeding, and that would add to the appeal of using Darren McFadden against them. Run DMC was just one yard short or extending his run of back-to-back games with 100 or more rushing yards to a three-game streak. Over the last three weeks, he's rushed for 310 yards on just 44 carries. Much of the attention has been paid to the pass defense struggles of New Orleans, but they've also allowed the third most DraftKings points per game to running backs this year. Devonta Freeman spanked the Saints the first time the Falcons played them, and he rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries while adding eight receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown. His rushing production has slowed down over the second half of the season, but he contiinues to get a ton of work, and he's heavily utilized in the passing game.

Wide Receiver

The group of to Cafe Value plays are wide receiver isn't overly exciting, but I do love Jordan Matthews. The Giants have allowed the most passing yards per game (297.9) and the third most DraftKings points per game to receivers. Matthews is capping a largely disappointing sophomore campaign with signs of life by catching 14 passes for 263 yards receiving and a pair of scores in his last two games. He's bested 100 yards in each of those two games, and even without Chip Kelly, I am using Matthews in cash games and GPPs. The other receiver who I'm moderately interested in is Keshawn Martin. Julian Edelman is once again out, and both Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola are at less than 100% and not locks to play against the Dolphins. If one or both of LaFell and Amendola are inactive, Martin will once again be thrust into a prominent role in the receiving corps. Last week, he caught seven of 11 targets for 68 yards and rushed for six yards on a carry. At the minimum salary, the bar he needs to clear to provide value is extremely low.

Tight End

There's only one tight end in this group who I'll be using, but boy oh boy is he a dandy. Zach Ertz has balled out in his last three games, and he's closing his third season in the NFL in style. In his last three games, he's caught 26 passes for 298 yards receiving and a touchdown. He should make it a fourth big game against the G-Men this week. The Giants have allowed the second most DraftKings points per game to tight ends.

Defense

With Marcus Mariota and Kendall Wright out, the Titans offense is underwhelming, which makes the Colts an intriguing value play. Zach Mettenberger is a turnover machine with six picks in the four games he's reached double-digit pass attempts. If Jay Gruden opts to sit starters such as DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed and/or Kirk Cousins, the Cowboys make for another excellent value play. Gruden has said healthy starters will suit up and play, but guys like left tackle Trent Williams and DeSean Jackson have been limited in practice and stand out as candidates to sit. Gruden also could, and likely will, opt to pull some of his starters before the conclusion of the game. With news of Todd Gurley being doubtful to play this weekend, the 49ers are suddenly a semi-interesting value play. The game features a tiny 37 point over/under total, and Gurley essentially is the offense for the Rams.

FanDuel

Quarterback

Matt Ryan and Eli Manning are strong choices on FanDuel like they are on DraftKings, so they're in play here, too. Of the three fresh faces, Sam Bradford and Cam Newton are my favorites. Bradford has set single-game passing yardage highs for the year in back-to-back games, and he is clicking with Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz of late. Chip Kelly's dismissal will scare some gamers off, but I still like him quite a bit thanks to his recent play, the high over/under total for the game and the softness of the Giants pass defense (third most FanDuel points allowed per game to quarterbacks and the most passing yards allowed per game, 297.9). Newton's ability to beat teams with his arm and legs has thrust him to the top of the heap for MVP favorites for 2015, and it makes him a high-ceiling play who also possesses a high floor.

Running Back

Devonta Freeman is a carryover from the DK top five, and he's also a strong play at FanDuel. Javorius Allen is a carryover, too, and while I didn't address him above, I'll state that I'm not a fan of him facing the Bengals this week. Cincinnati has been an above average defense against running backs this year, and the Ravens have a pathetic team over/under total. Tim Hightower has been used as a workhorse for the Saints in the wake of Mark Ingram landing on IR. He's bested 25 carries in two of his last three games, and he's caught exactly three passes in back-to-back games. In the last three games, Hightower is responsible for 261 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns, and he's also netted seven receptions for 88 yards receiving. The Falcons have allowed the fourth most FanDuel points per game to running backs, making this a plus matchup for Hightower. DeAngelo Williams has been awesome this season. In nine games as the feature back this season, Williams has averaged 88.11 yards rushing per game and 3.67 receptions for 34.11 yards. The yardage output alone would make him one of the best backs in the league in 2015, but he's also tied for the league lead with 11 rushing touchdowns. The Browns have allowed the most rushing yards per game (135.0), and that adds to the appeal of using Williams in all game types this week.

Wide Receiver

Holy smokes, there are a trio of superstar wide outs in this group and a fourth supremely talented option, too. Antonio Brown has been borderline unstoppable this year when Ben Roethlisberger has been healthy, and he already torched the Browns for 10 receptions for 139 yards and a pair of scores earlier in the year. Brown is my top play at wide receiver this week. My second favorite option at the position this week is Julio Jones. Jones leads the league in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,722). He's also caught eight touchdown passes. His floor is high and his ceiling is through the roof. DeAndre Hopkins will be reunited with the returning Brian Hoyer this week. The first time he played the Jaguars this year, Hopkins exploded for a 10-148-2 line. Football Outsiders ranks the Jaguars 28th defending number-one receivers, and Hopkins is a great GPP pivot off of the likely more popular Brown and Jones. Michael Floyd was a limited practice participant on Friday, and he's listed as questionable. If the Panthers win their game in the 1:00 PM ET time slot, the Cardinals will have nothing to play for since they'll be locked into the number-two seed. What that means for gamers is that they need to check in on Floyd's playing status Sunday morning. If he projects to play, he's a worthy GPP option who's playing great football down the stretch. Floyd has bested 100 yards receiving in five of his last seven games, and one of those efforts was a 7-113-2 line against the Seahawks in Week 10.

Tight End

As his Cafe Value indicates, Zach Ertz provides more bang for your buck on DraftKings, but he remains my favorite option at the position on FanDuel. There isn't a slouch in this group, but I'd consider all non-Ertz tight ends to be GPP plays. Zach Miller is listed as questionable, but he seems to be closer to the probable end of the spectrum. Alshon Jeffery is out, and Eddie Royal is doubtful, leaving Miller as the top dog in the passing attack. He's fared well in a more prominent role in the offense of late, and more looks to be headed his way. Delanie Walker is knocking on the door of his first 1,000 yard receiving campaign, and it hasn't mattered who plays quarterback for the Titans, Walker has been productive. His volume of work, which includes 15 targets last week, makes him one of the highest-ceiling picks at the position. Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in the league, but he's also very expensive. The Patriots feature a juicy team over/under total, and Gronk is far and away the best offensive player for Tom Brady to lean on for the Patriots. That said, even in the absence of Julian Edelman and others, Gronk's targets and usage hasn't gone through the roof. I wouldn't fire more than a bullet or two on Gronk, as I'd much prefer spend up at wide receiver. Finally, Greg Olsen is the unquestioned top pass catcher for the Panthers, and Carolina needs to win in order to hold onto the number-one seed in the NFC. Oddsmakers are projecting a blowout, which could hurt game flow late and result in rest for Olsen down the stretch, but it also leaves open the door for the former Hurricane having a big hand in the Panthers racing out to a big lead.

Defense

For analysis of the Broncos and Patriots, check out this week's The Blitz. Suffice to say, I like both Denver's and New England's defenses this week. I can fully support the other three defenses included as top-five Cafe Value plays, too. I covered the Colts sufficiently above, but the Bengals and Steelers check in as viable GPP options. The Bengals have allowed the fewest points per game (17.5), and the Ravens offense has been ravaged by injuries and was led by Ryan Mallet last week. The Steelers failed to make the most of their plus matchup with the Ravens last week, but they get another crack at facing a bad offense. The Browns are starting Austin Davis at quarterback, and they've struggled to run the ball all year. Simply put, the Browns don't have the offensive talent to exploit the shaky secondary of Pittsburgh.