NFL Sports Betting Toolkit
We are looking ahead at Week 16 to find the elite matchups for wide receivers against corners. Using Pro Football Focus's ratings as a base, we are able to get an advanced look at what matchups we can take advantage of. Defense against opposing WR's is grabbed from FootballOutsiders. They matchups are broken down into the top tier matchups, middle tier matchups, and matchups to fade. Now the opposing cornerback may not always be on the highlighted receiver, but this is a look at who the highlighted receiver will likely see most of the game. Not every number one cornerback covers the opposing team's wide receiver. They usually stay on their side of the field, and on occasion can shadow a number one. I will continue to edit it during the week, if there is given news of a switch in matchups. Blown coverage equals great matchups, zone coverages suggest they are toss-ups, and lockdown coverage is pretty self explanatory.
Blown Coverage
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
Cameron Meredith | D | $4,700 | $5,500 | Bashaud Breeland | F | B |
Julio Jones | A | $8,100 | $8,500 | Daryl Worley | C- | A |
T.Y. Hilton | B | $7,800 | $7,600 | T.J. Carrie | C- | A- |
Allen Robinson | D | $4,600 | $5,600 | LeShaun Sims | C | B |
Stefon Diggs | B | $5,900 | $6,100 | Quinten Rollins | C- | B |
Michael Thomas | B | $6,000 | $6,900 | Vernon Hargreaves | D | B+ |
Julien Edelman | C | $6,900 | $6,700 | Juston Burris | D | B+ |
Tyrell Williams | C | $5,800 | $6,800 | Joe Haden | D | B |
Mike Evans | A | $8,500 | $8,900 | Ken Crawley | F | A |
With Alshon Jeffery in a spot against Josh Norman, I would look for more targets with Cameron Meredith. He has seen eight and 13 over the last two weeks, as Matt Barkley is actually a serviceable quarterback. Meredith is a cheap option, and better suited for DraftKings given the PPR scoring. Bashaud Breeland has allowed a poor 0.31 fantasy points per route.
Julio Jones is back this week, but to an extent where we won't know how healthy he really is. This is a plus matchup against Daryl Worley, and Jones is averaging 0.54 fantasy points per route. There is still some general risk, but this is an excellent matchup. Mike Evans has been healthy, but by the looks of his recent play, he may well have missed time. He has struggled of late, but is still in a prime spot for an outbreak. Ken Crawley is being targeted 22% of the time, and allowing 0.30 fantasy points per route.
The Colts are in for a must win game against Oakland, and T.Y. Hilton is in a great matchup against T.J. Carrie, who is allowing a pedestrian 0.29 fantasy points per route. Sean Smith and David Amerson have given up big points per route, but Dorsett and Moncrief are both rather lackluster in upside. Michael Thomas is another stable mid range option this week, and will draw Vernon Hargreaves, who has allowed the most fantasy points per route among Bucs' corners.
Julian Edelman and also Malcolm Mitchell sit as the primary wideouts for New England, and both draw two of the better matchups of Week 16. I would consider using them in cash games this week, alongside some Patriots stacks. Outside of Darrelle Revis, Jets corners are allowing over 0.30 fantasy points per route. Revis at this stage isn't even someone to shy away from. Joe Haden is another big name corner that really shouldn't keep you away from anyone. He is allowing 0.33 fantasy points per route run against him, and that's who Tyrell Williams will see this week.
Stefon Diggs and Allen Robinson have been quiet, and more so Robinson this entire season. Both are cheap, yet the ceiling is still rather high in my opinion. Diggs might not be 100% healthy, which causes concern, but is a GPP dart throw at these prices. Quinten Rollins has allowed 0.33 fantasy points per route to opposing wideouts. LeShaun Sims will draw Robinson, who has allowed 0.44 fantasy points per route in limited time this season.
Zone Coverage
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
Larry Fitzgerald | B | $6,100 | $6,700 | Jeremy Lane | C- | C+ |
Sammy Watkins | C | $5,000 | $6,000 | Xavien Howard | C | C |
DeAndre Hopkins | C+ | $5,200 | $6,600 | Adam Jones | C+ | C- |
Tavon Austin | F | $4,000 | $4,700 | Keith Reaser | F | C |
Brandin Cooks | C+ | $6,800 | $7,100 | Brent Grimes | B | C+ |
Amari Cooper | B | $6,500 | $7,200 | Vontae Davis | F | C |
I am not really on Arizona this week heading into Seattle, but if you wanted to take a contrarian stab at one of their wide receivers, Larry Fitzgerald is in the best spot. Jeremy Lane has allowed 0.31 fantasy points per route. J.J. Nelson and John Brown are in tougher spots. Staying in the NFC West, the Rams draw a very friendly matchup against the 49ers. Whether they will be able to capitalize on it is a different story. Keith Reaser will fill in this week, and is allowing 0.44 fantasy points per route on the season. Tavon Austin will see him the most, if you wanted to hope for one of those random Austin games.
DeAndre Hopkins might be revitalized with a new quarterback, but this is still a matchup that could go either way. Adam Jones is only being targeted 14% of the time, and allowing 0.20 fantasy points per route. While targets for Hopkins aren't the issue, it's him averaging 0.30 fantasy points per route. Due to his price, and me being a sucker, there is chance that he can provide some upside with someone new under center. Amari Cooper has been quiet of late, and draws Vontae Davis this week. While Davis isn't an auto-fade, he is one of the tougher corners in the league. He is allowing 0.23 fantasy points per route this season, but is being targeted 17% of the time.
Brandin Cooks is coming off his typical high ceiling game, but is also one of the higher priced guys who can drop a dud on you during any game. He will see Brent Grimes at times, but should be moved around quite a bit as usual, so he won't see him all the time. Cooks has enormous upside, averaging 0.41 fantasy points per route. Sammy Watkins will square off against Xavien Howard this week, who is being targeted 20% of the time. Watkins is always an intriguing high upside play.
Lockdown Coverage
WR | Grade | DraftKings | FanDuel | CB | Grade | Matchup Grade |
Alshon Jeffery | C | $6,300 | $7,000 | Josh Norman | B | D |
A.J. Green | B+ | $7,200 | $7,400 | A.J. Bouye | B+ | D |
Terrelle Pryor | B | $4,900 | $6,100 | Casey Hayward | B+ | D |
Jordy Nelson | B | $7,000 | $7,800 | Xavier Rhodes | C+ | D+ |
Jarvis Landry | B | $5,500 | $6,500 | Nickell Robey | B | D |
Brandon Marshall | D | $5,300 | $6,500 | Malcolm Butler | B+ | F |
Tyler Lockett | D | $4,800 | $4,700 | Patrick Peterson | B | F |
As mentioned above, Alshon Jeffery will face Josh Norman, who is one corner I shy away from. He is only being targeted 15% of the time, and allowing 0.21 fantasy points per route. There are better wideouts to target. A.J. Green is another injured wideout who is expected to return this week. A.J. Bouye is being targeted quite a bit, but holding his own, allowing a 0.19 fantasy points per route. If Green was 100% healthy he would remain a GPP option, but for me he is a fade.
Terrelle Pryor will have Casey Hayward on him this weekend, who is allowing 0.32 fantasy points per route. Pryor might have been already off your radar, put if he was, push him off. Hayward has been very solid this season, and is shadowing opposing team's best wideouts. Jordy Nelson is still very much a GPP play this week, but will have a tough task against Xavier Rhodes. Now Rhodes is being targeted more than any other Vikings corner, but is only allowing 0.20 fantasy points per route. Nelson should still flirt with ten targets, and his red zone numbers always give him a reliable shot at a touchdown.
Jarvis Landry will have the toughest matchup against slot-corner, Nickell Robey. He is allowing 0.21 fantasy points per route, and is only being targeted 14% of the time. While Landry is coming off a solid game, the targets are down, and quarterback play could be an issue on the road. Brandon Marshall is expected to see Malcolm Butler, who has allowed 0.25 fantasy points per route. Marshall is averaging 0.28 fantasy points, which is a great indicator of his poor season. Tyler Lockett has posted some high upside games lately, but that could end this week against Patrick Peterson. Lockett moves around, but will see plenty of Peterson. The stud Arizona corner is someone I never target, who is allowing 0.19 fantasy points per route.
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