Treading The Lines: NFL Week 3

As far as chalk goes, week 1 and week 2 could almost be compared to Jekyll and Hyde. There were some plays that paid off, but for the most part the chalk plays did not come through. Weeks like this will happen, and it needs to be understood that weekly you need to find spots to go contrarian to separate from the pack. I loved playing Cam over Eli and was honestly surprised that Eli nearly doubled Cam's ownership on all platforms given how similarly priced the two were. If you've learned anything from these past two weeks it should be that many touts will cover all their bases. They will give you reasons why you should have exposure to everyone, but at the end of the day, it is YOU that hits submit on your lineups. You need to have a process and trust it to be successful at NFL, and be sure to stay disciplined. Vegas is giving away free info weekly and I'm laying it out here for you in these articles. I hope you use this info to your advantage to assist with your projections for each week.

Denver @ Cincinnati -3 O/U 41

Whoa, is this a low total for two teams that can move the ball. Not to say I'm surprised as these are two very good defenses, but this should tell you right away that Vegas respects these two defenses heavily. The spread has moved towards the Bengals from open and this is a very nice bounce back spot for the Bengals. You also have Denver traveling on the road for the first time all year. I cannot trust any Broncos in this spot, and will be auto fading them here. On the opposing side, there also isn't much backing I can give to the Bengals as the Broncos defense is for real. I don't like any players in this game for the price.

Oakland @ Tennessee -1.5 O/U 47.0

Well, this will certainly be one of the top games worth targeting for DFS purposes. You have one of the higher totals of the week with two poor defenses going at it and various starting players low priced. The spread hasn't seen much line movement since the open, but I do believe the Raiders are getting too much respect here. The Titans have looked poor the first two games but Oakland should struggle with Mariotta. I cannot see how these two teams negate each other's attack, but this total is pretty accurate. I could certainly see a 27-21 type of game between these two. As fun as Oakland players are to own, there are a lot of mouths to feed. On Tennessee's side, Mariotta has a solid floor and couldn't ask for a much better spot. Pairing him with Sharpe or Walker will be a popular stack as well.

Marcus Mariotta QB - FD Price $7,700 - DK Price $5,900

Arizona -4 @ Buffalo O/U 47

The NFL is a week to week league. Some weeks teams look unbeatable, and the next week they look lost. I'm not saying that Arizona will look lost on Sunday, but this is the second East Coast game for them in a row. The line opened at 6.5 and has since been bought down to 4. The total hasn't seen much movement, so clearly many people expect this game to be competitive. I just don't think this is a good spot to target AZ players on the road in this spot. Prices are all accurate or even high for most of them, and I'll be avoiding. A player who I like in this game is LeSean McCoy. I understand that the match-up is not ideal and AZ is pretty stingy vs. RB, but his price is great on both sites, and Buffalo will be home and need to score to keep pace in this game. McCoy has averaged 19.5 touches through his first two games, and he is nicely discounted on FD and DK. It is worth noting that he's the 8th highest price RB on DK, yet only the 17th highest price on FD. He is certainly largely in play on FD.

LeSean McCoy RB - FD Price $6,700 - DK Price $6,500

Baltimore @ Jacksonville PK O/U 47.5

I mentioned last week that the Ravens shouldn't be a touchdown favorite against any team in the NFL on the road, and this is a similar scenario. The line has moved a point in the Ravens favor at some books, but this doesn't bother me in the least. The Jaguars are universally hated in the betting world and for good reason, but they are coming up with young talent. The Ravens won last week, but had to climb out of a huge whole against the Browns to do so. The Jaguars are returning home after a very poor road showing at San Diego. I have always been a believer in bounce back games, and I think the Jaguars show up strong in this game. The Ravens haven't been exposed by defensively but they played the Bills at home, and the Browns without a QB on the road. I think the Jaguars test them defensively in this game. Chris Ivory will be back, but it's tough to trust his usage in his first game as a Jaguar. I actually like Blake Bortles in this spot, as he has thrown for over 300 yards in his first two games and TDs have to start coming with how many drop backs he's taking. I also like Allen Robinson to come back to form, but his price is still too high to trust.

Blake Bortles QB - FD Price $7,900 - DK Price $6,500

Cleveland @ Miami -9.5 O/U 41.5

This is a very large line for a team like the Dolphins. I get it that their home, and the Browns are miserable, but wow. I would have picked this line at 7.5, and while it opened at 7, it has moved to 9.5. This virtually rules out all Browns players having the lowest projected total of the day, but not like there were any to really choose from anyway though. As for Miami, I think a lot of people will look to last week and assume Miami will be throwing a lot, however Miami was climbing out of a hole all day last week and was forced to throw. Foster news would be nice, as this make Jay Ajayi a strong spot start if he's out, but if not Landy/Parker are each fine plays. I would not pair them together though. Miami's defense is a very low price on both sites and with Foster news still up in the air, I will recommend them. Miami D will be a very popular play on Sunday.

Miami Defense D - FD Price $4,600 - DK Price $3,000

Washington @ NY Giants -3.5 O/U 46.5

This is a sneaky game to score a lot of points, however the game is not getting bet like it will. The total has moved down a point since open, and has actually moved down to 3.5 for the Redskins. This line and total seem accurate to me, but it being bet down a point does worry me a bit. The Giants defense has looked for real to start the season, and while I'm not a believer of them yet, it's tough to warrant any Redskins mid-tier or stud plays. I do like Jameson Crowder though out of the slot here. Willie Snead found some opening last week, against the Giants, and Crowder has been targeted 17 times over the first two weeks. His price is very reasonable on both sites and certainly an affordable option if you want to pay up at RB. On the Giants site, the thing to certainly look for here is the health of Rashad Jennings. He is saying he's alright to play, but could be somewhat limited. If news comes out beforehand that Vareen will start, he becomes a must play in daily formats due to his price. Either way seems, tough to trust that situation and the WR situation is just as cloudy as Cruz and Shepard are eating into Beckham's numbers, and all three aren't priced ideally. I like Crowder the most in this game for the price.

Jameson Crowder WR - FD Price $5,000 - DK Price $3,800.

Detroit @ Green-Bay -7.5 O/U 48

The line for this game has moved towards the Lions a full point since open, with the total only moving down a 1/2 point. Barely any movement to justify anything, but Green Bay is in a solid bounce back spot after last week. On the Lions side of the ball Marvin Jones has been great to start the year, and his price is rising, but still affordable on both sites. Outside of Jones, no one is target-able from the lines in this game. On the Packers side of things, there are plenty of mouths to feeds in this offense. The Lions though have been getting swallowed up by TEs to start the year, and they were 4th worst last year as well. This makes Jared Cook an intriguing play at his price. I cannot trust Nelson or Cobb for their price, and while Rodgers is safe this week for a good game, there are various cheaper priced QBs who have similar upside this week. Jared Cook makes the most sense from this game.

Jared Cook TE - FD Price $5,000 - DK Price $2,900

Minnesota @ Carolina -7 O/U 43

This line has seen nearly no movement since open with only a 1/2 point shading towards the Panthers bring it up to 7. These are two good defensive teams, but Carolina is home and far more talented. I cannot target anyone on Minnesota especially with how good Diggs has looked early on or even McKinnon who is starting for AP. For the Panthers, its tough to pay for Cam or Benjamin as the prices are accurate and the match-up is not ideal. Cameron Artis-Payne is starting for Carolina and is min price on DK and near min price on FD. He is a solid option as he only needs less than 10 fantasy points to lock in value. The match-up is not great for Artis-Payne, but the projected volume and price are.

Cameron Artis-Payne RB - FD Price $4,800 - DK Price $3,000

San Francisco @ Seattle -9.5 O/U 41

Wow has Seattle underachieved to start the season. If this match-up was week 1, this total would be about 16.5, but instead Seattle has looked poor in their first two games. This line has moved down from 11 and the toal dropped a point as well. Seattle barely beat Miami at home, and looked bad against the Rams on the road. I am not yet sold on Seattle being this poor yet though. I refuse to trust the 49ers in this game, but on Seattle's side there are options. Chistine Michael is an intriguing play, as Rawls his a bit banged up, and so is C.J. Prosise. Russel Wilson is also not a trustworthy option because of his price and that offensive line has been letting him down early on. I like Doug Baldwin in a nice bounce-back spot after suffering a minor injury last week. This 49ers pass defense is suspect, and I expect Wilson to be able to find spots to go downfield to Baldwin. His price is fair on both sites as well.

Doug Baldwin - FD Price $7,200 - DK Price $6,300

Los Angeles @ Tampa Bay -5 O/U 42

This spread has seen some interesting line movement since open with Tampa now a 5 point favorite after opening as a 3.5 point favorite. The total is still the same at most places, but it proves that people like the Bucs to show up here. I cannot trust anyone on the Rams at least until Gurley proves he can find holes through that offensive line. Tampa Bay will be without Doug Martin and Charles Sims is supposed to assume a lead role. He is very affordable on both sites, and has a nice floor for his price, but does come with some risk as he's never been proven as a number one running back in any game in his career. Tampa should be able to move the ball though and Sims should get a good amount of opportunity to gather stats. For his price, it's tough to look away here.

Charles Sims RB - FD Price $6,300. DK Price - $4,900

Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Philadelphia O/U 46

I find the line movement on this game the most interesting on the slate. This line opened at 5.5, but has since dropped to 3.5, hinting at a lot of action on the Eagles. I get that they're home, but on paper their defense seems over-matched in this game. Last year, the Steelers were certainly a team you targeted WRs against, but they have looked sharper early on. I won't be targeting an Eagles here due to their offense is tough to trust right now, Rookie QB, and Mathews splitting touches with Sproles is not ideal. As for the Steelers, DeAngelo has been great just proving how good that offensive line is, but this game I want a lot of Antonio Brown shares. This past week was AB's worst game since 10/18/15 against the Cardinals in which Big Ben didn't play. If you're counting game's Roethlisberger has started for AB, then this was his worst performance since 12/30/12. You see where I'm going with this. AB will bounce back here in a big way win or lose for the Steelers. He's my favorite play on the board even at his price against this suspect secondary.

Antonio Brown- FD Price $9,500 - DK Price $9,600

NY Jets @ Kansas City -3 O/U 42.5

This game has seen the total move down from 44 since open, but the spread has remained the same at most places. These are two good defenses, and thus the low total. The Jets have plenty of mouths to feed and on the road, I'm not looking to guess the right one. I know #1 receivers have been doing very well vs. Revis, but I still refuse to targets players against him, so no Maclin for me either. I like Spencer Ware in this spot, as even though he is splitting carries, he is still seeing more action than West. The Jets are typically stingy vs. RBs, but Ware's price is affordable on both sites, and he certainly has the talent to make you value. This is not a game overall worth targeting, but I don't mind Ware in this spot for his price.

Spencer Ware - FD Price $6,300 - DK Price $5,700

San Diego @ Indianapolis -2 O/U 51.5

This line opened high at 50.5 and has since moved to 51.5 at many sites with the Colts seeing a drop of one point from 3 to 2 as the favorite. Clearly points are of the expectation here, and this is the highest total on the slate. Almost any start on either side is arguably playable on this slate. I will certainly be leaning on Melvin Gordon though, as he is the current bell cow running back for the chargers. His price is extremely reasonable, and little reason to look elsewhere for both sites. Both Benjamin and Williams are certainly other options for San Diego and Hilton and Dorsett are options on the Colts side of things. Andrew Luck is due for a nice bounce back and Frank Gore is under-priced for this match-up. With all the options, I'll certainly be rolling out a lot of Melvin Gordon with a sprinkle of other options if I can afford it.

Melvin Gordon RB - FD Price $7,100 - DK Price $5,800

Chicago @ Dallas -7 O/U 44.5

Either the bears aren't getting enough respect here or Dallas is getting too much respect, but this line is way too high for Dallas. It opened at 4, and as since moved all the way to 7, so Dallas is getting pounded with money. I don't like any Bears options in this game, but Dallas options are certainly there. I could see going Zeke if you could afford it, I just think there are better RB options for the price. I am really looking for Dez to have a solid game against that banged up Bears secondary. I understand Dak is tough to trust, but clearly Dallas will try to get Dez the ball and give him opportunities and against the Bears weak secondary that's all you can ask for. Dez's price hasn't moved much and he isn't exactly cost-effective, but an 8 catch 100 yard game with a TD is a certain possibility, and I expect Dez to breakthrough in this game under the primetime lights.

Dez Bryant WR - FD Price $7,900. DK Price $8,400

Atlanta @ New Orleans -3 O/U 53.5

You couldn't ask for a better Monday night game to have options in after Sunday. This is the highest total of the week and by line close may be the highest total of the year thus far. the total opened at 52.5, but has since risen to 53.5 and the Saints have moved down to a 3 point favorite after opening as a 3.5 point favorite. This is in the dome, so you know points are to be expected from the Saints, and clearly Vegas expects the Falcons to show up as well. I don't feel you can trust the RB situation of the Falcons, but Julio is in a great position here to have a huge game. The Falcons will need to keep pace with the Saints, and are expected to be playing from behind. Even though Julio is nursing a minor injury, he should be in your Sun-Mon slate lineups. For the Saints, Brees at home is always an option along with Brandon Cooks who has great home splits. I'm not in love with these prices, but any Saints stater including Ingram and Snead could well pay off value. The real prize from this game though should be Julio.

Julio Jones WR - FD Price $9,300 - DK Price $9,500