Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 15

Elite Plays

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

The mainstays in the elite section of wide receivers mostly draw tough matchups, or in the case of Julio Jones, I don't trust their quarterback to do enough to allow them to hit or exceed value. With that in mind, and my love of the upper-tier running backs and quarterbacks this week in mind, I'm advocating paying down a bit at wide receiver. It starts right at the top with Fitz. Relative to the other elite receivers, Fitz's price is downright thrifty, but make no bones about it, he's been one of the best players at his position this year.

It's been a resurgent year for the former Pitt Panther, and he ranks third in receptions (96), 12th in receiving yards per game (83.7) and tied for 13th in touchdown grabs (seven). Who knew that moving away from catching passes from John Skelton, Derek Anderson, Drew Stanton and a lengthy list of trash quarterbacks would do wonders for Fitz's production? He and Carson Palmer have been on the same page all year, and the 32-year-old receiver has been both excellent and consistent this year.

Fitzgerald has caught five or more passes in 12 of 13 games and surpassed 60 yards receiving in nine contests, too. Starting with a realistic floor of 11 fantasy points at DraftKings and 8.5 fantasy points at FanDuel is rather nifty, but I wouldn't be highlighting him as an elite play if I thought he was in danger of hitting his floor. The Eagles have allowed the third most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to receivers, according to Pro-Football Reference, and they rank 26th defending number-one receivers, per Football Outsiders (FO). Furthermore, allowing touchdowns to receivers has been a huge problem for the Eagles as they've surrendered the second most in the league (21), and Fitz's size (6-foot-3 and 225 pounds) has come in handy in the red-zone throughout his career. This is a guy who's caught 96 touchdown passes in 183 games after all, and they weren't all long scores, obviously. Fitz is an elite play in all game types this week.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,200

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 10-20%

DraftKings - $7,300

Cash: 15-25%

GPP: 10-20%

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

No one is sleeping on Baldwin's scorching hot run of games of late. Well, almost no one is. Apparently DraftKings is with his comically-low salary of $5,800. FanDuel has stiffened up the pricing on Baldwin, but he remains a strong play with a soft matchup against the Browns this week.

The Browns placed Joe Haden on IR, and they already ranked 22nd defending number-one receivers, per FO. Pro Football Focus (PFF) pegs Baldwin to draw K'Waun Williams in coverage when he plays the slot, and Williams ranks 50th at cornerback, according to PFF. The Browns have coughed up the ninth most DraftKings points per game and the eighth most FanDuel points per game to receivers, so no matter how you slice it up, receivers have been killing them all year.

Getting back to Baldwin's heater, though, he's been a stud since the Week 9 bye. In his last five games, Baldwin has 40 targets resulting in 30 receptions for 515 yards and nine touchdowns. Those numbers amount to averages of eight targets for six receptions, 103 yards receiving and 1.8 touchdowns per game. Already without Marshawn Lynch, the club lost Thomas Rawls to injury as well in last week's contest. The result is that Seattle re-signed Bryce Brown and will rely on him as their starting two-down running back with Fred Jackson serving as the third-down back. The castoff-Bills backs aren't a formidable duo, and that could result in an uptick in work for Wilson and Baldwin until the game gets completely out of hand (and it should). Baldwin should immediately be locked into cash games rosters on DraftKings, at least (not to say he's a bad play in cash games at FanDuel, because he's good there, too), and not even a high ownership rate should dissuade gamers from locking in his upside in GPPs and both sites.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,400

Cash: 20-30%

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $5,800

Cash: 35-45%

GPP: 25-35%

Value Plays

Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs

In another case of DraftKings pricing silliness, Maclin remains under priced. He also looks like a slight bargain checking in outside the top-20 salaries at wide receiver on FanDuel, too. In his first year with the Chiefs, he got off to a quiet-ish two-game start before a three-game heater in Week 3 through Week 5. He returned to a slumber from Week 6 through Week 11, but he's heated back up again. Since Week 12, Maclin has been targeted 30 times, caught 24 passes and rattled off 323 yards receiving with three touchdown grabs. During that same three-game stretch, Alex Smith attempted 75 passes. Exactly 40% of Smith's passes in the Chiefs' last three games have been directed at the apple of his eye. He's the unquestioned number-one receiver for the Chiefs, and another steady diet of throws in his direction should result in a big game against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to receivers. Price considered, Maclin is as appealing at wide out as both Fitzgerald and Baldwin.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,700

Cash: 20-25%

GPP: 17-22%

DraftKings - $5,500

Cash: 25-30%

GPP: 20-25%

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Lockett is a rookie, and he's coming off the two highest receiving yardage outputs of his career. With that in mind, he's probably not quite ready to comfortably slot in cash game lineups, but he's a great flier -- which is fitting since he can jet down the field at high speeds -- in GPPs, and a cheap one at that. Over the last two week, Lockett's caught 13 of 14 targets while tallying 194 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns. Last week, he eclipsed 100 yards receiving for the first time in a game. The same juicy matchup with a horrendous Browns' secondary that makes Baldwin appealing makes Lockett appealing. In addition to Lockett's explosive play-making ability as a receiver, he's also housed a punt return and kickoff return this year, adding to his ceiling. I like Lockett a little bit better at DraftKings due to the presence of a FLEX, but he's also worth sticking on some GPP rosters on FanDuel as well.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,000

Cash: 5-15%

GPP: 5-15%

DraftKings - $4,200

Cash: 5-15%

GPP: 5-15%

GPP Plays

Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants

OBJ finds himself a little lower in this column than usual. He's not ranked among the elite wide receiver plays this week through no fault of his own, but he draws all-world cornerback Josh Norman. PFF ranks Norman as the second best cornerback this year, and FO ranks the Panthers second defending number-one receivers. Perhaps the Giants move OBJ around and use him in the slot a bit, presumably making life a bit more difficult on Norman since he won't have the sideline to aid him in coverage. Regardless, you're not using OBJ for his floor in a tough matchup this week as the most expensive receiver on DraftKings and FanDuel. You're using him chasing his ceiling, a ceiling that's more glorious than that of the Sistine Chapel.

Beckham Jr. is doing things never previously seen by a receiver through his first two years in the league. Through 25 games played, OBJ has caught 24 touchdown passes and averaged 105.0 yards receiver per game on 14.9 yards per reception. What he's doing of late is even more impressive. He's riding a six-game streak of besting 100 yards receiving in which he's scored at least one touchdown in five of the games. This isn't the equivalent of a hitting streak where the batter consistently goes 1-for-5 with a single, either. OBJ has been blowing by the 100-yard mark and has surpassed 140 yards receiving in three straight games. Over the last six weeks, he's averaging 132.67 yards receiving per game on 7.17 receptions per game. With eight touchdown grabs in that time frame, he's besting a touchdown per game as well. There will still (rightfully) be a number of gamers who throw caution to the wind and use OBJ, but his ownership should be slightly depressed in GPPs thanks to what I'll call The Norman Factor. Getting OBJ's upside at even a slightly suppressed ownership rate is worth at least a few GPP bullets.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9.100

GPP: 15-20%

DraftKings - $9,200

GPP: 15-25%

Ted Ginn Jr., Carolina Panthers

It's not without some uneasy feelings in the pit of my stomach that I make this GPP tout, but grabbing a player with shortcomings who has a chance to provide an edge thanks to low ownership isn't supposed to make you feel all warm and fuzzy and comfortable inside. Often times when a rookie or second-year baseball player struggles as the league adjusts to him, onlookers say the book is out on him. Well, Ginn isn't young, but the book has been written on Ginn and it's in pen (and not that erasable junk). He's a gifted athlete who can pop the top off of defenses, but to say his hands leave something to be desired would be an understatement. Ginn has routinely dropped very catchable passes throughout his career and in recent weeks even.

Ginn's a home-run hitter, though, and he has nine receptions for 20+ yards as well as eight touchdown grabs. He ranks second on the Panthers in receptions (37), targets (78) and receiving yards (645) while leading the team in touchdown grabs. He's caught half of his touchdowns over the last two weeks, and while his seven receptions in those games won't create a frenzy, they've totaled 200 yards. Look no further than his bagel in Week 12 for what his downside is, but Ginn is all about ceiling. With Greg Olsen banged up and Jonathan Stewart ruled out, Cam Newton could rely even more on his miscast number-one receiver. A few extra looks against the Giants could prove huge since no team has allowed more passing yards per game than the 308.4 the G-Men are coughing up. The Giants have, predictably after noting all the passing yards they've given up, allowed the fifth most DraftKings points and sixth most FanDuel points per game to receivers in 2015. The combination of just three receiver spots and no FLEX as well as his price on FanDuel make me less enamored with Ginn on FanDuel than DraftKings, but I imagine that sentiment will be shared by other gamers making him an even lower owned option there.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,600

GPP: 3-8%

DraftKings - $4,600

GPP: 7-12%