Wide Receiver Analysis: NFL Week 9

Elite Plays

Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants

OBJ's rookie season was so phenomenal that ranking 10th in receiving yards (654), tied for eighth in receptions (50) and tied for first in touchdown grabs (seven) is viewed by some as a disappointing follow up. The second-year receiver has battled injuries this season, but the hamstring wasn't bothering him last week when he turned in an 8-130-3 performance, his best of the year. It was OBJ's third game eclipsing 120 yards this year, and he's reeled in four or more receptions in every contest. The second-year pass catcher is having an excellent year, and he has a great chance at exploding again this week facing the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranks dead last, per Football Outsiders (FO), defending number-one wide receivers. Their ineptitude defending number-one wide outs was on full display last week when Julio Jones torched them, and I fully expect OBJ to do the same. He should be a staple of all lineup types at both FanDuel and DraftKings, as injuries have created plenty of value plays to complement Beckham Jr.'s sizable salary commitment.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,000

Cash: 20-25%

GPP: 20-25%

DraftKings - $8,800

Cash: 25-30

GPP: 20-25%

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

The only knock on Jeffery this year is that he's missed games due to injury, but in the world of DFS, those missed games don't hurt the way they do in season-long leagues. He's played like a stud in the three games he's been healthy. In fact, Jeffery leads all qualified receivers with 113.7 yards receiving per game. He's averaging over a dozen targets per game, and he's caught 23 passes including a pair of scores. Since returning from injury, Jeffery has totaled 18 receptions on 26 targets for 263 yards receiving and both of his touchdowns in two games. He and Jay Cutler have been on the same page, and they have a favorable matchup against the Chargers this week. The Chargers rank 28th defending number-one receivers, per FO. Jeffery should continue his heater this week, and he's grossly underpriced on DraftKings while featuring a fair to slightly underpriced salary on FanDuel.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,900

Cash: 20-25%

GPP: 20-25%

DraftKings - $6,700

Cash: 25-30%

GPP: 20-25%

Value Plays

Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders

Crabtree is enjoying a resurgent season in his first away from the 49ers. He's pacing to surpass 90 receptions and 1,100 yards receiving in year one with the Raiders, and he's been rather consistent receiving six targets or more in all seven games and seeing eight or more targets in six contests. His pricing at FanDuel and DraftKings is glacially slow catching up to his 2015 production, and with Derek Carr performing at a high level in year two, Crabtree should continue to play at a high level.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,800

Cash: 15-20%

GPP: 12-17%

DraftKings - $4,900

Cash: 12-17%

GPP: 10-15%

Stevie Johnson, San Diego Chargers

As I alluded to above, injuries have created some bargain plays, and Johnson is one of those bargain plays. Keenan Allen is out for the remainder of the season with a lacerated spleen. Antonio Gates remains banged up, too, and he played on just 33 offensive snaps last week. Others are going to have to step up in the passing game. Malcom Floyd did last week, and I expect Johnson to emerge as one of Philip Rivers' favorite targets. Johnson has been highly effective playing with lesser quarterbacks throughout his career, and Rivers is an elite quarterback. The Chargers feature the third highest team over/under total (26.5 points) this week, and Johnson is one of the cheapest pieces of exposure to that.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,400

Cash: 2-7%

GPP: 2-7%

DraftKings - $3,200

Cash: 5-15%

GPP: 5-10%

GPP Plays

Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

Jones could just as easily be listed with the elite plays at wide receiver, but of the trio of wide outs considered, his team is the biggest favorite (-7 points). The fact the Falcons could blow out the 49ers creates some potential game flow issues that OBJ and Jeffery are unlikely to face, and that makes Jones more of a GPP play than a cash games target. Throw in the fact that Jones is the most expensive wide receiver at both sites, and that was the nail in the coffin for where he was included in this piece. That said, he's still a stud and his ceiling is as high or higher than anyone else featured. The 49ers are allowing the fifth most DraftKings fantasy points per game and the fourth most FanDuel fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2014. They also rank 31st defending number-one wide receivers, per FO. Oh, and Jones is pretty darn good himself. He ranks first in receptions (70), second in targets (103), first in receiving yards (892) and tied for fourth in touchdown receptions (six) in the league. Suffice to say, he's playing at an elite level. He's worth budgeting for on a handful of GPP rosters, and as the ownership estimates indicate, I expect him to be lower owned than both OBJ and Jeffery, which creates a potential edge if you pivot off of the aforementioned duo to the Falcons' number-one wide receiver.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $9,200

GPP: 12-17%

DraftKings - $9,300

GPP: 15-20%

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings

I've always been the type who prefers get the bad news before the good news. With that in mind, there is some bad news with Diggs this week. For starters, his price boost on FanDuel removes him from the bargain bin. Also, he has a tough matchup with a stingy Rams' defense that's allowing the sixth fewest DraftKings fantasy points per game and the fifth fewest FanDuel fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. That said, there's still a lot to like about Diggs. First of all, he's already fared well against a stouter defense. Diggs first NFL game was played against the Broncos, the second stingiest defense for wide receiver scoring. The rookie receiver managed six receptions for 87 yards receiving against the loaded Broncos' secondary. Also, Diggs' volume of work is insane. He's averaging 10 targets, just over six targets and 104.8 yards receiving per game. That's elite production, yet, even with the price hike, Diggs' salary falls well short of the studs. Four games does not make a stud, but Diggs is emulating one thus far.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $7,400

GPP: 15-25%

DraftKings - $5,300

GPP: 25-30%

Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints

Snead is dinged up and dealing with a knee injury, but the expectation remains that he'll play. Obviously, keep tabs on his status heading into the weekend. The Saints' passing attack was clicking on all cylinders last week, and it's been rolling most of the year. Snead has been a surprising contributor, and he ranks second on the Saints in receiving yards (531) and targets (53) and third in receptions (35) while tying for he team lead in touchdown receptions (three). Unlike Diggs, Snead hasn't seen a huge price bump and remains a bargain play at both FanDuel and DraftKings. And as Jason noted earlier in the week, Snead draws a favorable matchup with Jason McCourty this week. Snead provides a lot of bang for your buck.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $6,100

GPP: 7-12%

DraftKings - $4,800

GPP: 10-15%

Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots

No team has a bigger over/under total this week than the 33 point total featured by the Patriots. In fact, they hold a five point edge over the Saints' total of 28. Yikes. Oddsmakers clearly expect the host Patriots to spank the visiting Redskins, and what better time to get LaFell extra work to expedite the process of shaking off rust than in a blowout win? The correct answer is that there isn't a better time. Tom Brady is clowning the rest of the league, and he's targeted LaFell 15 times in the last two games. After dropping six passes two weeks ago, LaFell was sharper reeling in four of seven targets for 47 yards. Last year, LaFell had a career year totaling 74 receptions for 953 yards receiving and seven touchdown grabs. He's a considerably better player than his price tag would suggest, at least when he's in tip-top form. Maybe he's not quite there yet, but if he's not far off, he'll make for a sneaky good source of salary relief and upside.

Ownership Estimates:

FanDuel - $5,200

GPP: 2-7%

DraftKings - $3,200

GPP: 2-7%

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